HANDICAPPING SUPERBOWL

As I enter my 14th Super Bowl selection as a professional handicapper (10-3 ATS over that span), it still amazes me how popular of a wagering event it is, as both national TV exposure and plenty of hype, even out of Las Vegas ,and offshore with all the exotic wagers, brings bettors out of the woodwork. With many of these exotic wagers, it is clean-up time for Las Vegas books and offshore books as well, with more losers than winners from the betting public. I thought I would touch on the game itself and some trends over the years to highlight, because we all know this is the biggest thing in sports every year, and there is some money to be made on the final game of the NFL this season without question.

When it comes to prop bets, there is ample opportunity to make some cash. In the past 2 years I have won all 6 prop bets on the past 2 Super Bowls, and those wagers are one which you CAN handicap and the hold merit. Rushing yards over and unders for specific players, number of field goals over and unders, scoring in quarters, and others like those all have a proven track record of stats and numbers to work with from the season. Bets like heads or tails on the coin flip, and other exotic wagers I tend to stay away from, and grab opportunity with real "meat and potatoes" type wagers that provide opportunity, I suggest you do the same.

The Game- You have 2 teams and 2 coaches here that are rock solid football teams. This match-up should provide some fireworks in terms of excitement and scoring. Both teams have something to prove and both coaches also have something to prove. Bill Cowher is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and the one thing missing from his eventual appearance in Canton Ohio at the Hall of Fame is a Super Bowl win under his belt. Of course on the other side of the field you have Mike Holmgren, who has went to 2 Super Bowls as a head coach (he won 2 rings as an assistant at SF), and is 1-1, but no coach has ever won a Super Bowl, as a head coach of 2 different teams, although it has been attempted, and Bill Parcells most recently comes to mind. A battle of elder statesmen in terms of coaching tenure and experience, and both coaches have plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball to create some game strategy. It should be a real chess match on Sunday night.

The Steelers- Pittsburgh under Bill Cohwer has always been about a tough minded, physical game. The ground game is their bread and butter and we all know it, but they used QB Rothlesburger as their main weapon in both the Colts and Bronco's win, establishing early on their were not going to try to ram in down their throats, but mix it up and keep a wide open offensive attack from the start, which I felt really threw a wrench into both those opponents game plan. The Steelers also blitzed a great deal on defense and brought their safety's up in run support while playing man-you-man in coverage, and while that can burn you, neither Peyton Manning or Jake Plummer could overcome the pressure, nor did their offensive lines. I look for them to come out again, balance the attack and continue to use a pressure defense.

The Seahawks-Seattle is playing up the "no respect" angle, but I assure you that Pittsburgh knows they are good. Whenever you run the ball as well as Shawn Alexander does (over 1800 yards), and league MVP, you have everyone's attention in the NFL, because a great running game means a great offensive line, and it means keeping defense's honest to stop the run. The one thing you should know is Mike Holmgren likes to create mis-matches in terms of his personnel, and score points with those mis-matches, and I think he is a great play caller as a coach. In terms of Seattle as a whole, QB Hasselbeck's rise as a star is due to this, because they do not have a world class receiver on this team, but guys that make plays. They led the NFL in scoring, but were mediocre on defense, but as always, if you cannot shut them down, outscore them, and that what is what Seattle has done to land themselves in this game.

In the last 10 Super Bowls, the favorite, in this case Pittsburgh, have went 2-6-2 ATS against the opening line, and the last 4 Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal, many of them Adam Venatari's! Many of the past 39 Super Bowls have been one sided games, but with the recent parity levels in the NFL, we have seen some good ones over the past 4 or 5 years. Both teams enter this game with an impressive 2005 resume, and the Steelers beating the #1 through the #3 seeds all on the road to get here is most impressive, but do they have enough gas in the tank with a 4th straight road game, while Seattle enjoyed dominance at home? Time will tell this Sunday. In terms of scoring, no one knows the game plan here except for players and coaches, but in the past 10 years, the overs have a slight edge at 5-4-1 ATS. I think both teams will score, but in big games, experienced coaches stress defense, and the team who plays it the best on Sunday will win in my opinion, and both teams are capable.

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