NFL
Divisional Playoff Weekend Betting Previews
January 7, 2006 2:00
PM ET
While the NFL rolls into the
postseason, the fantasy football season is over.
Sure, many people participate in fantasy playoff
leagues, but the core of the campaign is complete.
Thus, somewhat like the 20 teams who are not
currently prepping for a Super Bowl run, it's
time for us to assess personnel.
Our position-by-position look
at the fantasy football world begins at the
quarterback position. Following a record-breaking
2004, NFL hurlers reverted back to their 2003
form, and we witnessed only two 4,000-yard efforts
and one 30-touchdown campaign this season. Overall,
75 different quarterbacks attempted at least
one pass, and most of those players were significantly
less successful in their endeavors than running
back LaDainian Tomlinson, who threw for three
touchdowns.
Let's begin on a positive note,
though.
What Went Right in 2005
Due to the extent of his improvement, we're
tempted to begin and end this section with Carson
Palmer. He not only led the NFL with 32 touchdown
passes, but he was the only quarterback to finish
with more than 28. Palmer coupled his copious
scores with 3,836 yards, a league-leading 67.8
completion percentage, and only 12 interceptions.
He posted only three 300-yard games, but we'll
forgive him for being merely ordinary in that
category.
Peyton Manning could only go
backwards after his record-setting, cut-that-meat,
49-touchdown season, and he caused widespread
panic when he tossed only two scores through
three games. However, the Manning machine then
churned out nine multiple-touchdown efforts
over his next 10 contests and finished the season
with 28 scores despite basically sitting out
two contests. Manning's 3,747 yards were nearly
a career-low, but, once again, we need to remember
that he likely would have finished with over
4,000 had the Colts not wrapped up the top playoff
seed so early.
Some might argue that Eli Manning
made as big of a leap as Palmer, and the second-year
stud went from last-round pick to every-week
starter in many fantasy leagues. He finished
fifth in the NFL with 3,762 passing yards and
tied for fourth with 24 touchdowns. Unfortunately,
Manning was also erratic (52.8 completion percentage)
and didn't finish strong (four touchdowns over
the last five games). Overall, though, he was
a major positive in the fantasy football community.
Tom Brady improved a bit in 2005,
although he was basically his consistent self.
The advancement came in passing yards, where
the SI Sportsman of the Year reached the 4,000-yard
mark for the first time in his career and led
the league with 4,110. Brady's 26 touchdowns
(versus 14 interceptions) were almost dead-on
with the numbers he posted in 2002, 2003 and
2004. Yawn.
Following a breakout 2004 campaign,
Drew Brees felt like a bust candidate entering
2005, but he silenced his real and fantasy critics
by piling up a career-high 3,576 yards and managing
a solid 24 touchdowns. As in 2004, Brees excelled
at home (16 scores) and struggled on the road
(eight scores), but fantasy owners aware of
that pattern were able to adjust accordingly.
Now, about that shoulder injury…
What Went Somewhat Right
in 2005
The base touchdown and yardage stats for Drew
Bledsoe were basically the same as Brees' digits,
but we're placing him in this area because the
Cowboys' quarterback was (1) a more difficult
player to predict and (2) piled up 17 interceptions
and 17 fumbles. We do applaud Bledsoe for a
solid comeback season (3,639 yards, 23 touchdowns),
but 10 scores over the final eight games left
something to be desired.
Speaking of NFC East veterans,
Mark Brunell emerged from his backup spot to
produce a career-high 23 touchdowns. Of course,
12 of those scores came during a five-game span
from weeks two through seven and Mark hasn't
thrown for more than 200 yards in a game since
week 10, but Brunell still earned a solid C-plus.
For the third straight season,
Matt Hasselbeck used a late surge to turn around
a disappointing campaign. He tossed 12 touchdowns
over a five-game stretch from weeks 12-to-16
and help fantasy teams advance in the playoffs.
Fellow highly-ranked fantasy options Trent Green
(4,014 yards, 17 scores) and Jake Delhomme (3,421
yards, 24 scores) also paved roller coaster
paths and received an uneven grade.
Injuries kept youngsters Ben
Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich from potentially
posting touchdown and yardage totals that may
have rivaled the likes of Delhomme, Hasselbeck,
and Mini-Manning. At times, both the Steeler
and the Jag were effective fantasy passers,
and we continue to look forward to their bright
futures.
Finally, we also need to set
aside a category for the Cardinals and Rams.
These two teams made a strong case for fantasy
leagues to use the Team Quarterback system,
as they finished first and second in the NFL
in passing yards. Combined, the two clubs featured
five different quarterbacks that were useful
to fantasy owners. Here's to hoping those NFC
West clubs are able to steady their positions
in 2006.
What Went Wrong in 2005
Many fantasy owners used a first-round pick
on Daunte Culpepper only to watch him mostly
struggle for six-plus games before suffering
a major knee injury. He threw more interceptions
this season (12) than he did in either 2004
(11) or 2003 (11), and there's no need to dwell
on a story that fantasy owners don't want to
relive, as it can only lead to heartache and
a boat joke.
Following an opening loss to
the Falcons, Donovan McNabb went crazy against
the 49ers, Raiders and Chiefs, piling up 10
touchdowns and 1,076 yards. Unfortunately, a
sports hernia injury and other nagging ailments
(and a nagging teammate) eventually caught up
to McNabb, and he ultimately cut his season
short after aggravating his hernia and groin
areas.
Fantasy pundits across the globe
picked Kerry Collins as a breakout fantasy candidate
in 2005, but the veteran once again reminded
the NFL why he's merely an average quarterback.
Collins managed 3,759 yards and 20 scores, but
he was inconsistent and earned a benching in
week 14.
If you had told us back in August
that Brett Favre would attempt a career-high
607 passes, we probably would have predicted
4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns. And we would
have been way, way off. Instead, Ol' #4 tossed
a career-worst 29 interceptions, managed a mere
20 scores, and unofficially caused Chris Berman
to cry seven times.
A bunch of mid-tier veterans
and a pair of hopeful youngsters also fell way
short of expectations. Rather than subject readers
to a summary of their painful stats, we'll simply
call out Chad Pennington, Jake Plummer, Aaron
Brooks, Brian Griese, David Carr, and Joey Harrington
and call it a day.
Looking Ahead to 2006
We have another eight months until fantasy drafts
and auctions are held next August and September,
and the following list is going to undergo some
serious changes due to little things like coaching
changes, surgeries, free agency, and the NFL
draft. That being stated (and hopefully understood),
here's this editor's current 2006 rankings.
1. Peyton Manning, Colts: I'll
stick with the guy who's done it eight straight
years.
2. Eli Manning, Giants: All his weapons will
be back, and his completion percentage can only
go up.
3. Tom Brady, Patriots: Sure, I'll chisel in
3,800 and 26.
4. Donovan McNabb, Eagles: He'll be healthy,
but the Eagles have a lot of questions around
him.
5. Jake Delhomme, Panthers: This assumes that
they'll find someone to complement Steve Smith.
6. Brett Favre, Packers: Assuming he doesn't
retire, of course. Javon Walker makes a big
difference.
7. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks: A healthy Darrell
Jackson (and no Shaun Alexander?) will benefit
Hass.
8. Drew Brees, Chargers: He'd be higher if not
for the shoulder surgery.
9. Marc Bulger, Rams: The Rams will be working
without a Martz-influenced offense.
10. Trent Green, Chiefs: The loss of Dick Vermeil
looms could mean no more 4,000-yard seasons.
11. Michael Vick, Falcons: Due to the rushing
stats, Vick always finishes with a lot of fantasy
points.
12. Byron Leftwich, Jaguars: Jimmy Smith keeps
going and the three young receivers look good.
13. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: With the Bus
parked, Big Ben may take on more of the load.
14. Kerry Collins, Raiders: Randy Moss and Jerry
Porter mean he's still a viable backup option.
15. Carson Palmer, Bengals: Knee injury caused
me to update this article and drop him way down
here.
16. Daunte Culpepper, Vikings: New coaches,
new offense, bum knee. Very tough to rank right
now.
17. Steve McNair/Billy Volek, Titans: The receiving
corps is young and talented.
18. Jake Plummer, Broncos: Something in between
2004 and 2005 is reasonable.
19. Chris Simms, Bucs: He should take statistical
steps forward after getting in most of a year.
20. Drew Bledsoe, Cowboys: Parcells' return
helps, now the 'Boys need an O-line.
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Bust: Mark Brunell,
Redskins: Along with our usual reservations
about trusting Brutal, Jason Campbell is waiting
for his chance.
Sleeper (1):
Cardinals QB: As we saw in 2005, anyone throwing
to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin has a
chance to post huge numbers.
Sleeper (2): Kyle
Boller, Ravens: A decent finish gives us some
hope, as does the trio of Todd Heap, Derrick
Mason, and Mark Clayton.
Well, that's one down and four
more to go. Keep checking back in the coming
weeks as we assess the running backs, wide receivers,
tight ends, and kickers.
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