With
Cadillac In Shop, Pittman Takes Over … Filling
in for the injured Carnell “Cadillac” Williams,
Michael Pittman rushed for a 157 yards on
just 15 attempts and a TD to help Tampa Bay
tame the Dolphins 27-13 at home. Miami came
in with the league’s No.2 run defense (allowing
just 84 yards per game) and came out wondering
if they had just been jobbed by their team’s
auto mechanic, who assured them that Cadillac’s
backup was a lemon. But Miami is 2-0 both
SU and ATS at home and hosts Kansas City this
week.
Brunell Has Naysayers Eating Crow … Don’t
Blame Mark Brunell in Washington’s latest
28-21 road loss at Kansas City. The much beleaguered
QB completed 25-of-31 passing for three touchdowns
and zero interceptions. For the season, the
Redskins signal caller has 9/2 TD/INT ratio
and a 91.5 QB rating. After falling to the
Broncos last week at Mile High, the Skins
lost their second straight game despite outgaining
both opponents by a combined 845 yards to
531. In this week’s installment of “I wouldn’t
have guessed that in a million years,” Santana
Moss now leads the NFL in receiving yards
with 173 after hauling in 173 against the
Chiefs. Brunell invited the media and critics
after the game to dinner at his house where
a heaping portion of “Kiss My Ass” was served
to all in attendance. He should have a field
day against San Francisco this week considering
that the 49ers are 0-2 both SU and ATS on
the road and allowing better than 450 yards
per game.
Broncos Playing Mistake Free Football …
After losing their season opener against
Miami, Denver has reeled off five straight
wins to improve to 5-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. The
latest victim, New England fell to the Broncos
28-20 in Mile High as a 3.5-point road dog.
We never thought we would use the words “mistake
free” and “Jake Plummer” in the same sentence,
but The Snake went his fourth game in a row
without throwing an interception. For that
matter, Denver hasn’t turned the ball over
since their second game of the season against
San Diego. Their +6 turnover ratio is 4th
best in the NFL, but they are facing the Giants
next week who boast an even better +9 TO ratio,
second best in the league behind the Bengals.
If Plummer reverts to his old self as the
season progresses, he should have no problem
starring in his own Adult Movie “The Snake”
with that horrendous Ron Jeremy-like moustache
he is wearing these days.
2+2 Really Does Equal Four … LaDainian
Tomlinson hit the trifecta by rushing, throwing
and catching a TD in the Chargers 27-14 road
win at Oakland. In this week’s “Football is
Not Rocket Science Department,” Marty Schottenheimer
seems to be finally realizing what every armchair
QB in the nation already knows: The probability
of the Chargers winning greatly increases
with each LT touch. In the Chargers three
losses, which came by a combined 9 points,
LT averaged 19 carries per game. And you know
what is coming … In their three wins, though,
LT averaged 26 carries. The Bolts are now
2-0-1 ATS on the road but face the Eagles
who are coming off a bye week and humiliating
33-10 road loss to Dallas the week prior.
Philly is also 3-1 both SU and ATS after a
loss the past two seasons with the lone setback
coming in week 16 last season when they benched
all of their starters because they had already
clinched home field advantage throughout the
playoffs.
Vikings Boat Sinking Fast … Minnesota
outgained Chicago 283 yards to 182 but were
walloped 28-3 and have now been outscored
135 to 67 on the season! The Vikings were
coming off a bye week but couldn’t overcome
14 penalties and the latest scandal surrounding
the team involving a couple of chartered boats,
strippers, booze, used condoms and a boatload
of Vikings players. We hear Leonardo DiCaprio
will play Mike Tice in the upcoming drama,
“Titanic II: The Fall of a Coach.” On the
flip side, the Bears struggling 28th ranked
offense managed just 192 yards behind the
ineffective Orton (16/25 passing, 125 yards),
who still is in dire need of a haircut. They
face another struggling offense this week
at home against Baltimore. Combined, the Ravens
and Bears are 2-8 (o/u) on the season.
Jets Pounded On Stat Sheet Again … New
York was outgained for the fifth time in six
games this past weekend and held the ball
for just 21:30 minutes in their latest 27-17
road loss to Buffalo. Testaverde threw for
just 161 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT on 12/26 passing
and reminded Jets fans that he is old enough
to be most of their great grandfathers. On
the bright side, Curtis Martin piled up 148
yards on the ground but did so against the
NFL’s 30th ranked rushing defense. The Green
Airplanes—who travel to Atlanta this week—are
now 3-6-1 ATS their last ten as an underdog
(1-3 ATS this year) and 0-3 ATS on the road
this season.
Falcons Flounder In Win … Atlanta escaped
with a 34-31road win against New Orleans despite
being outgained by a whopping 456 yards to
256. Their rushing defense now ranks 28th
after allowing 160 yards to a Deuce-McAllister-less
Saints team. The Falcons needed two touchdowns
from a blocked field goal and fumble return
and typical Saints miscues to pull out the
win. They also benefited from a highly questionable
defensive holding call at the end of the regulation
that allowed them to kick the game winning
FG after missing the first attempt. Atlanta
is now 2-6 ATS their last eight on the road
after dropping the cash as a 4.5-point road
favorite against NO. The flip side is that
they are 9-2 ATS after a road game going back
to last season and face the descending Jets
this week.
Steelers Backups Rusty … With Ben Roethlisberger
and Hines Ward out because of injuries, Pittsburgh
fell to Jacksonville 23-17 at home in overtime.
Doing his best anti-Christ impersonation in
the eyes of the Steelers fans, backup QB Tommy
Maddox completed just 11of-28 passing for
154 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions.
The last Maddox pick came in overtime and
was returned by the Jags for a game winning
TD. Afterwards, Bill Cowher’s snarl became
so intense that it single handily raised the
temperature in the northern hemisphere by
three degrees, according to the National Weather
Bureau service. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-3
ATS after a loss going back to 2003 and 2-0
both SU and ATS on the road this season. But
they will have their hands full this week
against 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS Cincinnati on
the trail.
Dom Capers Pants Catch On Fire After Latest
Loss… Houston dropped to 0-5 SU and 1-4
ATS after being blasted by Seattle 42-10 on
the road. We would have to kill three oak
trees to list all of the reasons for the Texans
struggles this season. But one trend that
isn’t quite as obvious as the others: It took
the Texans five games to force their first
defensive turnover. The next turn-over might
be Dom Capers job. When reporters noticed
that Capers seat was on fire after the game,
the Texans lame duck coach responded “Oh,
I am not on the hot seat. I just had bad Chinese
food last night.” With Indianapolis on deck,
word has it that Las Vegas is setting an early
line of the Colts -1,000.
Big
D in Dallas … Dallas overcame four turnovers,
missed two missed field goals and allowed
game tying TD with 19 seconds to edge the
Giants 16-13 in overtime (but failed to cover
as a 4.5-point home favorite). While the Cowboys
outgained the Giants 385 yards to 270 and
held the ball for forty minutes, Bill Parcells
can probably thank his team’s defense for
the victory. After holding the Eagles to 129
yards and 10 points last week, DAL limited
the Giants and the NFL’s No 1 scoring unit
(not a typo) to just one touchdown. The Cowboys
defense will be tested this week on the road
against Seattle, which is 3-0 both SU and
ATS at home.
Not So Sweet Carolina … Carolina squeaked
out a 21-20 road win at Detroit but failed
to cover the 2.5-point impost. And while they
outgained the Lions 317 to 209, um let us
not forget who mans the Detroit offense these
days. Yes, Joey Harrington of the 55.6 QB
rating for the season variety. The Panthers
look pretty pedestrian this year in most facets
of the game despite being touted by many as
the frontrunner to represent the NFC in the
Superbowl. They rank in the middle of the
pack in many major statistical categories,
have played a weak schedule (with four of
their six game coming New Orleans, Green Bay,
Arizona and Detroit) and Jake Delhomme is
doing his best Aaron Brooks impersonation
by throwing interceptions at the most inconvenient
times. The good news: Delhomme has thrown
eight picks already but could probably throw
eight more in their next game against the
disarray Vikings and their 27th ranked defense
and still lead his team to victory.
Just the facts ma’am … Home favorites
are slightly profitable at 33-29 ATS this
season (excluding ties). But only one range
within this group is profitable: namely, home
favorites of -3 or less are 19-10 ATS while
those above the field goal threshold are an
unprofitable 14-19 ATS. Road favorites meanwhile
are 13-12 ATS with the various price ranges
all hovering around a 50% mean. Overall, favorites
of any kind (home or away) are slightly ahead
at 46-41 ATS. Within this range, favorites
of -3 or less are 25-16 ATS while all other
favorites are merely 21-25 ATS.
William Foote is a documented member of The
Professional Handicappers League.
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