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(Saturday January 14th, 2006)
Time to look at the pointspread
numbers in Round 1 of the Playoffs, as the Wild
card games held true to form for the most part,
with the big surprise in my mind, the Redskins
winning at Tampa Bay, proving their worth against
a team I thought was better. It brings into
play the BIGGEST item on anyone's agenda in
the Playoffs and handicapping them, turnovers.
You simply, at this level, cannot make mistakes
with special teams, and turnovers. One must
also account now for defense and red zone offense
efficiency.
The round 1 ATS numbers are interesting, as
I once again look to a respected publication
to quote you some interesting facts and figures
about this opening round on Saturday and Sunday.
Home favorites versus the spread since 1976
are a solid 60-48-3 ATS and home teams versus
the spread are 64-49-3 overall. Home teams do
have an advantage this time of year, but favorites
since 1976 are also 84-31 straight up at home
or on road, so it proves the better teams are
winning.
When teams are favored by 3 points or less
in this scenario since 1976, they are only 6-11-1
ATS. Many times in these type of low spread
games the teams are evenly matched and just
a few big plays will determine the outcome of
the entire game, versus the spread and straight
up.
Remember when you look at these numbers dating
back to 1976, that was also before the age of
free agency, and there is more parity in the
NFL in these times. If you look at home teams
since 1998, they are still a solid value in
most cases, at 16-7-1 ATS. Round 1 home teams
are Chicago, Seattle, Indy and Denver.
I would make a guess that 2 to 3 will win straight
up, and 2 or more will cover, however I will
make you invest some money to get my plays to
find out who! I can tell you it is again, a
tale of two tales this Saturday and Sunday.
The teams who play the best defense, run the
ball the best and turn it over the least amount
of times will win their games, bottom line.
I also look to the kicking game as a barometer
to see, in a tight game who I might place some
emphasis one as well. Coaching goes somewhat
overlooked, but having a solid coach, with some
post season experience also is a big plus, but
remember as I eluded to last week, ANYONE playing
this weekend is a top shelf team with playmakers
everywhere on both sides of the ball and any
underdog can win it if given the ball enough
times with special teams blunders and turnovers,
because no one is here by accident.
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NFL Playoff Pointspreads - and vegas nfl pro
wagering. We also saw last week that inexperience
played a part especially in the Giants and the
Bucs games. Chris Simms for the Bucs simply
gave it away in the first half, as well as rookie
RB Williams who fumbled and it was returned
for a TD. In the Giants case, Eli Manning followed
in big brothers footsteps in the playoffs, tossing
it up for grabs against a good secondary, which
resulted in numerous Carolina points. All in
all some very good games with a few keys in
each match-up, that at least on paper provide
opportunities against the line. Keep in mind
it boils down to a finite number of items, and
hopefully you found some of them here to key
in on.
Good luck this week, Tony George
Tony George is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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