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NFL Predictions - Review Sport Book - Sportsbook - SuperBowl Wagering - NFL Bet



Tuesday January 25th, 2005 Page updated at 11:26pm

NFL SuperBowl Wagering

By: Q. Smyth
Senior Editor For WagerOnFootball.com

 

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February 6th on FOX

 

Super Bowl XXXIX - New England (16-2) vs. Philadelphia (15-3)

 

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A place in NFL history will be among the sumptuous rewards for either the New England Patriots or Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, as the two prominent members of the NFL elite meet in Super Bowl XXXIX at Jacksonville's Alltell Stadium.

The Patriots, champions of the AFC, will be vying for their third Super Bowl title in four years, a feat that has previously been achieved by only the 1992-95 Dallas Cowboys. New England, which is a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs under head coach Bill Belichick, was a 32-29 winner over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII, and previously earned a 20-17 victory against St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI.

The Patriots are attempting to become the first team since the 1997-98 Denver Broncos to claim back-to-back titles, and with a win would become the seventh franchise to have three Super Bowl victories to its credit.

SuperBowl XXXIX

The Pats' postseason road included decisive victories over Indianapolis (20-3) in an AFC Divisional Playoff and Pittsburgh (41-27) in the AFC Championship.

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The Eagles, meanwhile, have finally found a spot on the Super Bowl stage after sustaining three consecutive conference championship game heartbreaks from 2001 to 2003. Philadelphia's 27-10 triumph over Atlanta in the 2004 NFC title game sent the franchise to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1980 season, with the 24-year hiatus ranking as the second-longest gap in appearances in league annals. Andy Reid's squad will be contending for what would be the franchise's first-ever Lombardi Trophy, as well as the first major sports championship for the City of Philadelphia since the 76ers won the 1983 NBA title. The Eagles won three NFL titles in the pre-Super Bowl era, earning the crown in 1948, 1949 and 1960.

In addition to the aforementioned win over the Falcons, Philly's 2004 postseason ledger includes a 27-14 victory over Minnesota in an NFC Divisional Playoff.

 

SERIES HISTORY

The Eagles hold a 6-3 advantage in their all-time regular season series with the Patriots, but were 31-10 losers when the teams last met, on September 14, 2003, at Lincoln Financial Field. New England quarterback Tom Brady completed 30 of 44 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns in that game, while his counterpart, Donovan McNabb, completed just 18 of 46, threw a pair of interceptions, and was sacked seven times.

Prior to the 2003 loss, Philadelphia had won five straight over New England between 1981 and 1999, with four of those victories coming at home. The Patriots' most recent home victory in the series occurred during the 1978 campaign.

Though the Eagles and Pats did not meet during the 2004 regular season, they did match up in a preseason contest at Gillette Stadium on August 13. New England took that contest, 24-6, as both teams' starters played sparingly.

Reid is 1-1 all-time against New England, with the win coming against the Bill Parcells-coached Patriots in 1999. Belichick is 1-0 against both the Eagles and Reid as a head coach.

The franchises will be squaring off in the postseason for the first time.

 

PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. EAGLES DEFENSE

Engineering the Patriot offense is two-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady (3,692 passing yards, 28 TD, 14 INT, 60.8 completion percentage), who brings a career postseason record of 8-0 into Sunday's game. Brady completed 32 of 48 passes for 354 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in last year's Super Bowl win over Carolina. The Michigan product has yet to throw an interception in the 2004 playoffs.

New England traded a second-round draft pick to Cincinnati for running back Corey Dillon (1,635 rushing yards, 12 TD) this past offseason, and apparently, the move has paid off. At the age of 30, Dillon put up career numbers in 2004, setting a Patriots rushing record despite missing a game (October 31 at Pittsburgh) due to a thigh injury. Dillon also gutted Indianapolis for a 23- carry, 144-yard performance in the AFC Divisional Round. Serving as a backup is Kevin Faulk (255 rushing yards, 26 receptions, 2 TD), who has 76 rushing yards on 14 carries in two 2004 playoff games. Fullback Patrick Pass (141 rushing yards, 28 receptions) has been limited in recent weeks by a foot injury, but is expected to play in the Super Bowl.

Brady throws most often to his trio of wideouts - David Givens (56 receptions, 3 TD), David Patten (44 receptions, 7 TD) and Deion Branch (35 receptions, 4 TD). Givens, who led New England in catches and receiving yards during the regular season, has scored TDs in each of the Pats' first two playoff games. Patten, who has just two receptions in the playoffs thus far, caught Brady's only touchdown pass in Super Bowl XXXVI. Branch missed seven games earlier this year with a knee injury, but has come on strong of late, rolling up 116 receiving yards and scoring two touchdowns in the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh. Branch had 10 catches for 143 yards and a score in last year's Super Bowl win over Carolina. Twelve-year veteran Troy Brown (17 receptions, 184 yards, 1 TD) had a quiet year on the offensive side of the ball, but has 14 catches in two Super Bowls and could lend an experienced hand.

Eleven of Brady's 28 touchdown passes in 2004 went to tight ends, illustrating the importance of the position in coordinator Charlie Weis' offense, particularly in the red zone. Daniel Graham (30 receptions), who tied for the team lead with seven touchdown catches in the regular season, had four grabs for 46 yards in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Christian Fauria (16 receptions, 2 TD) appears mostly in two-tight end sets. The Patriots have also been known to use linebacker Mike Vrabel as a tight end in goal line situations, as evidenced by Vrabel's two touchdown receptions (totaling three yards) this season. Vrabel caught a one-yard scoring strike from Brady in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl win over Carolina.

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The Patriot line has three holdovers from the unit that started Super Bowl XXXVIII, including center Dan Koppen, left guard Joe Andruzzi, and left tackle Matt Light. This year's right side has a different look than the '03 unit, with tackle Brandon Gorin and guard Steve Neal ranking as the less-experienced members of the group. The New England line gave up just 26 sacks during the regular season, and helped the team finish seventh in NFL rushing offense (133.4 yards per game).

The Eagles ranked second in the NFL in sacks (47) during the regular season, and the presence of end Jevon Kearse (31 tackles, 7.5 sacks) was a major reason why. Kearse has two sacks thus far in the postseason, as does fellow starting DE Derrick Burgess (24 tackles, 2.5 sacks). The interior line in Jim Johnson's 4-3 scheme has been relentless this season, with tackles Corey Simon (32 tackles, 5.5 sacks), Darwin Walker (29 tackles, 4.5 sacks), Hollis Thomas (21 tackles) and Sam Rayburn (28 tackles, 6 sacks) all receiving regular time in the rotation. Thomas, the team's best run-stuffer, plays primarily in rushing situations, while Rayburn is involved mainly on passing downs.

Philadelphia's defense has taken off since Mark Simoneau (48 tackles) was replaced at middle linebacker by Jeremiah Trotter (69 tackles) following a Week 9 loss to the Steelers. In the eight games (excluding the final two of the regular season, in which Philly played few of its starters) since the switch was made, the Eagles have given up an average of 11.9 points per game. Simoneau was moved to weakside linebacker for a time, but injuries to both he and Nate Wayne (29 tackles) thrust Keith Adams (46 tackles) into a starting position, and Adams has performed well. Dhani Jones (71 tackles) has been a fixture at strong side linebacker all season.

The leader for the Philadelphia secondary is unquestionably free safety Brian Dawkins (69 tackles, 4 INT, 3 sacks), who earned a trip to the 2004 Pro Bowl along with strong safety Michael Lewis (88 tackles, 1 INT). Lewis ranked second on the team in tackles during the regular season. Lito Sheppard (56 tackles, 5 INT) and Sheldon Brown (89 tackles, 2 INT) have each performed capably at cornerback this year, with Sheppard earning his first-ever Pro Bowl citation for his efforts. Sheppard scored two touchdowns off interceptions during the regular season.

 

EAGLES OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE

Donovan McNabb (3,875 passing yards, 31 TD, 8 INT) had a career year in 2004, establishing personal bests in passing yards, TDs, completion percentage (64.0), and QB rating (104.7) en route to his fourth straight Pro Bowl selection. The Syracuse product didn't miss a beat in the postseason, completing 38 of 59 passes for 466 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in two playoff wins.

Though Brian Westbrook (73 receptions, 812 rushing yards, 9 TD) probably poses more of a significant threat in the passing game, the third-year pro also offers the Eagles' ground attack a major weapon. Westbrook averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per rush during the regular season, and has 166 rushing yards on 28 carries (5.9 yards per rush) in two 2004 playoff games. In short-yardage and goal line situations, Philadelphia often utilizes veteran Dorsey Levens (410 rushing yards, 4 TD), who revitalized his career this past season at the age of 34. Levens, who had a touchdown run in the NFC Championship against Atlanta, played in Super Bowls XXXI and XXXII with Green Bay, rushing 33 times for 151 yards combined in the two games. Fullback Josh Parry (9 receptions) had a catch in each of Philly's first two playoff contests.

All eyes will be on Terrell Owens (77 receptions, 14 TD), who is hoping to suit up for the first Super Bowl of his career. Owens had surgery to repair a broken fibula and severely sprained right ankle on December 22. In his absence, the Eagles have turned to the receiving triumvirate of Todd Pinkston (36 receptions, 1 TD), Freddie Mitchell (22 receptions, 2 TD) and Greg Lewis (17 receptions), and each of the three has registered a modest impact. Mitchell caught five passes for 65 yards and scored two touchdowns against Minnesota in the NFC Divisional Playoff, and is the only Philly receiver to score a TD since Owens went down. Westbrook, who plays at wideout and in the slot in addition to his backfield duties, has 10 catches in the 2004 playoffs to date.

Nine of McNabb's 31 touchdowns in 2004 went to tight ends, with L.J. Smith (34 receptions, 5 TD) ranking as perhaps the team's most valuable asset in the middle of the field. The 6-3, 258-pound Smith had four receptions for 52 yards against Minnesota in the NFC Divisional Round, but was limited to one catch in the NFC Championship versus Atlanta. No. 2 tight end Chad Lewis (29 receptions, 3 TD), who had two touchdown catches against the Falcons, is out for the Super Bowl with a sprained foot. In two-tight end sets, the team will turn to Jeff Thomason, who was signed on January 24 after being out of football since 2002.

The Philadelphia offensive line has been consistent and solid, with center Hank Fraley, right tackle Jon Runyan and left tackle Tra Thomas making up the core of the unit throughout the season. Thomas was named to the NFC Pro Bowl squad for his efforts. The starting trench unit is rounded out by right guard Jermane Mayberry and left guard Artis Hicks. McNabb was sacked 32 times during the regular season, and Philly running backs averaged a healthy 4.4 yards per rush over that span. McNabb has been sacked just three times in the postseason.

At the forefront of the Patriots' 3-4 defensive scheme is end Richard Seymour, though the All-Pro's status for the Super Bowl is in doubt due to a left knee injury. Seymour (39 tackles, 5 sacks) missed both the AFC Divisional Playoff and AFC Championship game. Ty Warren (48 tackles, 3.5 sacks) is a fixture at the other end, and rookie Vince Wilfork (42 tackles, 2 sacks) and veteran Keith Traylor (28 tackles) have served in a platoon at nose tackle.

Inside linebacker Tedy Bruschi (122 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT) has been at the heart of the Patriots' run-stopping efforts all year, and ranks second on the team with 12 playoff tackles thus far. Bruschi will be playing in his fourth Super Bowl with the Patriots, and will be making his second start. Ted Johnson (77 tackles) figures to begin the game alongside Bruschi, though he has recently been bothered by leg problems. Looking for an encore of his huge performance in Super Bowl XXXVIII will be outside linebacker Mike Vrabel (71 tackles, 5.5 sacks), who came up with six tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble in addition to a one-yard touchdown catch in the victory over Carolina. Willie McGinest (51 tackles, 9.5 sacks), who led New England in sacks this year and had one against Jake Delhomme in the Super Bowl last year, will again start opposite Vrabel.

Many of the Patriots' warts in the secondary have been disguised by the presence of strong safety Rodney Harrison (138 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) and free safety Eugene Wilson (67 tackles, 4 INT), who have combined for four interceptions in the 2004 playoffs. Harrison, who had a team-high nine tackles in Super Bowl XXXVIII, has 22 stops and an interception return for a touchdown in two postseason contests this year. Though the cornerback position is perceived to be a team weakness for the Patriots, the starting duo of Randall Gay (34 tackles, 2 INT) and Asante Samuel (36 tackles, 1 INT) has actually performed well in the absence of opening day starters Ty Law (broken foot) and Tyrone Poole (knee). The Patriots are 7-1 when the two players, who had combined for exactly one pro start when 2004 began, are in the starting lineup together.

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SPECIAL TEAMS

Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri earned a second career Pro Bowl citation for his work during the regular season, when he connected on 31 of 33 field goals, including a perfect 20-20 from inside 40 yards. The South Dakota State product's longest trifecta of the year was from 48 yards, and he missed his only kick of 50 or more. Vinatieri is 4-for-4 thus far in the 2004 playoffs, including a 48-yarder at Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. The veteran is 3-for-5 on field goals in three Super Bowl appearances, with two game-winners. Josh Miller averaged a steady 42 yards per kick during the 2004 regular season, but his 33.7 net average ranked near the bottom of the AFC.

Kevin Faulk (6.7 avg.) handled a majority of the Patriots' punt returns in the regular season, but the team has turned to Troy Brown to assume the duties during the playoffs. Brown, who is averaging 8.5 yards per return in the postseason, posted a 28-yard return against the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Backup receiver Bethel Johnson (24.8 kickoff return avg., 1 TD) has taken all but a handful of the Patriots' kickoff returns during the 2004 season, and ranked among the NFL top-10 in kickoff return average.

The Patriots allowed a touchdown on both a kickoff and punt return during the regular season, with the Bills' Terrence McGee and Jonathan Smith achieving the respective feats in separate meetings with New England. The Pats ranked near the bottom of the league in opponents' punt return (11.8) and kickoff return (23.3) average. Backup linebacker Larry Izzo, who blocked a punt by the Eagles' Dirk Johnson during the preseason, led the Pats with 28 special teams tackles during the regular season.

Though Vinatieri has the higher profile of the Super Bowl's two kickers, Philly's David Akers is his on-field equal, at the very least.Akers was 28- for-33 on field goals during the regular season, including a league-best 17- for-21 on kicks of 40 yards or more. Akers is 4-for-4 on field goals in the '04 playoffs. Johnson finished middle-of-the-NFL-pack in gross distance (42.1 avg.), though his net average (37.4) ranked in the league Top 10.

Backup corner Dexter Wynn (10.8 avg.) and reserve running back Reno Mahe (5.7 avg.) shared punt return duties during the regular season, an arrangement that has carried over to the postseason. Backup safety J.R. Reed (23.1 avg.) and cornerback Roderick Hood (22.4 avg.) both had a hand in the kickoff return game this season, with Reed proving the more explosive of the two players. Reed, a rookie out of South Florida, broke a 48-yard return in the NFC Divisional Playoff against the Vikings.

The Eagles did not allow a kickoff or punt return for a touchdown in 2004, though they ranked near the bottom of the league in opponents' kickoff return average (23.2). During the regular season, Philly was near the top of the league in opponents' punt return average (6.5). Reserve linebacker Ike Reese led Philadelphia with 33 special teams tackles in 2004, followed by fellow LB Keith Adams with 24.

 

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Patriots and Eagles match up evenly from a personnel standpoint, but New England has the decided edge in the experience category. A large number of the Pats' offensive and defensive principles were in this very position last year, and know how to handle the Super Bowl spotlight. The Eagles have made every effort to take a similar businesslike approach in the buildup to the game, but the circus surrounding Owens' status is bound to take some toll on the team, even if the media glare and week's festivities don't. Philly will be competitive, and the contest itself figures to be far more entertaining than the commercials once again. But at the end of the day, it isn't advisable to bet against the robotically cool Belichick, his staff, or his charges in a game of this magnitude.

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