2006 Super Bowl Predictions

January 31st, 2006 8:00 AM ET

Apparently there's a big football game to be played later this week at Jerome Bettis' house. Maybe you've heard about it, or perhaps are even planning to gather with a few friends and, in between the Emerald Nuts druid and the GoDaddy.com girl's appearance, wolf down a couple pounds of guac while watching said tilt.

Yes, it's the Super Bowl, and even more so this year the league is going all out to do up the big game in style. This year's Super Bowl will be more XL than ever—and it has almost nothing to do with Bettis.

So, let's say you do commit to the four or five hours it's going to take to get through this game; you're going to want to pick a horse to back to make it more enjoyable. Whether you back it with a little cheering, some face paint, or possibly even a mythical dollar or two, you don't want to come to the table unarmed.

And for goodness sakes, you don't want to resort to picking the Steelers because they "just sound tougher" than the Seahawks, or Seattle because the coast rhododendron (Washington's state flower) is prettier than the mountain laurel (its Pennsylvanian counterpart).

We're here to help. Here's a brief glance at each of the combatants in Sunday's Super Bowl, along with a handful of legitimate reasons why that team—your team, once you pick a side of the fence to come down on—will emerge victorious.

1. They're favored. Despite being the sixth seed in the AFC and having to run the table for the final four games just to get invited to the postseason, the Steelers were installed as the early three-point favorites. That line climbed as high as four-and-a-half in some places but has settled in at four for the start of Hype Week. The folks who set these lines for a living know what they're doing; believe them.

2. Ben Roethlisberger. As a rookie, he led the Steelers to the AFC title game, but Pittsburgh's postseason run was more in spite of his quarterback play (five interceptions in two games) than because of it. This year is a different story, as he's posted a mind-blowing 124.8 quarterback rating and completed almost 70 percent of his passes while carrying the formerly run-first Steelers with 680 passing yards, seven touchdown tosses, and a touchdown run in three postseason games. Big Ben is on a big roll right now, with a dozen total touchdowns and just three picks in his last seven games. Hey, he's 27-4 lifetime, so you've got an 87 percent chance of being right.

3. Heath Miller. The underrated Seahawks defense has been solid all season, but without regular safety Ken Hamlin—who's been out since suffering a fractured skull after being assaulted outside a Seattle nightclub in mid-October—they can be had down the middle of the field. Sans Hamlin, Jeremy Shockey (127) and Ben Troupe (116) have had their way with the Seahawk secondary, and Miller is similarly equipped to have a big game as well. With the corners focused on Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El and the front seven occupied with Pittsburgh's running game, Miller over the middle might be Pittsburgh's path to victory.

4. Their defense. Few teams have a defense that's as versatile as Pittsburgh's. Their front trio of Kimo von Oelhoffen, Casey Hampton, and Aaron Smith is extremely tough to move, and safety Troy Polamalu comes up and hits like an extra linebacker. The Steelers aren't afraid to bring Polamalu on the blitz, either, and they'll mix and match his pass rushing with that of linebackers Joey Porter, James Farrior, Clark Haggans, and Larry Foote. The only similar defenses the Seahawks faced this year (discounting the Panthers, who were clearly not at full strength without Julius Peppers last week) were the Jaguars, Redskins, and Cowboys. They managed 44 points combined in those three games and went 1-2.

5. Antwaan Randle El. The former college quarterback is a multi-talented performer who will be used in a variety of ways. He's a stellar kick returner, and as Steve Smith demonstrated last week the Seahawks can be exploited in special teams. But offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt may want to show the Raiders—who are believed to have taken a shine to him regarding their head coaching vacancy—just what a mastermind he is by using Randle El on reverses or even throwing the ball. Pittsburgh is always good for a trick play or three, and more often than not Randle El is in the middle of said chicanery. After battering the Seahawks with their ground game or having Big Ben pick apart their secondary, a flea flicker or double pass is bound to catch Seattle's defense out of position.

1. They've won 15 games. The Seahawks have been one of the league's best-kept secrets this season, tucked away in the Great Northwest 800 miles from the next closest NFL city. A week-16 showdown with the Colts might have generated some publicity, but by the time the two top seeds met there was little left to play for. A week-17 loss in Green Bay ended an 11-game winning streak, so just about all that casual fans know of the Seahawks is that they've got Shaun Alexander. This just in: they're good.

2. Matt Hasselbeck. Not only is Hasselbeck overshadowed on his own team, he's a second (or third) banana at family gatherings as well. His sister-in-law, Elisabeth, parlayed her work on "Survivor" into a co-hosting gig on "The View," and his dad, Don, won a Super Bowl ring with the Raiders in 1983. Oh yeah, and his brother, Tim, is a backup quarterback for the Giants. But the former Brett Favre understudy had his best year as a pro, notching a 98.2 passer rating en route to 3,459 yards and 24 touchdowns against nine interceptions—pretty nice numbers when you consider Shaun Alexander was Seattle's primary option and he played most of the year without his top wideout, Darrell Jackson. Matt has been spot-on in the postseason, with four total touchdowns and zero picks; if he maintains that level of play in the face of Blitzburg's defensive pressure, he'll be able to compare jewelry with dear old Dad.

3. They can get deep. One place the Pittsburgh defense is vulnerable is deep, what with Polamalu crashing the line of scrimmage on a regular basis. The Seahawks have a talented receiving corps that includes Jackson, Bobby Engram, Joe Jurevicius, and tight end Jerramy Stevens, a group that combined for 21 touchdowns and collectively averaged more than 12 yards per catch. Each wideout had at least one play of 48 yards or more, and even Stevens recorded a 35-yarder this season. If Seattle chooses to spread the Steelers out, not only will they force blitzes to come from farther off the edge, they'll also likely get Polamalu in coverage—the weakest area of his game. Stevens could exploit the middle of the field behind Polamalu, or Hasselbeck could work deep to any of his wideouts. The threat of an MVP running back also holds the coverage for that extra split-second—which might be all D-Jax needs to get behind the secondary and make a big play.

4. Their defense. People weren't overly impressed when Seattle held the Redskins to just 10 points in the divisional round because Washington's offense wasn't exactly a juggernaut. And holding Carolina wasn't that tough because all they had to do was shut down Steve Smith, right? But eventually you run out of excuses for the other team and have to accept the fact that Seattle's defense is vastly underrated. They've surrendered 501 total yards in two playoff games, allowed two offensive touchdowns, squeezed teams to a 21 percent conversion rate on third downs, forced seven turnovers, and helped forge a nine-minute time-of-possession average. They don't have a catchy nickname like the Steel Curtain, but they can be every bit as disruptive. The Steelers aren't running the ball particularly well in the postseason, and Seattle has given up 95 rushing yards total in two games; that could take Pittsburgh out of their comfort zone and turn the league's top pass rush (50 sacks) loose.

5. Mike Holmgren. One coach in Sunday's game has a ring; the other has a reputation for coming up short in big games, thanks to a bunch of losses in AFC title games and a failed Super Bowl attempt. Give up? Yes, Seattle's coach already has hoisted the Lombardi Trophy as the Packers' head honcho in Super Bowl XXXI, something Bill Cowher's critics are convinced he'll never do. In the battle of the moustaches, history appears to be on the side of the walrus, and you know what happens to those who don't learn from history.

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