NFL
Divisional Playoff Weekend Betting Previews
January 10, 2006 5:00 AM
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Last season, Peyton Manning,
Daunte Culpepper, and the rest of the NFL's
quarterback club basked in the fantasy football
spotlight. This year, the running backs recaptured
their mantle as the fantasy sport's most dominant
players.
For the first time in NFL history,
three different running backs scored 20 or more
touchdowns, and for the third time this millennium,
a player set the single-season record for most
score in a season. Another nine players found
the end zone at least 10 times.
But it wasn't all bubble gum
and rainbows. Just as Alcoa and Phelps Dodge
sent the Dow reeling after a triumphant day,
the fantasy football world included its fair
share of Debbie Downers – those running
backs who made their fantasy owners more spitting
mad than Sean Taylor.
We recount the strong efforts,
the decent outings, and the poor showings of
the 2005 season and take a look forward to 2006:
What Went Right in 2005
We suppose Shaun Alexander is a good place to
start. The NFL (and fantasy football) MVP carried
the pigskin a league-high 370 times for a league-high
1,880 yards and notched an NFL-record 28 touchdowns.
Alexander broke the 100-yard mark 11 times and
scored in nine straight contests to wrap up
the regular season. Yeah, he was okay.
Tiki Barber managed a mere 11
touchdowns, but the long-time Giant complemented
that work with an astonishing yardage season.
His 2,390 total yards rank second all-time to
only Marshall Faulk (1999), and Barber is the
first player in NFL history to combine 1,800
rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in the
same campaign. Also, Barber became just the
third running back (O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell)
to manage three 200-yard rushing efforts in
a single season.
You know you are an outstanding
talent when people express disappointment in
you after a 23-touchdown season, and such is
the case for LaDainian Tomlinson. The electric
Bolt ran his record-tying scoring streak to
18 games before failing to find the end zone
in week seven, and he left a lot of people unhappy
when he managed only one touchdown over the
final five games. However, the overall picture
of 1,832 total yards and 23 scores (18 rush,
two receive, three pass) is still sexier than
Jessica Alba in a thong.
Our unofficial year-end poll
suggested that 100 percent of teams who had
Larry Johnson won their fantasy football league.
Johnson opened the season as the backup to Priest
Holmes, but he took over the starting gig when
it was discovered that Holmes had a bruise on
his spinal canal. The understudy proceeded to
rush for 1,351 yards, pile up 17 touchdowns,
and earn a lot of "he's the number one
pick in 2006" votes over his nine starts.
After being overshadowed by teammates
in 2004, Edgerrin James quietly carried more
of load this season. He rushed for 88 or more
yards (and managed more than 100 total yards)
in each of the first 13 games, and he strung
together an eight-game scoring streak from weeks
three-11. Despite a late-season rest, James
finished with 1,843 total yards and 14 touchdowns,
posting arguably his best overall season since
2000.
To cut a long section short,
we also extend applause to Rudi Johnson (1,458
yards, 12 touchdowns), Clinton Portis (1,516
yards, 11 touchdowns), Thomas Jones (1,335 yards,
nine touchdowns), and Mike Anderson (1,014 yards,
13 touchdowns) for generally meeting or exceeding
expectations for the season.
What Went Somewhat Right
in 2005
LaMont Jordan made the transition from Jets'
caddy to Raiders' starter, and he received an
A for his work at home but an F for his efforts
on the road. All nine of Jordan's rushing touchdowns
and all three of his 100-yard efforts came in
Oakland. Meanwhile, he managed only two receiving
scores, 405 rushing yards, and 3.1 yards-per-carry
in seven contests outside of McAfee Coliseum.
And here we figured that "raiding"
meant doing damage on another person's territory.
For the second straight season,
Corey Dillon found the end zone 13 times. That's
the good news. On the flip side, Dillon did
not record a carry in five separate games, and
on multiple occasions, head coach Bill Belichick
misled fantasy owners to believe that Corey
would play. He rushed for over 80 yards only
twice. See also: Davis, Stephen.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Carnell Williams set an NFL record by rushing
for 434 yards in his opening three NFL games,
but the wheels came off after that. Injuries
limited Cadillac over the subsequent six contests,
but he finished up strong and piled up 662 yards
over the final seven games.
On the one hand, Warrick Dunn
set new career-highs with 280 carries, 1,416
rushing yards, and 1,636 total yards. On the
other, he managed only four touchdowns (worst
mark since 1999) and 220 receiving yards (career-low).
Dunn's overall stats likely exceeded his fantasy
draft position, but he earns only a passing
grade. See also: Parker, Willie.
What Went Wrong in 2005
Through four games, Deuce McAllister was on
pace for over 1,200 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
Unfortunately, the Saints' workhorse then tore
his right ACL in week five, and we were subjected
to a bland jambalaya of Antowain Smith and Aaron
Stecker.
The theory was that Jamal Lewis
would spend his months in between the halfway
house and a fat 2006 contract beating up on
would-be tacklers and making frequent visits
to the end zone. In reality, Lewis gave a halfway
effort and looked like a man who didn't care
that free agency was looming. He set career-lows
with 906 rushing yards and four total touchdowns.
Despite his claims to the contrary,
Willis McGahee is not the best running back
in the NFL, and we have the stats to prove it.
McGahee scored more touchdowns in the last four
weeks of 2004 (six) than he did in all of 2005
(five). His 1,247 rushing yards were decent,
but given our high expectations and a lack of
a run longer than 23 yards, we can't help but
feel grossly disappointed.
Like McGahee, Domanick Davis
finished strong in 2004 and moved up the 2005
fantasy rankings. Davis carried a nine-game
scoring streak into this season, but that chain
was quickly cut down in week one. Double-D proceeded
to find the end zone only six times, and thanks
to a knee injury, he fell short of 1,000 yards
for the first time in his career.
We're four running backs into
this section and haven't even made it out of
the first round of most 2005 drafts. As such,
let's cut the pain short and simply reel off
the rest of the top duds. Veterans Curtis Martin
and Ahman Green were terrible prior to injuries,
sophomores Kevin Jones and Julius Jones slumped,
and rookies Cedric Benson and J.J. Arrington
failed to take their talents to the next level.
Looking Ahead to 2006
The running back list will fluctuate more than
any other position over the next eight months.
Coaching changes, the draft, injuries, free
agency, open competitions, committee whispers,
offensive line changes, and other factors will
undoubtedly disrupt the following order. That
being said, here's a quick look at this editor's
2006 running back rankings without the rookies
(Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, Laurence Maroney,
etc.) and with a feeling that it's currently
best to steer clear of injuries and committees
(Jets, Packers, Bears, Titans, etc.).
1. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks/FA:
The MVP has to stay in Seattle, right? Beware
the loss of guard Steve Hutchinson.
2. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers: His four-year
averages are 2,038 total yards and 19 total
touchdowns.
3. Larry Johnson, Chiefs: Questions about the
coaching staff, offensive line, and Priest Holmes'
status.
4. Edgerrin James, Colts/FA: He's here until
we know where he's playing next year.
5. Tiki Barber, Giants: Age is a concern, but
three of the past four seasons have been great.
6. Rudi Johnson, Bengals: His upside is limited
by miniscule receiving stats.
7. Clinton Portis, Redskins: Gibbs and Portis
got on the same page this season.
8. Carnell Williams, Buccaneers: Mike Alstott's
retirement would help his scoring.
9. Corey Dillon, Patriots: The touchdowns are
great, but he's broken down in two of the last
three seasons.
10. LaMont Jordan, Raiders: New coach could
affect his ranking but don't discount his great
receiving stats.
11. Willis McGahee, Bills: If he can manage
1,247 yards in an awful season, his ceiling
remains pretty high.
12. Steven Jackson, Rams: We need to see the
new coach and O-line improvements before he
moves up.
13. Willie Parker, Steelers: If Jerome Bettis
retires, Fast Willie will see more goal line
action.
14. Deuce McAllister, Saints: ACL victims often
need two full seasons to be back to 100 percent.
15. Brian Westbrook, Eagles: Philly RBs managed
2,465 total yards and 27 touchdowns the season
before T.O. showed up.
16. Mike Anderson, Broncos: He's still Shanahan's
starter until we hear differently.
17. Julius Jones, Cowboys: Parcells needs to
shore up the O-line (again).
18. Domanick Davis, Texans: Double-D is hanging
in limbo land until Bush Day.
19. Jamal Lewis, Ravens/FA: The current bet
is that the Ravens retain Lewis over Chester
Taylor.
20. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: Higher if Ricky
goes; maybe lower if Ricky stays.
21. Tatum Bell, Broncos: Early pick to be the
2006 version of L.J. (2005) or McGahee (2004).
22. Reuben Droughns, Browns: Potential holdout
is a problem but O-line projects to improve.
23. Kevin Jones, Lions: Tempted to not rank
him, but it has to get better, right?
24. Warrick Dunn, Falcons: If he was younger
and still caught passes, he'd be higher.
25. Priest Holmes, Chiefs: Will he retire? If
not, will he be back with the Chiefs? If so,
what role?
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Bust: Thomas
Jones, Bears: We spent nearly all of the 2005
offseason and regular season predicting the
demise of Jones and the rise of Cedric Benson.
Why stop now?
Sleeper (1):
Greg Jones, Jaguars: Jack Del Rio's club finished
in the top-10 in both rushing yards and rushing
touchdowns, and Jones looks ready to take on
more of the load.
Sleeper (2):
DeShaun Foster, Panthers/FA: It may not be quite
as stringent as Samuel Alito's process, but
the Panthers are putting Foster through a lengthy
tryout as the workhorse back. If he passes and
earns a contract, there's decent fantasy potential.
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