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NFL
Power Rating Totals 2006
Just about everyone is familiar with team “Power
Ratings”
Allow me to introduce you to my NFL “Power
Rating Totals”. I’ve designed a set
of home/away numbers for each NFL team. I’m
able to combine and adjust them based on performance
each week throughout the season, so I may find
value in playing totals.
These numbers are based on a calculation I designed,
going back a certain number of years for each
club. Taking coaches, and players into consideration.
And I give a “weighted percentage”
grade for total scores both home and away. The
process is repeated with a different “weighted
percentage” over a certain number of times.
Once finished, the “PRT’s” are
ready for the season.
Keep in mind that these are hard numbers. We
must take injuries, and weather into consideration
ourselves.
For example: If a starting quarterback is out
for a game. You must decide how many points is
he actually worth?
Week 1 for 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is out
as the Steelers host Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch
takes his place.
The “Power Rating Total” for this
match-up is 41 (we can expect a total of 41 point
to be scored).
The game opened at 37 before Big Ben had emergency
surgery. Now at most places the total is 34.5.
Not a dramatic drop-off is it?
We now have a 6.5 point difference in the “PRTs’”
and the actual total. Do you still take a look
at playing the over?
Here’s Week
Ones NFL “Power Rating Totals”
Miami/Pittsburgh 41
Denver/St. Louis 44
N.Y .Jets/Tennessee 40.5
Buffalo/New England 41.5
Baltimore/Tampa Bay 36.5
Cincinnati/Kansas City 49
Seattle/Detroit 44
Atlanta/Carolina 41
Philadelphia/Houston 43.5
New Orleans/Cleveland 41
Dallas/Jacksonville 38
Chicago/Green Bay 39.5
San Francisco/Arizona 40
Indianapolis/N.Y. Giants 45.5
Minnesota/Washington 43.5
San Diego/Oakland 43
We’re looking for a minimum difference
of at least 3 points between the “PRT’s”
and the betting total to consider a play.
Thank you and Good Luck, Jamie Tursini
Jamie Tursini is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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