WEEK 17 PICKS

Click here for latest NFL Odds

Please note the ongoing change to this column, as there are now six weekly picks. The four in this article, and one each in the “Reader Pick Of The Week” and the “Monday Night Football” columns. The results for all six will be posted here each week.

It is getting late in the season, but this column is starting to make a John Elway, 4th quarter style comeback. Week 16 selections were 4-2 overall, making the last two weeks 8-4 combined. The yearly mark is now 32-37.

The first win of the week was Washington giving 3 points to the NY Giants, and winning 35-20. Washington was coming off a 35-7 drubbing of Dallas, and the question was whether they could put together great back-to-back games. The answer was a resounding yes, and they did it even after losing quarterback, Mark Brunell early in the third quarter.

The second win of the week was Pittsburgh giving seven points at Cleveland, and winning 41-0. The Steelers needed this win to continue their playoff chase, while Cleveland was playing for nothing more than pride. This game was almost over before it started, as Pittsburgh jumped out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and never looked back.

The third win of the week was Seattle giving 7.5 points to Indianapolis, and winning 28-13. The Colts sat out a lot of their injured starters, and quarterback Peyton Manning only played two series. Seattle needed this game to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and the cover was never seriously in doubt.

The fourth win of the week was New England giving 6 points at the Jets on Monday Night Football, and winning 31-21. The score was 21-7 at halftime, and the Jets touchdown was a Ty Law interception return for a touchdown. New York scored a couple of meaningless touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and the game was not as close as the score indicates.

The first loss of the week was Tennessee getting 5.5 points at Miami, and losing 24-10. This game had no playoff implications, but the Titans still could not find a way to keep it close. Miami dominated the game on the ground with 172 yards from Ricky Williams, and Tennessee kept spoiling the few scoring opportunities they had.

The second loss of the week was Minnesota getting 3 points at Baltimore, and losing 30-23. Minnesota needed a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, while Baltimore was only motivated by playing at home on Sunday Night Football. Minnesota led 14-10 at halftime, and 20-17 after three quarters, but Baltimore dominated the 4th, and earned an impressive win.

Bet Now: Buffalo (-1) at NY Jets

Buffalo is 5-10 after pulling the shocker of the week, a 37-27 win at Cincinnati. Quarterback, Kelly Holcomb was 21-34 for 308 yards. Holcomb has started in four of the five games the Bills have won this year, with a 4-3 record overall. It kind of makes you wonder why J.P. Losman every got a sniff of the field this year.

Holcomb should have success throwing the ball against the Jets, even though New York is ranked 2nd in the NFL in pass defense. That statistic is deceiving however, as the Jets 28th ranked run defense means that teams do not have to throw the ball much. Buffalo running back, Willis McGahee has had kind of a down year, but he should gain at least 80 yards in this one.

New York is 3-12 after their 31-21 loss to New England. This game was so lopsided that the Jets did not have a first down in the first half, and only had 17 minutes of possession the entire game versus New England’s 43. The only thing good about the game was that it helped the Jets get closer to the top of the NFL draft.

In the New England game, quarterback Vinny Testaverde came in the 4th quarter to throw a touchdown. The pass gave him the record for throwing at least one touchdown in 19 consecutive seasons. Despite Testaverde’s career accomplishment, coach Herman Edwards has said that Bollinger will again get the start.

These are teams with two different motivations in this game. Bills General Manager, Tom Donahoe is certain to be fired, but Coach Mike Mularkey might stay on. A win here would help make the case for Mularkey keeping his job. The Jets really seem more interested in losing, and helping their draft position.

Pick: Buffalo

Bet Now: Miami (+5.5) at New England

New England is 10-5 after a 31-21 win at the Jets. That is a pretty good record overall, considering that they were ravished by injuries early in the season. The two time defending champs can get the 3rd seed in the AFC with a win over Miami, and a Cincinnati loss. The third seed likely means a Wild Card game at home against Pittsburgh, and a second round match-up at Denver.

A fourth seed means a Wild Card game at home against Jacksonville, and a second round match-up at Indianapolis. Given those scenarios, you can make the case that New England should want to lose this game, as Jacksonville is a better match-up than Pittsburgh. Also, the Pats might be better off playing the Colts in the divisional round, when Indy won’t have had a meaningful game in a month.

Miami is 8-7 after a 24-10 win over Tennessee. It was the Dolphins fifth win in a row, and one more will finish them at 9-7. That bodes well for the future of the franchise under Coach Nick Saban, who has had a successful transition to the professional ranks from LSU. There are a lot of teams in the NFL right now that are happy to not face the Dolphins in the playoffs.

Miami will attack New England with their running game, made easier by the fact that Tedy Bruschi will not suit up due to a leg injury. The Miami run defense should be able to contain Corey Dillon, and the goal will be to limit Tom Brady’s effectiveness. That is easier said than done, but Miami has had success versus Brady in the past.

New England would love to win this game to finish 11-5, and go into the playoffs on a six game winning streak. It is safe to assume that Coach Bill Belichick will keep his starters in for at least a half, and maybe through three quarters. Miami will be going hard for 60 minutes though, and they should have enough for the cover.

Pick: Miami

Bet Now: Houston (-1.5) at San Francisco

Houston is 2-13 after a 38-20 loss to Jacksonville. The game was close into the fourth quarter, but the Texans folded in the end as they have so many times this season. The loss means that Houston will get the number one pick in the draft with a loss in this game, and get the opportunity to draft USC superstar, Reggie Bush.

Houston has a problem at running back in this contest. Domanick Davis will probably miss his third game with a knee injury. Backup, Jonathan Wells, has a thigh contusion, but he is likely to play at less than 100%. If Davis and Wells are both out, rookie Vernand Morency will get his first career start.

San Francisco is 3-12 after beating St. Louis, 24-20. Their win almost ensures that they have no chance at the number one pick. Rookie quarterback, Alex Smith only threw for 131 yards, but he had by far his highest quarterback rating (98) of the year.

The 49ers may have a woeful record overall, but they have played decently at home. They have beaten Tampa Bay and St. Louis there, and lost by two and three points to Seattle and Dallas respectively. Before looking at the spread, I would have thought the 49ers would be slightly favored.

A few weeks ago, this game was dubbed the “Reggie Bush” Bowl, as the loser would get to pick him. Now, Houston is the team motivated to lose, even though their coaching staff will not allow themselves to think that way. The players on the other hand, might lack that little extra intensity that can be the difference between winning and losing.

Pick: San Francisco

Bet Now: Tennessee (+3.5) at Jacksonville

Tennessee is 4-11 and coming off a 24-10 loss at Miami. The Titans are 1-6 on the road this year, and the win was against 2-13 Houston. Coach, Jeff Fisher will never let his team play at less than 100%, but you have to question how much Tennessee has left in the tank after such a disappointing season.

On the injury front, quarterback Steve McNair has a strained pectoral muscle and will not practice until at least Thursday. Backup, Billy Volek has not played as well this year as last, a lot of it due to a substandard offensive line. The Jacksonville defense is very aggressive, and that will be the case this week even if some starters rest.

Jacksonville is 11-4 on the season and has locked in the number five seed in the AFC playoffs. You might question why Jacksonville would play any of their starters in this game. According to coach Jack Del Rio, it is because this is a divisional game and the Jaguars really want to get to 12 wins on the year.

That sounds like a lot of malarkey. However, quarterback Byron Leftwich has been cleared to play after missing four games with a broken bone in his ankle. He needs to get some reps with the first unit in order to get into sync for the playoffs.

The spread here is only 3.5 because no one knows how long Jacksonville is going to keep their starters in. Even if it is only for a half, Jacksonville has enough talent to cover the spread in front of the home crowd. Tennessee looks like a beaten team right now, especially on the road, which make the Jaguars the selection.

Pick: Jacksonville

More VIPSports.com "The Edge" Articles...