BODOG Fantasy Football:
SLEEPERS & BUSTS - High Times For Priest Are
Over
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is coming, read this and you're primed for success
August. A month normally dedicated
to Major League Baseball, the PGA Championship
and the NFL preseason. For some, however, it is
the month in which dynasties are built, when pre-draft
rankings take place and keeper leagues are made.
August is the month when fantasy
football takes off. And this season, Bodog is
getting in on the action. Bodog will be offering
a weekly re-draft league that will be available
before Week 1. Weekly winners will snag big prizes
and the top regular-season finisher grabs a massive
grand prize.
In order to help out all aspiring
Bodog Fantasy Football players, the following
tip sheet will reveal players that might fly under
the radar, be poised for breakout seasons, or
end up as big disappointments.
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Holmes turns
32 in October, with major hip and knee injuries
hampering his last two NFL campaigns. If
the Chiefs have any aspirations of playing
deep into January, they'll need Holmes to
survive a 16-game schedule, and be healthy
for the playoffs. Johnson's emergence late
last season will help Holmes stay fresh
- but likely decrease his fantasy output.
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RUNNING BACKS
BUST: Priest Holmes,
Kansas City Chiefs
Dick Vermeil has a plan: to handle
Holmes like a piece of fine china this season.
That should be a massive red flag for potential
owners of the Kansas City TD machine.
Cause For Concern: Holmes only
suited up for eight games in 2004. July and August
have seen Holmes take every other training camp
practice off. The Chiefs have also developed a
variety of third-down packages featuring backup
RB Larry Johnson, and expressed interest in having
the former Penn State star in a situational dual
backfield with Holmes.
While all these measures are in
place to keep Priest fresh, they also appear to
decrease the likelihood of a 300-plus-carry season.
Remember this: one of the big reasons Holmes has
put up such phenomenal numbers since 2002 was
Kansas City's addiction to keeping him on the
field. Goal-line, short-yardage, blocking sets,
passing downs - Holmes was ridiculously overworked
at times, especially while on Vermeil's watch
(and, admittedly, while gunning for the record
books).
The positives? Priest was putting
up Nintendo numbers, especially in the TD category.
The negatives? It all took its
toll.
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Jones will
be an excellent early-season pickup - a
guy who can be dealt when his value is high,
or when Benson is ready to take on a bigger
offensive responsibility.
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SLEEPER: Thomas
Jones, Chicago Bears
While the selection of Cedric Benson
provided Chicago with a blue-chip running prospect,
the Texas product remains a risky fantasy acquisition.
Dubbed "Little Ricky"
because of similarities with former Longhorn star
Ricky Williams, Benson has forged a troubled path
similar to his holistic-healing predecessor. He
pled guilty to misdemeanor trespass in 2003 -
and a year earlier, was charged with marijuana
possession.
No Grossman, no Benson,
no
problem? Jones is prepared to
carry the offensive load. The start to his NFL
career has been notable as well - if only for
his absence from training camp. With Benson mired
in a holdout, the door for Jones, the incumbent
starter, is wide open.
Jones will benefit from Benson's
lack of snaps, repetitions and playbook familiarity.
He provided the Bears with a solid 2004 season,
running for 948 yards while scoring seven TDs:
a sign that, if called upon, Jones can carry the
load as a starter. Already a fantastic third-down
passing option out of the backfield (56 receptions
for 427 yards last year), Jones could be on the
verge of an unanticipated workload this season.
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BUST: Duce Staley,
Pittsburgh Steelers
From the Steelers' perspective,
the one-two punch provided by Staley and Jerome
Bettis last season was a tremendous success.
From a fantasy perspective, it
was awful.
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Dicey
Duce: The knee injury makes
Staley a member of Pittsburgh's
dreaded "running back by
committee". Staley owners watched helplessly
as The Bus turned into The Vulture, circling
for goal-line carcasses all season long.
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Despite having relatively
similar numbers in terms of carries and rushing
yards (Bettis had 941 yards on 250 carries; Staley
netted 830 on 192), the touchdown disparity was
alarming - Bettis found the end zone 13 times
while Staley broke the plain just once.
Despite the imbalance in goal-line
opportunities, Duce said all the right things
as Pittsburgh romped to a 15-1 record. Chances
are he'll assume the role of good soldier again
this season, as the Jerome Bettis Retirement Tour
has one final swing through the NFL.
Staley's gimpy hamstring kept him
inactive for the second half of 2004 - highlighting
the fact that, in the last five years, Duce hasn't
been a feature back. Since 2000, Staley has registered
only one 16-start, 1,000-yard rushing season.
In keeping with this tendency to be injured, Staley
went under the knife in early August to fix a
meniscus tear in his right knee. He's expected
to be out until the opening week of the season.
With Staley's injury and
Bill Cowher's tremendous success using a platoon
running-back system, Pittsburgh will be a RB by
committee. So expect reserves Verron Haynes and
Willie Parker to also get their reps. And with
all the sentimental moments destined to come up
with The Bus' final season, chances are he'll
get a few courtesy goal-line calls (read: stat
padding) somewhere down the line. Keep away from
Staley at all costs.
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SLEEPER:
J.J. Arrington, Arizona Cardinals
Rookie Arrington has a lot going
for him as he battles Marcel Shipp for the starting
RB job in Arizona. The California product was
hand picked by head coach Dennis Green in the
second round of the entry draft. Under Cal coach
Jeff Tedford, Arrington was the featured back
in a Golden Bears' offense similar to the one
being utilized by the Cardinals.
Arrington's senior season at Cal
was statistically superior to all of the RBs selected
ahead of him in the April draft. He ran for 2,018
yards and 15 touchdowns en route to being named
All-America and All-Pac 10 Conference. He decimated
the NCAA ranks with a blend of speed and vision
uncommon in a collegiate player.
Arrington is your prototypical
burner who hits gaps and holes at top speed; if
there is an opening, he will get through and pick
up yardage. Once past the line, he has the speed
to break off long runs. He attacks the line of
scrimmage, and runs with authority. He also shows
good hands out of the backfield, giving him value
as a third-down back. In all, Arrington's situation
in Arizona could allow him to be the biggest rookie
gainer at RB this season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
BUST: Mushin Muhammad,
Chicago Bears
Some notes to consider when drafting
a Chicago wideout:
Always be wary of a guy who puts
up career numbers in a free-agency year.
No. 1 wideouts tend to see a lot of double-team
coverage when their partners in receiving are
Bernard Berrian and Justin Gage.
The Bears have only had one 1,000-yard receiver
in the last five years.
WRs rarely flourish when Rex Grossman (three career
TD passes) is throwing them the ball.
Grossman is out for the year with a broken left
ankle.
WRs never flourish when Chad Hutchinson (career
QB rating: 69.1) is forced into starting action.
If one or two of these applied, the receiver would
be considered a major risk. Unfortunately for
Moose, all of them fit. Something else to think
about: including his huge 2004 season, Muhammad
has only averaged 913 yards and six TDs in the
last four years.
Consider yourself warned.
SLEEPER: T.J.
Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals
Most of the fantasy attention in
Cincinnati revolves around the Carson Palmer-to-Chad
Johnson combo, and rightly so. The two emerged
as one of the top young pass-catch combos in 2004,
with Johnson putting up his third straight 1,000-yard
season, and Palmer throwing for 18 TDs.
But dig a little deeper in Cincy,
and you'll also find one of the NFL's most promising
receiving tandems.
The Bengals have adhered to some
peculiar draft-day decisions the past few years.
Interestingly, one of their more successful strategies
is occasionally drafting a pair of positional
teammates from the same college program. This
year they drafted Georgia linebackers Odell Thurman
and David Pollack; in 2001, they took Oregon State
WRs Johnson and Houshmandzadeh.
A seventh-round pick, Houshmandzadeh
has gone from a special-teams burner to a legitimate
second receiver - bumping former first-round pick
Peter Warrick down the depth chart. Having played
together for the last eight years, Johnson and
Houshmandzadeh seem to bring out the best in one
another, a testament to the competitive spirit
that fuels their friendship.
The chemistry the duo brings to
the field was on display last season - just ask
Baltimore head coach Brian Billick. In Week 13,
the normally staunch Ravens defense watched Johnson
put up a 161-yard receiving performance with two
TDs... while Houshmandzadeh had a 171-yard day
with a score of his own.
T.J. followed up the Baltimore
game with an impressive 145-yard effort against
New England in Week 14, serving notice that the
guy with the longest last name in the NFL was
more than just a one-game wonder. With a talented
young QB and a lethal WR to work alongside, Houshmandzadeh
could have a breakout season similar to Nate Burleson
or Reggie Wayne.
TIGHT ENDS
SLEEPER: Dallas
Clark, Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis drafted Clark in 2003,
but the former Iowa Hawkeye has failed to become
an elite tight end in his first two years as a
pro.
A broken leg in his rookie campaign
held him to 10 appearances; last season, three
1,000-yard receivers and a battle at TE with Marcus
Pollard limited Clark's receptions. In 16 games
played, he pulled in a meager 25 catches. Considering
that those totals put Clark 27th amongst all tight
ends last season, proclaiming him to be a noteworthy
selection seems dicey.
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Big
Catch Clark: Dallas averaged
16.9 yards per reception last
season. But look beyond the numbers and
you will see Clark has a number of things
going for him. His tight-end competition,
Pollard, was waived as a salary-cap casualty.
Brandon Stokley, who caught 68 passes for
1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns a year ago,
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separated his shoulder in
training camp and has a history of injury, missing
42 games in his six-year career. With Pollard
gone and Stokley out, Clark will be counted on
to operate over the middle and in the slot - two
of Peyton Manning's favorite target areas. A 50-catch,
700-yard, six-TD season is within reach, assuming
Clark stays healthy.
BUST: Marcus Pollard,
Detroit Lions
After being cut loose by Indy,
Pollard was almost immediately picked up by Detroit
to fill their void at TE. A favorite target of
Peyton Manning's for the past eight years, many
assumed the route-running and pass-catching skills
Pollard displayed as a Colt would translate well
into the Detroit system. This is a claim to take
issue with.
There are just too many weapons
in the Lions' den for Pollard to be a consistent
threat. With talent like Roy Williams, Mike Williams
and Charles Rogers at WR, passes will be hard
to come by for a lumbering tight end. Head coach
Steve Mariucci will be utilizing stud sophomore
RB Kevin Jones as a full-time back, and neither
starting QB candidate (Joey Harrington or Jeff
Garcia) has shown much prowess in utilizing tight
ends.
In Mariucci's West Coast offense,
the TE is often used in short crossing routes,
something that Pollard did very little of in Indy.
Averaging more than 12 yards per catch for his
career, Pollard was far more adept falling in
behind the linebackers and surprising defenses
as a big-play receiver (thanks in large part to
Manning's accuracy). Don't expect much of the
same in Detroit. Pollard will probably entice
those who saw him flourish with Manning, but given
the depth at tight end throughout the NFL right
now, he's a lousy fantasy option.
BEST OF THE BEST
Michael Halford's top five
fantasy picks by position:
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
Daunte Culpepper, Minnesota Vikings
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
Trent Green, Kansas City Chiefs
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Running Backs
LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
Chargers
Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks
Willis McGahee, Buffalo Bills
Edgerrin James, Indianapolis Colts
Corey Dillon, New England Patriots
Wide Receivers
Randy Moss, Oakland Raiders
Terrell Owens, Philadelphia Eagles
Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts
Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams
Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Tight Ends
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs
Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons
Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants
Kickers
David Akers, Philadelphia Eagles
Mike Vanderjagt, Indianapolis Colts
Adam Vinatieri, New England Patriots
Jason Elam, Denver Broncos
Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis Rams
Team Defense
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons
New England Patriots
Is Priest Holmes done? Tell us
why or why not. Better yet, tell us your best
"Priest" fantasy story. During his unreal
run as end-zone stud, has he led you to victory
or killed your championship hopes?
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