PATRIOTS VS BRONCOS PREVIEW

Saturday, January 14, 2006, 8:00 p.m. ET
New England Patriots (11-6)
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Denver Broncos (13-3)

The Patriots bring their 10-game playoff winning streak into the Mile High city, where earlier this season the Broncos mixed big plays and hard running to defeat New England 28-20. But the Pats are at least a little bit healthier now, and any time the two-time defending Super Bowl champions swagger into your house they bring with them Mystique and Destiny—no, not Tom Brady's latest Hollywood starlet girlfriends, but the aura of a champion. Will the thin air and Denver's vaunted ground game be enough to derail the Patriots' playoff express?

When the Patriots have the ball: You don't post the highest playoff winning percentage in NFL history by being stupid. Bill Bellichick is going to take one look at how his running game stacks up against the Broncos and their second-ranked run defense, turn to Brady and say, "Take us along for the ride, son."

Not that Bellichick hasn't been doing that all year long, of course. In the earlier matchup with the Broncos, New England ran the ball 19 times—just seven after halftime when they faced a 21-3 deficit. Corey Dillon didn't play at all in that contest, but he appears to still be hobbled by whatever mysterious injury he's had all season. Patrick Pass did the damage in the earlier tilt, with 153 yards from scrimmage, but it's likely his receiving yards will go to Kevin Faulk—who was also unavailable for the earlier meeting—and his rushing yardage fall primarily to Dillon.

However, don't expect Corey to carry the Patriots offense—not against a defense that allowed 89 rushing yards per game (78 at home) and a total of nine rushing touchdowns (just three in Invesco). In fact, with Dillon limited to 40 yards on 17 carries last week, Faulk contributed 96 yards from scrimmage and will in all likelihood be a bigger component of the New England offense this week as well.

That leaves the offensive onus on Brady—essentially, where it's been all season long. Brady has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of the Pats' last five games, the only exception being the regular-season finale against Miami when he hit the sidelines after just eight passes. He had 299 and a touch earlier this year against the Broncos, and with little expected from the ground game he's a solid bet to match or exceed that number.

With Brady, the question is rarely if he'll throw for 250 and two; it's who will be on the receiving end. A dozen different Patriots have caught scoring strikes from Captain America this year, so if one of the options on your tip sheet is "field," that may be the way to go. Brady always seems to find David Givens in the postseason—or at least he has for a touchdown in each of their last six playoff tilts—so he's a good call for a score. Others? You may be better served by throwing a dart at a Pats roster, but we'll recommend Faulk for a score, seeing as Pass had the big day earlier against Denver and the Broncos surrendered three running back receiving scores this season.

Plenty of additional Patriots will record between one and five catches on the afternoon; that list includes Ben Watson, Deion Branch, Troy Brown, Tim Dwight, Andre Davis, Mike Vrabel, Irving Fryar , Randy Vataha… wait, wait, let's not get carried away. You can be reasonably certain, however, that you won't get big individual performances from any of these pass-catchers.

Of course, if it comes down to a field goal the Patriots have one of the greatest clutch kickers of our generation, Adam Vinatieri. Vinny actually missed a field goal the last time these teams met, but before you hit the panic button consider that it was a 53-yard attempt as time expired in the first half; he's missed just two of 14 attempts since that gaffe.

When the Broncos have the ball: It's no secret the Broncos like to run the ball a little bit. They finished second in the NFL in rushing this season and were particularly dominant at home, where they averaged 35 attempts and 145 yards per tilt. They also scored 13 rushing touchdowns at Invesco.

Enter the Patriots, who since All Pro defensive tackle Richard Seymour returned to the lineup have been back to their old run-stuffing selves. Between Larry Johnson's 112 in week 12 and Ricky Williams' 108 (against a lot of backups) in the regular season finale, the Patriots allowed a grand total of 101 rushing yards. That's total. In four games.

Nonetheless, expect Mike Shanahan to use both Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell to get the Broncos rolling on the ground. Even Denver's worst rushing efforts at home—98 yards in the season opener against the Chargers' top-ranked run defense, 96 yards against an oddly motivated Ravens' squad that can still D up with anybody—indicate they'll do whatever it takes to run the football. Saturday's numbers will likely be closer to the lower end of triple-digits, but between Anderson inside and Bell outside—and the, uh, unique technique of the Denver linemen—there should be holes to exploit.

The duo essentially split carries in the last meeting, with Bell ripping off a 68-yard gain that propelled him to a 114-yard afternoon. He's likely better equipped to battle the Patriots, who use Seymour and Vince Wilfork to stuff the middle and whose presence may negate Anderson's power inside game. Both backs scored in the earlier meeting, as did fullback Kyle Johnson on a goal-line reception; with Seymour back, Bell is the better bet to score because if he gets through the line and Tedy Bruschi can't get him, he's probably gone.

Running the ball has been the key to earning Jake Plummer the "No Mistake Jake" moniker; funny how the interceptions go down and the wins go up when you don't have to ask Jake to force the ball into coverage. Plummer's numbers in 2005 were down significantly from his previous campaign in Denver, except in the notable areas of completion percentage, passer rating, and interceptions. Yes, Jake is "managing the game," picking his spots to throw downfield and using that little rollout the Broncos love to get out of the pocket and create passing lanes.

The Broncos would love to keep Plummer's passing to a minimum, like they've been doing all season; Plummer has completed more than 20 passes just once since week two and hasn't attempted as many as 35 since then, either. You know the Patriots would love to game plan to force Jake to beat them, but that would put a great deal of pressure on a secondary that's been ravaged by injury for the second straight season. Instead, the Pats will hope Seymour and Wilfork can provide pressure up the middle, bring Willie McGinest off the edge, and try not to expose their secondary for any longer than necessary.

In the earlier game, Plummer took advantage of a couple opportunities to throw deep, connecting with Ashle Lelie on a 55-yard strike and Rod Smith for a 72-yard gain. With the Pats expected to crowd the box looking to stop the run, Plummer will likely try to go up top early again on Saturday. Smith is the most reliable target, Lelie the more explosive of the duo, and both should be deep-ball targets this weekend.

However, after a couple home runs loosen up the line of scrimmage, expect Plummer to slip back into the familiar "roll out and hit the tight end" mode. Tight ends could be popular targets because the Patriots have essentially run out of safeties, and their defensive backfield misses the hard-hitting presence of Rodney Harrison. As New England's own Ben Watson proved last week, a defensive back bouncing off a tight end can all of a sudden turn a short gain into a game-breaking touchdown.

If it comes down to a kicking contest, the Broncos won't be ill-equipped as Jason Elam still swings a strong leg. He's missed just once at Invesco since the end of September and 10 of his 24 treys came from 40 yards and out. Plus, no one plays the thin mountain air like the former Rainbow warrior.

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