WEEK 14 FANTASY PROJECTIONS

December 7, 2005 3:00 PM ET

Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis are up to their old late-season tricks again. But what should we make of a pair of career-defining performances from Chris Chambers and Ben Roethlisberger? As usual, we're here to sort it all out and separate the Trend from the Mirage.

Trend: The Resurgence of Rudi
It's quite possible Rudi Johnson is the most underappreciated running back in fantasy football. In each of the last two years, he's been essentially written off after some early-season troubles. Last year, a brutal late-season schedule had his fantasy owners abandoning ship midway through. He calmly ripped off eight touchdowns in the second half to finish with a 1,500-yard, 12-touchdown campaign.

This year, Carson Palmer and the Bengals' aerial attack overshadowed him in the early going. It got to the point, in fact, that some thought the explosive Chris Perry might begin to take over more of the workload in the Cincinnati backfield.

Then the bye week came, and the Bengals rededicated themselves to the run, and to Rudi. Not that Palmer, Chad Johnson, or T.J. Houshmandzadeh have necessarily slowed down, but Rudi has been a huge part of the Bengals' success in the last three games.

Cincy has put up a whopping 127 points in three games, with Rudi averaging 96 rushing yards per game and scoring six touchdowns. And that was against three tough defenses in the Colts, Ravens, and Steelers.

The upcoming schedule should keep Rudi scoring touchdowns by the pair. It's nearly a given that Johnson will destroy the Browns in week 14 – he averages almost 100 yards per game and has five touchdowns in his last five meetings with his Ohio rivals. The Lions (week 15) rank in the bottom third of the NFL against the run and have already given up on their season. And in week 16's Fantasy Bowl, Rudi gets the Bills, also known as the NFL's worst run defense.

Rudi! Rudi! Rudi!

Mirage: Dolphin Delight
Those who took a chance on Chris Chambers on draft day have absolutely nothing to complain about. Considering who he's been catching passes from, with 837 yards and six touchdowns through 12 games, you're playing with house money now. But will it continue?

Unlikely. Sure, Chambers is coming off of back-to-back 100-yard efforts (if you can label his 238-yard outburst last week as something so basic as a 100-yard effort) and has five touchdowns in his last seven games. Unfortunately, Chambers' Achilles' heel has always been consistency. In the last two years, had has scored touchdowns in back-to-back games just three times and he has just three 100-yard efforts in the last 17 games.

We're not saying Chambers won't have a couple of good games – the schedule is relatively favorable with the Chargers, Titans, and Patriots still on the docket – but we've learned through experience that Chambers is just as likely to disappear as he is to go on a prolonged stretch of solid play. In other words, he's due for a couple of four-catch, 50-yard stinkers any day now.

Furthermore, can you really have that much confidence in a guy who's catching passes from the schizophrenic Gus Frerotte or the inexperienced Sage Rosenfels?

After a knee injury cost him two games a month ago, Dom has registered three straight triple-digit yardage games and scored twice in three games. If you watched his performance last week against the once-proud Ravens (29 carries, 155 yards), you are aware of just how good the diminutive runner is.

Astute fantasy owners, however, are well aware of this fact, and those who grabbed Davis on draft day should continue to reap the benefits for the next couple of weeks.

First up is a matchup with the Titans, against whom Dom racked up 173 combo yards in week five. In his last two games against Tennessee, Davis has 354 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. It's also a good sign that the Titans have ceded an average of one touchdown per game in their last six and have surrendered four receiving touchdowns (which Davis has three of this season) to running backs this year.

Week 15 brings the Cardinals, who have allowed more rushing touchdowns (16) than all but the Texans themselves this season. The Jags in week 16 present a bit more of a problem, but last time Davis suited up against them (week 16 of last year), he went off for 189 yards and a touchdown.

Dom Capers may not be the brightest bulb on the tree, but we can only hope he's smart enough to continue getting Davis as many touches as possible down the stretch run. Assuming he does, it's going to be tough to face the Domanator in the fantasy playoffs.

Mirage: Ben There, Done That
Ben Roethlisberger had his best day as a pro in week 13, racking up 386 yards and three touchdowns, but don't expect him to be your fantasy savior in the fantasy playoffs.

The Steelers were clearly not playing Steelers' football against the high-flying Bengals. Roethlisberger's 41 pass attempts were 11 more than his career high, and only once before had he gone over the 300-yard mark.

While he clearly has the talent to put up such numbers on a regular basis, that is not the Steelers' M.O. In fact, Pittsburgh is just 2-3 in games Roethlisberger has attempted more than 25 passes this season, and 3-0 when he doesn't. In the Steelers' five wins under Big Ben this year, he's averaging 193 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. In the three starts he's lost, he averages 245 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions.

The common denominator, of course, is the running game. The Steelers are at their best when they're controlling the clock and pounding the ball with Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis. Count on Bill Cowher getting back to his hard-nosed ways as the Steelers cling desperately to their playoff hopes in the AFC. That, in turn, means Big Ben will get back to his caretaker ways rather than attempting to win games by himself.

Even if he doesn't, however, the schedule turns ugly over the next couple of weeks for Roethlisberger. Week 14 brings the Bears to town. The Monsters of the Midway lead the NFL in pass defense and have surrendered just one passing touchdown in the last eight weeks. Yes, you read that correctly. The game against the Vikings in week 15 is suddenly not even looking like a walkover, either. The Vikes' overall stats against the pass are ugly, but they've allowed an average of just one passing touchdown per game during their five-game winning streak.

Don't make the mistake of thinking Roethlisberger has suddenly turned into the next coming of Carson Palmer based on one big game. He's due to come crashing back to earth, and you don't want your fantasy team going with him.

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