PANTHERS VS BEARS PREVIEW

Sunday, January 15, 2006, 4:30 p.m. ET
Carolina Panthers (12-5) at Chicago Bears (11-5)

The Bears and Panthers will meet for the second time this season, and for the second time, the Black Cats will be coming to the Windy City. The previous meeting went the way of the home team, as the Bears won 13-3 thanks to their elite defense. The game promises to be equally low-scoring this time around, and announcer Joe Buck might get confused and figure that he's sitting next to Tim McCarver rather than Troy Aikman.

Despite that generally poor outlook, though, there are still some players and statistical trends to pique the minds of fantasy football owners.

When the Panthers have the ball: Readers already likely know that the Bears defense led the league in fewest points allowed (12.6) and finished second in fewest yards allowed (281.8), but did you also know that the last six teams to visit Chicago (including the Panthers) left with fewer than 10 points? But our outlook isn't all doom-and-gloom for John Fox's club. For one, Steve Smith managed a career-high and team-record 14 receptions in the week 11 clash. Two, three of the last four teams to enter Soldier Field managed to rush for more than 100 yards against Brian Urlacher and his boys.

That second note is of utmost importance. Over the past eight games, the Panthers are 5-0 when DeShaun Foster runs for at least 74 yards and 0-3 when he falls short of that mark. The Panthers attempted only 16 rushes (for 55 yards) in their week 11 loss, but we expect them to feature the run more prominently this time around. The Bears have allowed a 75-yard rusher in five of their past six games, and Foster will manage to hit right around that mark, despite his continuing battle with a toe injury. The highly-ranked defense has also ceded seven rushing scores over the past six contests, but we have a harder time predicting an end zone visit for Foster.

Instead, any touchdowns will go to Smith. The Bears will likely cover him with half their defense, but such efforts haven't stopped Smith before. The dynamic receiver has scored 12 of his 15 total touchdowns on the road, and he's piled up 72 catches and 1,042 yards in nine contests away from home. Smith won't set any personal or franchise records this time, but 100 yards and a score are well within reason.

Usually a Smith touchdown means that Jake Delhomme will also post a fantasy-friendly line, but such is not the case here. Delhomme completed 22-of-38 passes for 235 yards, no scores, and two interceptions back in week 11. Most notably, though, he was sacked eight times. His excellent playoff resume suggests that he'll be sharper in this meeting, but given the strength of the defense and the lack of a secondary target (sorry Ricky Proehl), we don't foresee more than 200 yards and a lone score for Delhomme.

Lastly, fantasy owners might consider using John Kasay. The left-footed kicker missed one of his two attempts in the previous trip to Chicago, but the Panthers have offered him three field goal shots in each of the team's last four road games.

When the Bears have the ball: Last Sunday, the Panthers defense drew up a plan to stop their opposition's star running back and force a young quarterback to make mistakes. It worked to perfection, as the Panthers held Tiki Barber to his lowest yardage total of the season, picked off Eli Manning three times, and pitched a shutout. During the regular campaign, the Bears posted more rushing yards than passing yards, and their starting quarterback has less in-game experience than even Manning.

In other words, the Panthers will likely come out with a similar game plan to the one that stymied the Giants and the one that kept the Bears from putting together a drive longer than 44 yards when these squads met in week 11. The Bears still managed to win that contest, but 10 of their points came at the end of possessions that spanned eight and three yards.

The key to their success (other than their defense) will be Thomas Jones. The Bears ground game churned out 122 yards in that week 11 clash, and Jones' 87 yards ranked as the fourth-best single-back effort against the Panthers during the regular campaign. Overall, the Panthers allowed a league-low 72 rushing yards per road game and only two rushing scores away from home. Meanwhile, Jones averaged a gaudy 106 rushing yards at home and tallied six of his nine rushing scores in Chicago.

It's strength versus strength, and while Thomas' younger brother might have some hints for defying this defense, we don't foresee a monster outing for Jones. Count on him using his copious carries and fighting hard to finish with around 80 yards. As happened last time, Adrian Peterson might sneak in a few touches, but this is Jones' offense to carry. Jones has scored both times that Rex Grossman took the field this season, which gives us hope that he'll have a good chance to find the end zone this Sunday.

Speaking of Grossman, he'll be playing in just his third game this season and making the eighth start of his career. Kyle Orton was under center when these teams battled in week 11, and, interestingly, the rookie had made nine career starts previous to facing the Panthers. He finished 15-of-26 for 136 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the victory.

The Panthers finished fourth in the league with 23 interceptions, haven't ceded a multi-score passing game since week five, and have allowed only one passing day of better than 210 yards since week five. After seeing what the Panthers did to Manning last week (113 yards, three picks), we can't predict anything better for Grossman than what Orton posted in week 11. In turn, we're limited in our prognostications for Muhsin Muhammad, Justin Gage, Desmond Clark, and any other Bears' receiver. Muhammad scored against his former squad in the previous meeting and is the best bet for the touchdown, but that's the nicest thing we can say about him or his pass-catching teammates.

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