WEEK 10 FANTASY REVIEW

Willis McGahee is a top five fantasy running back. Heath Miller has lost it. Tom Brady is going down with the sinking Patriots' ship. Roy Williams is so back. Wait, what? Trend and Mirage is back to debunk a handful of fantasy football myths.

WEEK 10 Fantasy Review Trend: Wilting Willis
We're no longer sure what Willis is talkin' 'bout. Three weeks ago, McGahee spouted off to the media about how he was the best running back in the NFL.

He's not. In fact, in our latest rankings, he's not even top five. McGahee, who's been held scoreless in the last three games and has averaged less than 3.5 yards per carry in three of the last five, has fallen all the way to No. 8.

McGahee started out fine. He was among the NFL yardage leaders and had four touchdowns after week six. Since his ill-advised comment, it's been all downhill, and it's not about to reverse course. In the Bills' next five games, McGahee will face the league's first (Chargers), second (Panthers), and fourth (Broncos) ranked run defenses. Worse, four of Buffalo's final seven games are on the road, where Willis is significantly less dangerous.

In a fantasy football landscape where runners like Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson are regularly notching two, three, or even four touchdowns per game, McGahee simply isn't getting many looks at the stripe, nor does he appear to have the explosiveness or open running lanes to rip off the long touchdowns common to the top fantasy backs. It's not all Willis' fault – the Bills' anemic passing offense allows defenses to routinely stack the line to stop him – but it's becoming clear we may have to chalk this year up to development and hope Willis can return to the elite next season.

WEEK 10 Fantasy Review Mirage: Miller Less Filling
Where the heck has Heath Miller gone?

Nowhere, but the man who routinely targeted him in the red zone has been in skivvies for the last two games. The rookie tight end scored six times in his first seven games, then up and vanished like a fart in the wind (to quote Warden Norton from The Shawshank Redemption) in the last two weeks.

Thanks in no small part to the fact the legendary Chaz Batch has been quarterbacking the Steelers, Miller has hauled in just two catches for 11 yards in the past two games. On Sunday night, he was targeted in the end zone late in the game, but the throw by Tommy "the Nightmare" Maddox (who came into the game in place of an injured Batch) was so far off target you couldn't even see the ball in the screen during the slow-motion replay.

Luckily, the injured Ben Roethlisberger is due back soon, if not for week 11's tilt with the Ravens. If he doesn't and Maddox is forced into action, you'll want to bench Miller immediately. However, once Big Ben returns, expect him and Miller to re-establish the rapport they built in the season's first two months.

WEEK 10 Fantasy Review Trend: Brady Blessed
It's a well-known fact that Tom Brady once had his right arm blessed by the Pope. This year, it's a good thing, because the Patriots are going only as far as Brady's ordained appendage will take them.

Injuries have decimated the Patriots on both side of the ball this season, and both their defensive deficiencies and their struggling ground game figures to keep Brady dropping back to Hail Mary on a regular basis.

Opposing offenses are invading the Patriots' end zone like the Christian Crusaders invading the Middle East in Medieval times. Forced to keep up on the scoreboard, Brady is leading the NFL in passing yards and has 10 touchdowns in his last five games. Impressively, he's done his damage while sporting a divine passer rating of 113 or better in three of the aforementioned five tilts.

Even worse for the Pats (and better for Brady's fantasy owners), the running game is in shambles. An injury-depleted offensive line is playing with two rookies and currently features only two starters who played a significant role in last year's Super Bowl run. Adding injury to insult, both of the Patriots' top two runners (Corey Dillon and Patrick Pass) have missed all or parts of the last three games with various maladies.

The lack of a ground game and the inability of the defense to prevent the opposition from scoring means Brady is going to have to continue to air it out to keep up on the scoreboard. Even last year, when New England was routinely pounding the ball to protect leads in the second half, Tom threw nine touchdown passes in the final four games of the season. Expect similar production from here out for the World's Greatest Human Being.

WEEK 10 Fantasy Review - Mirage: Roy to the Rescue
Roy Williams is back! Tell all your friends and family! Drop everything and get him back into your fantasy lineup! The sky is falling! Wolf! Wolf!

A familiar refrain after week 10's brilliant 117-yard, three-touchdown performance, to be sure, but don't believe the hype.

First, allow us to remind you that the Lions' starting quarterback has not undergone a sudden metamorphosis into a viable fantasy player. Last we checked, Roy will still be catching passes from either Jeff Garcia or Joey Harrington the rest of the way. Garcia, who may retain his starting job once he returns from injury even though Harrington had arguably his best game as a pro last week, has zero touchdown passes in two starts this year. Before his outburst last week, Harrington had five touchdown passes in six starts. Last year, he managed a whopping 19 in 16 starts.

Williams himself isn't exactly a beacon of consistency, either. After scoring four touchdowns in his first three NFL games last season, Roy had reached paydirt just four more times in 22 games before last week's hat trick. Worse, he's proven to be injury-prone, missing six games and being hampered in countless others by nagging injuries over the last two seasons.

If you're on the outside of the playoffs looking in, you may still want to take a chance on Williams' tremendously remarkable positive anti-downside in case he suddenly reaches his potential and notches a few more multiple touchdown efforts. But if you're sitting pretty, feel free to sit back and laugh as the other owners in your league clamor for Roy's services based on his one good game in over a year.

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