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(Thursday January 19th, 2006)
Before we look ahead to this
weekend's NFL conference championship games,
let's take a look backward. What was all the
talk in the NFL over the last month? Should
the Colts sit their starters to have them rested
for the playoffs or not? There were many people
that split on the answer, but I think we'd all
agree what the correct answer is: Play 'em!
Or at least, rest any injured players, but don't
bench the majority of starters the last two
weeks of the regular season, even if everything
is sewed up.
That was the position the Colts found themselves
in after that 13-0 start. They had clinched
everything: The division title, the bye week,
home field for the postseason, the No. 1 spot.
However, anyone who watched Sunday's loss to
the Steelers saw an Indy team that was rusty
for most of the game. Very rusty.
The Colts were out of sync most of the way in
their 21-18 loss to the Steelers. Overall, having
a bye week gives a team enough time, two weeks,
to rest and prepare. It takes time and practice
to get a team in sync because there are so many
players that need to work together in unison:
Blocking patterns, running backs hitting the
proper holes, lineman pulling, receivers running
patterns, quarterbacks getting the football
to them on timing routes, etc.
Think back to the final regular season game
for the Denver Broncos. Denver was a 12-point
dog at San Diego in a meaningless game for the
Broncos. They had everything sewed up and needed
only to stay healthy. Instead, Mike Shanahan
had several starters play significant first
half minutes. They also played inspired football,
dominating the Chargers in an impressive performance.
I think back to the regular season finale a
year ago when the Patriots hosted the terrible
49ers at home in a meaningless game, yet Bill
Belichick played the starters for three quarters.
The reason was a little different, as the Patriots
played a sluggish first half, tied 3-3, as a
big favorite. Belichick didn't like the performance
and sent the starters back out for the second
half, injuries be damned! They followed the
next few weeks with dominating performances
on the way to winning another Super Bowl title.
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With the four remaining teams, does anything
stand out? Yes, defense!
Carolina and Pittsburgh are ranked No. 3 and
4 in the NFL in total defense, with the Broncos
and Seahawks at No. 15 and 16. More important
is run defense, and notice that all the remaining
teams are in the Top 5 in the NFL at stopping
the run! It goes Denver (2nd), Pittsburgh (3rd),
Carolina (4th) and Seattle (5th). One of those
will win the Super Bowl, so again, stuffing
the run is a huge key to building a championship
defense.
That hasn't translated into a significant amount
of unders for those teams, but keep in mind
that 6 of the 8 playoff games thus far have
gone under the total. Yes, it should come as
no shock that defense wins championships in
all sports, once again!
Bryan Leonard is a documented member of The
Professional Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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