Football
Predictions from Bodogfantasy.com
February 3rd, 2006 8:00
AM ET
Preview Superbowl XL
Sunday, February, 2006, 6:00 p.m. ET
Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
(14-5)
After two solid weeks of hype,
Hank Jr. doesn't have to ask. Yes, we're ready
for some football!
So forget about Media Day, the
Rolling Stones, the guacamole… let's talk
about the game.
Preview
SuperBowl XL - When the Steelers have the ball:
The Bus may be getting all the attention, but
the fact of the matter is that it's Ben Roethlisberger
who has delivered the Steelers to Detroit.
The Steelers relied primarily
on their ground game and defense during the
regular season, but in the playoffs have thrived
thanks to Big Ben's passing. Roethlisberger
has posted a jaw-dropping 124.8 passer rating
this postseason, tossing seven scores and rushing
for another while completing almost 70 percent
of his passes.
And given that the Seahawks sport
one of the league's best run defenses—and
that fully 80 percent of the offensive touchdowns
Seattle has allowed this season have come via
the air—the Steelers will have to ask
Big Ben to do it one more time. And Pittsburgh
is okay with that.
The Steelers are averaging just
3.2 yards per carry in the playoffs after rolling
to a 4.0 mark in the regular season. Jerome
Bettis and Willie Parker have combined for 89
carries but just 269 yards, barely three yards
per carry. Meanwhile, Seattle has surrendered
just 95 yards on the ground in two games. As
such, it's tough to see either Bus or Parker
producing much in the way of yardage.
But that's not what the Steelers
have asked for from their ground game this postseason.
They're perfectly comfortable letting Big Ben
throw the ball early and getting a quick lead,
which allows them to both run the ball and milk
the clock on offense and apply pressure defensively
when teams are forced to throw the ball downfield.
So while Bettis may be getting
the attention for his homecoming, and he's a
virtual lock to score a short-yardage touchdown,
neither he nor Parker should expect more than
15 carries or 65 yards on the day. Ideally for
Pittsburgh, the bulk of those carries will come
in the second half as the Steelers protect a
lead.
That leaves the onus for producing
points on Roethlisberger, the second-youngest
quarterback to start a Superbowl game. After
struggling last postseason, he's looked like
a seasoned veteran this time around—and
not just because of the Grizzly Adams beard.
Big Ben has been accurate, he
hasn't made mistakes (just one pick in 72 postseason
attempts), and most importantly he's made the
correct reads. Certainly, Ken Whisenhunt's play-calling
has helped put Roethlisberger in situations
to be successful, but this is clearly not the
same quarterback who was picked off five times
in two games last postseason.
Perhaps most importantly for
the Steelers passing game is the fact that Hines
Ward is getting some help. Oh, he's still the
guy Big Ben wants to throw the ball to in every
key situation, but Antwaan Randle El (nine grabs
and a touchdown), Cedrick Wilson (eight catches,
196 yards, and two scores) and Heath Miller
(seven for 107 and a touch) have made opposing
defenses pay for focusing too many resources
on Ward. Even Parker has gotten into the mix,
catching nine balls out of the backfield.
And when teams don't keep tabs
on Ward, he's burned them for 10 catches, 137
yards, and two scores.
Expect Roethlisberger to continue
to spread the ball around, unless for some reason
the Seahawks choose not to lock down Ward, in
which case give him the MVP trophy right now.
Big Ben has all but patented a stat line in
the vicinity of 20-for-25 for 210 yards and
two touchdowns, and those sound like reasonable
expectations for Super Sunday.
Preview
SuperBowl XL - When the Seahawks have the ball:
Blame the late starts, the Great Northwest location,
or plain old "West Coast bias"; whatever
the reason, despite 15 wins and the fact that
they were the NFC's top seed the Seahawks are
the Rodney Dangerfield of this Superbowl.
Oh sure, everybody knows about
Shaun Alexander. He's put up gigantic numbers
again this season, thanks in no small part to
a dominant offensive line that features tackle
Walter Jones and soon-to-be-extremely-rich guard
Steve Hutchinson. But the Steelers seem extremely
well equipped to at least slow down the 2006
MVP.
Alexander has struggled against
defenses that match up well physically with
his line, and the Steelers' front seven (plus
a hard-charging Troy Polamalu) do just that.
Consider the games in which Shaun struggled
this season: 73 yards against Jacksonville,
61 against Dallas, even 98 (for Alexander this
year, that was struggling) against the Redskins
in the regular season. All those defenses were
able to stand their ground against the Seahawks,
closing down cutback lanes and bottling Alexander
up. Note that those three foes were also the
only clubs to keep Mr. Touchdown out of the
end zone this year (though truth be told it
took a concussion in the playoffs for the Redskins
to shut him out).
So, if the Steelers are able
to contain Alexander, likely keeping him under
the century mark for just the seventh time in
19 games, are the Seahawks doomed? Hardly. Matt
Hasselbeck has been every bit as good in the
playoffs as Roethlisberger has been for the
Steelers, albeit with significantly less hair.
He, too, has a triple-digit passer rating (109),
a solid completion percentage (66.7), and few
mistakes (he hasn't thrown a pick since December
11). And if the Steelers take away the run and
force Hasselbeck to beat them, he's certainly
up for the challenge.
The real key for Hasselbeck will
be remaining upright in the face of Blitzburgh's
pressure. His talented offensive line will have
its hands full, but he has enough options to
spread the field and find the single-coverage
matchup to exploit. Darrell Jackson, fresh off
a knee injury that cost him most of the regular
season, has been his favorite playoff target,
but tight end Jerramy Stevens has found success
working the middle of the field as well. That's
an area the Seahawks may be able to take advantage
of if Troy Polamalu creeps too close to the
line of scrimmage to stop Alexander or comes
hard on a blitz.
And while neither Bobby Engram
nor Joe Jurevicius have been called on to do
much this postseason, both are certainly capable
of stepping up when necessary. That's a lot
of targets to cover, especially if the Steelers
are already bringing an extra guy or two on
the pass rush.
The Steelers allowed 11 of 16
opposing quarterbacks to throw for at least
200 yards this season and are giving up 233
passing yards per game in the playoffs. Given
the situation, not to mention an average of
270 passing yards per game, Hasselbeck is in
line for another solid postseason performance;
240 yards and at least a touchdown wouldn't
be surprising.
But if the Pittsburgh blitz is
getting to Hasselbeck before he's getting the
ball into the hands of one of his downfield
targets, his individual numbers may go up (out
of desperation) but it won't bode well for the
Seahawks.
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