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NFL Defenses
The top 4 defenses in the NFL
last year? In order, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Carolina
and Pittsburgh. What stands out about that list?
All four made the playoffs, two made the Championship
games and one made the Super Bowl (and won). If
you think that's simplifying things too much,
notice that the No. 1 offensive team in the NFL
the last two season (Chiefs) didn't even make
the playoffs those years. And last year's top
passing team (Cardinals) was 5-11 straight up
and 6-10 against the spread. Yes, it's always
a good time to examine the importance of team
defense.
Teams that can't stop the opponent from moving
the football or scoring are at a huge disadvantage.
Even teams with offensive deficiencies can win
the Super Bowl if their defenses are strong enough.
The Patriots in 2001 and 2003 had very little
running games, just like Tampa Bay during the
2002 season. And, of course, the 2000 Baltimore
Ravens had little running AND passing games, yet
rolled to a Super Bowl title with a monster defense.
You really can't have defensive deficiencies
and do this. We are into October now and the top
defenses are very surprising list: Baltimore,
Kansas City, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami and
New Orleans. The Ravens and Bears were expected
to be somewhere in the Top 5, but the Chiefs,
Falcons and Saints are definitely a surprise.
The Chiefs have played strong offensive teams
like the Bengals and Broncos and held their own
defensively. The surprising Saints have faced
the offenses of Carolina, Atlanta and Green Bay,
winning two of those. Atlanta had a busy off-season,
signing veteran free agent safety Lawyer Milloy,
trading for pass rushing star DE John Abraham
and adding NT Grady Jackson during preseason to
help with the run defense. Those moves appear
to be paying dividends as the Falcons are allowing
10 points and just 70 yards rushing per game.
If you want to look for teams coming off bad seasons
that might be in for better years, how they upgraded
the defense in the offseason is a good place to
start.
The Chicago Bears are the early front-runner
in the NFC after that impressive 37-6 pasting
of the Seahawks. The Bears win with defense, of
course, though they have an improved offense.
Chicago is no longer an easy
play under the total, as they are 2-0-1 over
the last three weeks. They were on a 22-11 under
run coming into this season, but that may no longer
be the case because of the improvement of the
offense.
Going back a step further, here's a list of the
Top 10 defenses in the 2004 NFL season: Pittsburgh,
Buffalo, Washington, Denver, Tampa Bay, Baltimore,
Jets, Miami, New England and Philadelphia. What
stands out? Pittsburgh went 15-1, and 5 of those
10 teams made the playoffs, with the Patriots
and Eagles squaring off in the Super Bowl. By
contrast, only 4 of the bottom 14 teams defensively
even made the playoffs, and had a postseason record
of 2-4.
This season the biggest surprise has been Tampa
Bay, long a defensive dynamo, the Bucs have plummeted
to 19th in total defense. In fact, they were second
worst against the run during that 0-3 SU, 1-2
ATS start! Keep in mind that teams that can't
stop the run are often better to bet against than
a play on. Currently the top rushing defenses
are Baltimore, San Diego, Atlanta, Pittsburgh,
Washington, Seattle, Chicago, Jacksonville and
Dallas. It's no secret that defenses will get
a team into January, and those with poor defenses
will be home watching.
Bryan Leonard is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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