WEEK 15 FANTASY OBSERVATIONS

December 19, 2005 8:00 AM ET

Colt Loss
The Colts' loss really hurts fantasy owners, as it creates some serious problems about guessing playing time. The next two weeks mean little for Tony Dungy, beyond just keeping his team sharp. That means that Indy's starters may not see the field at all, or perhaps, for just two or three quarters. Will Dungy be straight with us and reveal his plan for playing time in advance? Dungy's history suggests that if he says something will happen, it will. He doesn't subscribe to the Shanahan-Haslett-Belichick school of chicanery, so I'd like to think that whatever he tells us mid-week will happen on Saturday.

Rod Comes Up Big
Old guys rarely get the respect they deserve from fantasy owners. Instead, we favor the young sexy guys on draft day. So, it's worth spending a moment to laud Rod Smith, a guy who was taken after Ashley Lelie in 90 percent of drafts. On Saturday, Smith was good for 11 catches, 137 yards, and a score. On the season, Smith has posted a solid six touchdowns, and just as importantly, he hasn't put up a clunker game since week five. Smith still has surprising speed and remains Jake Plummer's preferred target by a long shot. Runner up award goes to Jimmy Smith who is finishing this season nicely.

Atta Roy
How good is Roy Williams? Good enough to actually catch touchdowns from Jeff Garcia. That automatically makes him an elite receiver in my book. Williams has managed to score six times in the past six games despite injury, coaching turnover, and horrible quarterbacking. Assuming the Lions do something—anything—in the offseason to address the situation, Williams should be a top-10 receiver next year.

First-round Flabbergast
Although he was quiet on Sunday, in tight end-mandatory leagues, Antonio Gates has been a godsend. There's every other tight end, and then there's Gates. Although Jeremy Shockey has been solid, he's not on Gates' level. So, looking ahead to next year's fantasy drafts, is it so inconceivable that Gates is going to be a late first-round pick? Before you laugh at the notion of a first-round tight end, look back at the second half of last year's first round, and you're looking at a half-dozen first-round busts. Right now, Gates is easily one of the top-10 fantasy players, even in leagues where tight ends aren't mandatory. If you're in a tight end-mandatory league, Gates will offers a massive positional advantage over the rest of the league, making him worthy of a late first-round pick.

Keeper Kris
Keeper leaguers with Chris Chambers have a tough dilemma to consider. On one hand, he's emerging as one of the league's best receivers. Over the past four games, he's totaled an amazing 494 yards. On the other hand, he doesn't have a quarterback. Nick Saban will certainly address the quarterback position in the offseason. But does that mean that he'll be drafting a rookie who'll need two or three years to reach competency? Barring a trade, he won't be able to draft an NFL-ready quarterback like Matt Leinart. If not, will Saban be scouring offseason free agent dregs, trying to find someone who can step in? Jon Kitna, perhaps? If Saban can find a way to corral a half decent quarterback, Chambers has giant upside. If not, it's more of the same.

Nick of Time
With Stephen Davis' year finished (career too, probably), it's only a matter of time before Nick Goings sees some goal line love. He got plenty of carries last week, which suggests that he'll also find some yards for your team. Goings, as you may recall, finished with a flurry last year, scoring six times and topping 100-yards five times in the last seven games. The Panthers don't trust DeShaun Foster with tough, inside running. They'll call Goings' number in those situations, including at the stripe.

LouT
As reliable as LaDainian Tomlinson has been throughout his career, it's hard to stomach his disappearing act during this critical playoff stretch. Over the last three games, he's been held without a touchdown or 100-yard game, goose-egging most fantasy owners. Plus, he's exhibiting a susceptibility to injury for the first time in his career. Is this the beginning of the end of the Tomlinson era? Has Marty Schottenheimer overused him so much that he's already worn down? Probably not, but it's still a concern.

A Flat for the Caddy
Another week, another crap game from Cadillac Williams. Yeah, he had a nice game two weeks ago. But, I'd like to remind people that since week three Williams is averaging 3.4 yards per carry and has scored in just two games. There are people who are simply delusional about Williams' fantasy value. These peoples' reality got jammed back in week three. Williams has some talent, but he doesn't get much help from his line and Mike Alstott steals a lot of his touchdowns. Looking ahead to next year, much of his value will lie in the team's ability to add quality linemen and whether Alstott retires.

Quick Hitters
- Willis McGahee was out-rushed by Shaud Williams on Saturday. That tells me plenty.

- Does Dallas Clark's moustache have a thing for Jake Plummer's moustache?

- Remember all that preseason blather about how the refs were going to start calling penalties for horse collar penalties? Has anyone actually seen that penalty called? On Sunday, Clinton Portis was dragged down from the behind in a dictionary definition of a horse collar play, right in front of a ref. No call.

- I'll give Matt Millen credit for showing up in a hostile Ford Field. I also give the Lions' fans credit for not trying to solve the problem with gunplay.

- When Todd Bouman hit Joe Horn early in Sunday's game, some of us were encouraged that Bouman would finally get Horn involved in the offense. Horn didn't catch another pass.

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