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(Wednesday January 11th, 2006)
One of the most telling stats
of the first week of the NFL playoffs was the
defense. Washington amassed a ridiculous 120
yards of offense against the Buccaneers. Even
more ridiculous is that they WON the game! The
Patriots followed Saturday night with a dominating
performance against the Jaguars, allowing 3
points. Both games sailed under the total.
Isn’t it always like this? Defense is
what wins in January and February, more so than
offense. The better defensive teams generally
make it into the playoffs, then have an edge
on their opponents, especially if that opponent
has defensive weaknesses that can be exploited.
This was evident Sunday when the Steelers fell
behind 17-7 at Cincinnati, but remained calm
as their defense forced Bengal punt after punt
and a slew of interceptions. Truth be told,
the Bengals have a strong, balanced offense,
but that defense struggled badly in the second
half of the year. And that poor defense is why
Pittsburgh came roaring back to a 31-17 victory.
And a large factor in why Cincinnati will be
home watching the rest of the postseason.
That game crept over the total, but the other
Sunday game, Carolina’s 23-0 shutout at
the NY Giants, went under. Which means 75% of
the playoff games have gone under the total
thus far. The Bengals electrified the home crowd
with a 10-0 first quarter lead behind their
talented offense. However, when the final gun
had sounded, the Steelers had 144 rushing yards,
which is their bread and butter, and once they
got the lead, their defense did the rest.
It’s important for a team that goes deeper
into the playoffs to have some semblance of
a balanced offense and a tough defense. An effective
running game adds so much to an offense. If
it’s second and five or third and three,
having a reliable ground game forces the defense
into having to watch for the pass AND the run.
Offensive flexibility and options are important
weapons. An offense that can’t run well
and is forced to pass often, however, like the
Bengals and Jaguars were in the second half,
makes it easier for a defense to attack. The
defense can sit back in coverage and look for
interceptions, or mix in blitzes to harass a
quarterback who they know is very likely to
be dropping back for a pass. This creates sacks
and opportunities for hurried passes and interceptions.
The Steelers and Patriots’ defenses were
both textbook examples this weekend.
Notice that the top five rushing teams as far
as percentage of running plays called this season
were the Steelers (57%), followed by the Broncos,
Bears, Falcons, and Seahawks. What stands out
about that group? Four of the five are still
alive for the Super Bowl, with three earning
first round byes.
While the Steelers used defense and several
trick plays in their impressive comeback, the
Carolina Panthers didn’t do anything fancy
Sunday. They ran the football for 223 yards
against the Giants, then played an aggressive,
choking defense that held the Giants to 132
total yards. That formula may not excite TV
viewers, but the Panthers used that same plan
to win the NFC title just two years ago. In
the NFC championship game that season, Carolina
upset the Eagles 14-6 on the road, in a game
that went way under the total. And the Panthers
had the same blueprint Sunday in their 23-0
rout at the NY Giants as a road dog.
The Bears play a similar style under Lovie
Smith with the No. 2 overall defense and the
best defense yet of all the remaining playoff
teams. And they face the Panthers this weekend.
Don’t look for a lot of trickery, especially
in the Chicago cold, but for both sides to play
their games: power football and smash-mouth
defense. A 14-6 game may not get huge TV ratings,
but history shows that formula wins often in
January. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Big Al McMordie is a documented member of The
Professional Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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