PANTHERS VS GIANTS PLAYOFF PREVIEW

January 7, 2006 4:00 AM ET

Sunday, January 8, 2006, 1:00 p.m. ET
Carolina Panthers (11-5) at New York Giants (11-5)

The NFC East champion Giants lost only once at home this season, and it took a minor miracle (punt return touchdown, interception return touchdown, kick return touchdown) for the Vikings to pull off that upset. Tiki Barber, Eli Manning, Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress, Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora…the Panthers might as well stay at home and watch "Dancing With The Stars," right?

Not exactly. John Fox's boys rolled through St. Louis and Philadelphia on their way to the Super Bowl in 2003, and they'll hardly be intimidated or awed this Sunday. The Panthers went 6-2 on their road this season, and they bring a strong defense and the league's top receiver to New York.

When the Panthers have the ball: Many people recall the 2003 Super Bowl march as a coming-out party for Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith, but we haven't forgotten that the Panthers also won with the run. Fox's club notched a ground score in all four of those postseason games, and they managed 216 and 155 rushing yards in road wins over the Rams and Eagles. This season, the Panthers were a mediocre running team, ranking 30th in the league in yards-per-carry (3.4) despite beating up on the Falcons and Saints lowly run-stopping units.

It would behoove Fox's club to grind the ball this Sunday, though. For one, it's always nice to be able to run on the road, but more importantly, the Giants will once again be without middle linebacker Antonio Pierce. He suffered a high ankle sprain in week 14, and if we include that contest, the Giants have allowed 175, 188, 156 and 25 rushing yards over the last four games – and that last effort came against an Oakland club who attempted 15 runs with 33-year-old fullback Zach Crockett. In other words, we're ignoring that aberration.

DeShaun Foster, who scored twice during the 2003 playoff run, managed 165 yards against the Falcons last Sunday despite his toe injury, and we expect him to carry the load again, especially after being upgraded to probable on Friday. He's averaged just over 78 yards since becoming the starter, and he'll carve out at least that amount against this struggling run defense. Also, as Fox often does when the ground game is working well, Nick Goings will likely chip in a handful of carries to, as the saying goes, keep the ball rolling. A touchdown is not a given for a team that lost bulldozer Stephen Davis, but if the Panthers do run one in, count on Foster getting the call.

While their struggles against the run are a recent trend, the Giants defense has floundered against the pass since the season's opening snap. They finished 27th in passing yards allowed and wrapped up their season by failing to slow down either the dynamic Mark Brunell-Patrick Ramsey duo (216 yards, three scores) or the ever-steady Kerry Collins (331 yards, three scores). To be fair, most of their defensive struggles have come on the road, but their overall issues point to sunny skies for Smith and Delhomme.

Smith faired significantly better on the road during the regular campaign, piling up nine of his 12 touchdowns and 958 yards. He posted over 100 yards six times, scored in six different games, and did both in five of the eight road contests. Basically, anything short of 120 yards and one touchdown would be more disappointing than the cancellation of "Arrested Development."

Those stats are just the beginning for Delhomme. Smith found the end zone in nine regular season games, and Jake managed multiple touchdowns in six of those contests. We expect Delhomme to better that stat to seven-of-10, and the likely target for a second score is…Smith. Santana Moss (three) and Randy Moss (two) recently tripled and doubled their pleasure against the Giants, and we see no reason why Smith wouldn't follow suit – other than the fact that it's the playoffs, which makes it likely that Ricky Proehl will find a way to make a big play. Don't be surprised if Delhomme doesn't finish with a big yardage number, though. Not only will Jake be struggling to run away from Umenyiora and Strahan but he's also posted fewer than 200 yards in three straight road games, and with the running game going strong, the Panthers won't need to force the aerial attack.

When the Giants have the ball: The Panthers defense will confidently stride into this road game after ranking fifth in the NFL in points allowed, third in total yards allowed, fourth in rushing yards allowed, and ninth in passing yards allowed. However, the Black Cats will have their paws full with one of the NFL's best offenses. The balanced Giants scored 20 or more points in all but two contests this season and averaged 28.5 per game at home, where they went 7-1 (or 8-1 if you count the "away" clash with the Saints).

It all starts, of course, with Barber. We say "of course" because Barber just became the first player in NFL history to pile up 1,800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in the same campaign, and his 2,390 total yards is the second-highest single-season mark in NFL history. Barber does his best work at Giants Stadium, where he's rushed for 100 yards, scored, or done both in 16 straight tilts. The Panthers allowed only two rushing touchdowns and one 100-yard outing on the road this season, but Barber is a special player in the midst of a special season and won't be held short of triple digits or the end zone.

While Tiki's resume allows us to offer a clean outlook, Manning's stats would confuse even an Enron accountant. On one hand, Manning was arguably the top fantasy quarterback in the NFC due to his 3,762 yards and 24 touchdowns, and four of his six multi-score outings came at Giants Stadium. On the other, Eli completed an awful 49.6 percent of his passes at home, and over the second half of the season, he tossed 12 interceptions versus only 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Panthers finished fourth in the league with 23 interceptions, haven't ceded a multi-score passing game since week five, and have allowed only one passing day of better than 210 yards since week five.

Heck, maybe the outlook here is clean, too. Manning is going to struggle to crack a defense that features ballhawks Ken Lucas, Chris Gamble, and Ricky Manning Jr., and fantasy owners shouldn't count on anything more than 240 yards and one score. It won't help that Shockey will be limited by an ankle sprain that sidelined him in the regular season finale. No tight end has scored against the Panthers since week four, and the Cats have held their last 10 opponents to an average of 22 tight end receiving yards. Shockey won't reach the end zone and will do well just to reach his home average of 33 yards.

Burress earned plenty of headlines this season, but it might surprise people to find out that Amani Toomer matched his teammate touchdown-for-touchdown. Both receivers scored seven times overall and five times at home. Nothing in the Panthers thin dossier of wide receiver scores hints strongly towards either Plax or Amani, but since Eli tends to favor Burress, we'll point to the former Steeler as the likely touchdown target.

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