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The NFL offseason is not yet
a fully formed being, but it has a heartbeat, discernable
appendages, and some noticeable kicking ability.
That introduction is dedicated to all of my friends
with wives either currently or recently pregnant,
which at the moment, seems to be most of them.
The point is that now is not the time to grade
the league's offseason winners and losers. We'll
all be wearing shorts and flip-flops when we have
enough of the picture to begin anointing the next
NFL dynasties and assigning blame to the mismanaged
and downtrodden.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the most
recent sonogram, with a spotlight upon those setting
themselves up best for either success or failure
in 2005:
ON THE RISE 1. Minnesota
- Lament the departure of Randy Moss all you want,
but the Vikings have just become THE legitimate
contender to the Eagles in the NFC. Minnesota's
biggest weaknesses were on defense, so what did
it do? Went out and plucked four outstanding defensive
players - free safety Darren Sharper, cornerback
Fred Smoot, defensive tackle Pat Williams, and linebacker
Sam Cowart - that will transform the unit overnight.
Moss is gone, but the Vikings took some steps to
overcome his absence, re-signing tight end Jermaine
Wiggins and snaring former Raven disappointment
Travis Taylor to complement Nate Burleson and whatever
receiver the team gets with the No. 7 pick in next
month's draft (Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams).
Mike Tice's team may have lost Moss' style, but
they could get to Detroit for Super Bowl XL based
on their new-found substance.
2. Miami
- The Dolphins made some subtle changes during the
free agency period, as blowing up a team that has
more talent than say, the Browns or the 49ers, was
not necessary. Miami filled some needs, bringing
in ex-Titan Kevin Carter to clog up the defensive
interior, adding right tackle Stockar McDougle for
veteran help on a thin offensive line, and quietly
ushering in Gus Frerotte to run new offensive coordinator
Scott Linehan's system. The Fins will have their
choice of running backs at No. 2 in the draft and
should be able to get more offensive line help with
their two third-round selections (they traded their
second-round selection to the Eagles for A.J. Feeley).
What's more, Nick Saban excised some baggage (WR
David Boston, QB Jay Fiedler, FB Rob Konrad), and
put an immediate stamp on his team in the process.
3. Cincinnati -
There were no sexy offseason free agent signings
in the Queen City, but the Bengals made a big step
toward their first playoff berth in 16 years by
keeping much of their talented young offensive core
intact. Cincinnati re-signed both running back Rudi
Johnson and wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and continuity
should be a big mark in the favor of Carson Palmer
and the offensive attack. The signing of defensive
tackle Bryan Robinson will help shore up the oft-suspect
run-stopping unit, and the Bengals should be able
to pick up an impact starter or two on the defensive
side of the ball via the draft.
4. Arizona -
The Cardinals were a couple of players and a couple
of plays from competing for the NFC West title last
season, and though they ended up a disappointing
6-10, you got the feeling that head coach Dennis
Green was beginning to change the losing culture
of the franchise. With that in mind, Green went
out and got a few of "his kind" of players
to step in and contribute on defense - strong safety
Robert Griffith, linebacker Orlando Huff, and end
Chike Okeafor - as well as a veteran quarterback
in Kurt Warner and sturdy right tackle in Oliver
Ross to chip in on the other side of the ball. If
the Cardinals can add a frontline running back (likely
through the draft, though Travis Henry is still
on the trading block) and another defensive playmaker
or two, there's no reason they can't compete with
the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers in the division.
5. Washington
- Most would speak negatively of the past couple
of months in Redskin Park, since the team lost two
of its top defenders - linebacker Antonio Pierce
and cornerback Fred Smoot - and also took a major
salary cap hit just to get rid of wideout Laveranues
Coles. But things are actually looking up for the
Redskins, particularly on offense. Signing run-blocking
center/guard Casey Rabach away from the Ravens was
huge, as was reworking the deal of tackle Chris
Samuels. The other tackle should be Jon Jansen,
who missed all of 2004 with a torn Achilles, and
the presence of three major o- line horses should
greatly benefit Clinton Portis and the Skins' run-first
offense. The team will likely use their No. 9 pick
on a receiver (possibly Mike Williams) to complement
newly acquired wideouts Santana Moss and David Patten,
and shouldn't lose a great deal of sleep about replacing
Smoot with Walt Harris at corner. If LaVar Arrington
returns healthy, the Washington defense shouldn't
miss a beat, and that spells trouble for the NFC's
other wild card contenders.
ON THE DECLINE 1.
Green Bay - How long can Brett Favre,
who will turn 36 in October, be expected to carry
this team? The Packers allowed two cornerstones
of their offensive success - guards Marco Rivera
and Mike Wahle - to high-tail it out of cheese country,
and have done basically nothing to upgrade one of
the league's worst secondary groups. In fact, Green
Bay let their most credible member of the '04 secondary,
Darren Sharper, slip away to NFC North rival Minnesota.
With the Vikings and even the Bears and Lions counting
on being better in '05, the sand in Green Bay's
hourglass could be about to disappear.
2. Buffalo
- Forget that late-season playoff run, the Bills
have taken a step back. Either cut-rate newcomer
Kelly Holcomb or the inexperienced J.P. Losman will
be taking the snaps in 2005, and will be operating
behind a line that just lost left tackle Jonas Jennings.
On the other side of the ball, the departure of
key run-stuffer Pat Williams to the Vikings will
undoubtedly be felt in a big way. Don't expect the
Patriots, Jets, and improving Dolphins to be very
forgiving to Buffalo's plight come the fall.
3. St. Louis
- The Rams entered the offseason needing lots of
help on defense, and they seem to have plugged their
holes with scotch tape rather than concrete. Former
Viking Chris Claiborne and former Cowboy Dexter
Coakley will step into starting linebacker jobs,
but Claiborne has mostly underachieved as a pro
and Coakley will be 33 in October. St. Louis' approach
in the awful secondary was to move Pisa Tinoisamoa
from linebacker to safety, meaning the team will
have two converted LBs (Adam Archuleta is the other)
in the defensive backfield. The offensive and defensive
lines both needed addressing, and to this point,
neither has been. The flag football-style offense
that improbably carried the Rams to within a game
of the NFC Championship in '04 will have to do the
same this season.
4. Denver -
The Broncos' offseason readjustments always seem
to end up making sense, but this one is hard to
figure. The three big signings were chronic underachiever
and DT Gerard Warren as well as linebacker Ian Gold,
who was a disappointment in Tampa Bay this past
season. The best pass-rusher on a team that largely
struggled in that regard, Reggie Hayward, is now
a Jaguar, and safety Kenoy Kennedy and underrated
cornerback Kelly Herndon are gone from the secondary.
Combine these coming and goings with the presence
of the combustible Jake Plummer at quarterback,
an uncertain backfield situation, and a pretty average
group of receivers and you're left with more questions
than answers in the Mile High City.
5. Pittsburgh
- Any team that goes 15-1 is sure to take at least
a small step back the next year, and the temptation
not to do much tinkering with the personnel that
got you to 15-1 is certainly understandable. But
the Steelers had a couple of areas they could have
upgraded, cornerback most notably, and instead chose
to rest on their laurels. They'll probably be back
in the playoffs next year, but the Steelers haven't
made the key additions necessary to be a lock to
compete for a Super Bowl berth.
A grab bag of news and notes from the National
Football League:
FOOTBALL FIESTA (AND WHAT IT MEANS)
The long-discussed plans for a regular season NFL
game outside of the U.S. were finally crystallized
on Tuesday, when the league formally announced that
the Cardinals and 49ers will meet on Sunday, October
2nd, in Mexico City. The ESPN-televised night game
will be the first regular season contest played
outside the U.S in the 86-year-history of the league.
What was not revealed was the league's future plans
in the way of international competition. Arizona,
which annually boasts the NFL's lowest attendance,
was more than willing to give up a home game in
the spirit of growing the game internationally,
but when the Cardinals move into their new stadium
in 2006, there's little chance they would give up
what amounts to 12.5 percent of their home schedule
to accommodate the NFL's marketing pursuits. The
same goes for the NFL's other 31 teams, who would
have to be dragged to a neutral site kicking and
screaming before giving up the huge payday that
a home game represents. The only way owners are
likely to embrace the international idea beyond
2005 is if the regular season schedule is expanded
from 16 to 18 games, a move that has been rumored
to be imminent for years. Don't be shocked to see
talk of extending the NFL season, either by reducing
the preseason from four to two games and/or eliminating
bye weeks, heat up again in the near future, with
the international situation prompting the discussion.
AT THE STARTING BLOCKS Also announced
this week was the NFL's opening weekend schedule,
which will commence with a battle between the Super
Bowl champion Patriots and the new- look Raiders
on Thursday night. The 4:15 ET Sunday FOX game will
feature the Chargers and Cowboys; the Sunday evening
ESPN contest has the Ravens hosting the Colts; and
Monday Night Football opens with a rematch of the
2004 NFC Championship game between the Falcons and
the Eagles. All intriguing games, all good choices.
No complaints here, except that the NFL season is
still five-and-a-half months away.
ENFORCING THE LAW The free agency
period is slowly careening to a halt, with just
a handful of notable players still seeking homes.
The most intriguing player still on the market is
cornerback Ty Law, the four-time Pro Bowler who
was cut by the Patriots in February. Law's broken
right foot is not fully healed, which is why no
team has snapped him up, but the Chiefs, Browns,
Jets, Cowboys, and even the Patriots are apparently
interested in his services. According to CBS Sportsline,
New England gave Law and his agent, Carl Poston,
a standing offer of four years, $26 million, but
the Boston Globe reported the next day that the
Patriots refuted that story. The teams that strike
out on Law could enter the market for Miami's Patrick
Surtain or Oakland's Charles Woodson, who are both
on the trading block, or set their sights on a second-tier
player like Andre Dyson of the Titans or Nick Harper
of the Colts, both of whom are unrestricted free
agents.
RANDOM THOUGHTS -There are still
a few decent running backs on the market, including
the disgruntled Travis Henry and free agent Anthony
Thomas, and for a heftier price tag, Shaun Alexander
and Edgerrin James. It's not that any are unwanted,
but teams are waiting to discern how the draft shakes
out first. It's a big year for running backs, and
most want to see if they can get a diamond in the
rough, such as N.C. State's T.A. McClendon, near
the end of the first day before bringing in a veteran
with some more miles on the odometer.
-Looks like the path is clear for New York City
to host the Super Bowl in 2010. What a coup for
the Big Apple. It should finally put that sleepy
burg on the map.
Around
the NFL
2005 Draft Order
- 49ers - Dolphins - Browns - Bears - Buccaneers
- Titans - Raiders - Cardinals - Redskins - Lions
- Cowboys - Chargers - Texans - Panthers - Chiefs
- Saints - Bengals - Vikings Rams - Cowboys - Jaguars
- Ravens - Seahawks Packers - Broncos - Jets - Falcons
- Chargers - Colts - Steelers - Eagles - Patriots
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On Football Writer Ray Monohan is an NFL analyst
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