2006 Fantasy Wide Receiver Rankings

January 16, 2006 4:00 PM ET

For Exhibit A as to why fantasy footballers eschew using early picks on wide receivers, look no further than the volatile class of 2005.

Let's say you went receiver-heavy and landed Terrell Owens and Randy Moss as your starters. Let's go further and say that your league completely ignored the position and you backed that duo up with Marvin Harrison and Steve Smith.

So, how'd you do in your week 16 fantasy bowl with zero touchdowns, two DNPs, and 90 total yards?

As difficult as it is to find reliable fantasy production from your wideouts, it's equally challenging to find emotional stability at a position where the top five heading into next season could very easily include a guy who was suspended from his team in midseason for being a jackass; a moody talent who admittedly plays when he wants to play (and apparently didn't want to last season); and a diminutive powder keg who once smashed in a teammate's face during a film session and more recently was ejected from a key game for putting hands on an official.

The bastion for stability at this position is a multiple-Pro Bowler who was accused of roughing up a couple of teenage autograph seekers the last time he was in Hawaii.

Of course, these are also the guys who will show up some Sunday and drop 200 yards and three touchdowns at your feet, so it's a love-hate relationship to say the least.

Here's a glance back at the ups and downs of the 2005 season, as well as a peek at what might be in store for 2006:

What Went Right in 2005
When Steve Smith managed to keep his temper in check, he was flat-out awesome. Smith never threw up back-to-back clunkers—a rarity at this position—en route to leading the league in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns. Not too shabby for a guy who snapped his leg and missed the entire previous season.

After a sluggish start, Marvin Harrison was about as rock-solid as you've come to expect. Had you bailed on Marvelous following week five—after all, he'd only posted one 100-yard game to that point and been shut out three times already—you missed his glorious run of nine touchdowns and four 100-yard efforts in eight games. Then, unfortunately, he busted his hand racking up 135 yards against the Chargers and took the rest of the year off.

The Cardinals pass-first (and second, and third) approach helped answer questions about which Arizona wideout, Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin, belongs in the top 10. After matching triple-digit catch, 1,000-yard campaigns, it's clearly both.

Lost amidst the drama and the Fame-like musicals that accompanied many wide receiver touchdowns was the quiet consistency of Torry Holt. A midseason injury cost him a couple games, but he returned to turn in a steady steam of performances despite the Rams' quarterbacking carousel. Despite the missed games he finished one catch behind co-leaders Smith and Fitzgerald and sixth in the league in yardage.

Several other pass-catchers produced seasons of note, including Chad Johnson, who was not only productive but also kept us glued to the tube for his next end zone opera; Hines Ward, who fell shy of 1,000 yards but still caught 11 touchdown passes on a predominantly running team; Chris Chambers, who provided you didn't need a legitimate NFL quarterback to put up solid fantasy numbers; and Santana Moss, who rode the resurgence of Mark Brunell to a fast start and finished with a flourish, winning many fantasy bowls with his 160-yard, three-touchdown outburst.

What Went Somewhat Right in 2005
Those who snagged Joey Galloway with a late pick—or, more likely, made him an early pickup—got a pretty nice run from the old fella as he posted career highs in catches and yardage and produced his best touchdown season since 1998. Problem was, he lost his map to the end zone at the wrong time, laying goose eggs in weeks 14, 15, and 16—and his double-dip against the Saints in week 17 probably came too late to help his fantasy owners.

Another old folk, Keenan McCardell, looked like he'd be the outside complement to Antonio Gates in San Diego with four touchdowns in the first three games. However, the rest of the year McCardell haphazardly mixed clunkers with productivity, to the point you were probably benching him when he scored and starting him when he tanked.

No one expected Joe Jurevicius to score 10 touchdowns, but that's exactly what he did stepping into the lineup void created by the injury to Darrell Jackson. Jurevicius posted just two yardage games of note, however, and interspersed goose eggs liberally throughout his slate of games.

When Roy Williams managed to make it to the field, he was generally effective—and given that he was catching balls thrown by Joey Harrington and/or Jeff Garcia all season, that's not easy to do. Alas, a month of DNPs and just one game with more than five catches had us doubting Roy all season—and probably missing out on his four scores in the final six weeks of the season.

What Went Wrong in 2005
Much like securing a live interview with Tom Cruise, drafting Terrell Owens this season was a high-risk, high-reward proposition. When he did play, Owens played extremely well; he scored six times and topped the century mark four times in the seven games he stuck around. Then, of course, came the situps on the front lawn and the non-apology apology and the suspension and the "next question" press conference, and now we're wondering who'll take a chance on the obviously talented but clearly unstable wide receiver.

It was a match made in heaven: the Raiders' love of the long ball and the addition of Randy Moss to the Silver and Black attack. Moss posted 257 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games, hit the century mark again in week four, and then got banged up the following week against the Chargers. And then… well, given his past statements one would have to question if he wanted to play, as he scored a disappointing (for him) four touchdowns and topped 75 receiving yards just once prior to showing up for the season finale. But even then, with a couple touchdowns already in his pocket, Moss was an observer on a key goal-line series that has everyone wondering if he's jumped the shark.

There's no more sickening feeling during NFL Kickoff Weekend than to have one of your top draft picks go down with a season-ending injury—as those who spent a high pick on Javon Walker know all too well. Walker stuck around for four catches before blowing out his knee, which certainly didn't help quell the free-fall of Brett Favre's fantasy value, either. And while initially Walker's injury opened the door for Donald Driver to have a nice run, watching Driver be kept out of the end zone for nine of the season's final 10 games was almost as painful as seeing Walker carted off the field.

Those who were banking on another stellar campaign from Joe Horn were probably carted off by the end of the season as well, by those nice men in the white coats from the state institution. Coming off a career year of 1,399 yards and 11 touchdowns, Horn lit up the Giants for 143 yards and a touchdown in week two… and then didn't cross the century mark or even sniff the end zone the rest of the year. In all, a whopping 76 wide receivers scored more touchdowns than Horn; yes, it was that bad.

In what turned out to be a great year to completely ignore wide receivers, several other big names underachieved notably, including Andre Johnson, who was hamstrung by a calf injury and a line that refused to give his quarterback time to go deep (though that's no excuse for two fantasy-worthy games over the course of the entire season); Nate Burleson, who was plagued by injuries all season long and came nowhere near filling Moss's void in the Minnesota passing game; Drew Bennett, who—stop us if this sounds familiar—battled injuries all year and never took to his new role as a No. 1 receiver; Laveranues Coles, who was mostly killed by a new low in quarterback play that had Jets fans clamoring for the glory days of Quincy Carter; and Michael Clayton, who went from Rookie of the Year finalist to waiver-wire fodder after putting up numbers that were an astonishing 821 yards and seven touchdowns lower than his rookie campaign.

Looking Ahead to 2006
Some large questions remain to be answered this offseason, some of them directly involving receivers (such as the 2006 venues for Owens, Reggie Wayne, and Antonio Bryant, among others) and some involving the guys who get them the ball (as in, will Carson Palmer and/or Daunte Culpepper be ready for training camp). Without making too many rash assumptions, here's one editor's ranking of the top 25 wide receivers heading into the 2006 fantasy season.

1. Steve Smith, Panthers: Until a defense demonstrates Smith can be stopped, he's got to be number one.
2. Marvin Harrison, Colts: He'll still have Peyton Manning, he may not have Reggie Wayne, and Indy will certainly be motivated. This is a shout-out to consistency over wildly fluctuating production.
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: Seems to be the favored target in the red zone—and a frequent target elsewhere—but questions abound around him.
4. Torry Holt, Rams: Another attempt to balance the need for consistency with the home run threats at this position. Holt's a solid combo of both.
5. Terrell Owens, ??: He won't return to Philly, but somewhere there's a coach on the brink of a Super Bowl run who is convinced he can be the one to rein in TO's tantrums.
6. Chad Johnson, Bengals: Much of Chad's value—as well as that of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry—hinges on Carson Palmer's surgically-repaired left knee.
7. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals: Kobe to Fitz's Shaq, Mantle to his Maris… but the same concerns linger as well.
8. Randy Moss, Raiders: Simply can't slide down the list any further. You know you'll take a chance on him if he's there.
9. Darrell Jackson, Seahawks: Watching the playoffs reminds you how good DJax was on his way to becoming prior to the injury. If Shaun Alexander leaves Seattle, Jackson becomes their top offensive weapon.
10. Hines Ward, Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger is a pretty good quarterback, and if Jerome Bettis hangs it up after this year Ward's red zone looks will go up.
11. Chris Chambers, Dolphins: Every preseason we lament, "If only he had a quarterback," and then he goes out and still puts up great numbers. If he only had a quarterback...
12. Reggie Wayne, Colts/UFA: Does he stick in Indy and catch balls from Peyton, live in Marv's shadow and maybe make another playoff run? Or does he go for the big coin and a shot at top billing elsewhere?
13. Roy Williams, Lions: A healthy Legend with a legit quarterback might just blow the lid off of Ford Field.
14. Andre Johnson, Texans: You have to think offensive guru Gary Kubiak will find a way to get Johnson more heavily involved.
15. Javon Walker, Packers: He's already made one smart move, dropping Drew Rosenhaus as his agent. He'll either be Brett Favre's swan song or Aaron Rogers' safety blanket.
16. Santana Moss, Redskins: About the only downfield option on the roster. When will Jason Campbell be ready?
17. Nate Burleson, Vikings: Ideal skill set for Brad Childress' WCO; let's see what he can do if he stays healthy.
18. Deion Branch, Patriots: One of these years, Tom Brady is going to lock in on Deion and stay there all season long.
19. Donte Stallworth, Saints: Matt Leinart's going to need a downfield target, and we've lost all confidence in Joe Horn.
20. Plaxico Burress, Giants: Eli loved him the first half of the season, then left him in the second half. One worked out better than the other for the Giants, so we're guessing they kiss and make up.
21. Laveranues Coles, Jets: Was almost serviceable with Brooks Freaking Bollinger under center, so any warm body should be an improvement.
22. Mark Clayton, Ravens: Brian Billick made a concerted effort to get him the ball the latter part of the season, when Baltimore's offense was actually working. Coincidence?
23. Drew Bennett, Titans: Still the top pass-catching option on a team that still looks like it will be giving up plenty of points next season.
24. Rod Smith, Broncos: Ashley Lelie has yet to even inkle that he might be ready to take over Rod's role as Denver's go-to guy.
25. Lee Evans, Bills: You know how well Evans played with J.P. Losman at quarterback. You don't really think a new coach is going to start Kelly Holcomb, do you?

Bust: Joey Galloway, Buccaneers: Rarely does a career year come so late in a receiver's career. And it's even more rare that said numbers get duplicated.

Sleeper (1): Antonio Bryant, Browns/UFA: Should be brought back to be Charlie Frye's favorite target, at least until 2007 when Braylon Edwards is back at full speed. Or, he could return to Pennsylvania and be the next TO in Philly. He's certainly got the attitude...

Sleeper (2): Koren Robinson, Vikings/UFA: Got his feet (but, hopefully, not his whistle) wet by playing primarily on special teams for the Vikings—and earned a trip to Hawaii for his efforts. He clearly still has speed, and if he stays on the straight and narrow he could be the receiver everyone thought he'd be a few years back in Seattle.

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