RUNNING BACK BY COMMITTEE

October 27, 2005 5:00 AM ET

Chiefs Running Backs By Committee ---- It's not at all uncommon for fantasy owners to handcuff their top running back or backs, stashing his backup on their roster in the event of injury. A prime example of that this year was the need for Priest Holmes owners to make sure they had Larry Johnson as well.

But then a funny thing happened: L.J. outperformed Priest in the season opener, and suddenly the question was raised about starting both backs on the same fantasy squad.

It's a strategy embraced by some and eschewed by others—but if you had used a Holmes/Johnson tandem during each of the duo's six active weeks, you'd have netted about 16 fantasy points per game (using a pretty standard 6 points per touchdown and 1 point per 25 rushing/receiving yards).

Granted, 10 of that comes from the Holmes side of the equation, and if you didn't have the foresight to open the season with an all-Chiefs backfield you would have missed out on 16 of Johnson's 36 points.

And then there's this sniggling little detail: in three games against run defenses ranked in the top half of the NFL, LJ has a total of three points, as opposed to 33 in three tilts against run defenses ranking in the bottom half of the league.

Priest's totals are somewhat skewed as well, as he's tallied 40 points against the three bottom-feeders, but he's also posted a respectable 21 points in three tilts against the upper division.

Applying this logic, you can't start Johnson this week against the Chargers, but you could safely use both your KC backs for the next month against Oakland (18th against the run), Buffalo (31st), Houston (32nd), and New England (25th). Then it's two toughies against the Broncos and Cowboys, another breather against the Giants, and a rematch with the Chargers and their second-ranked run defense before a week 17 date with the 27th-ranked Bengals.

Steelers Running Back By Committee ---- But why start there? Could a similar approach be applied to backfield committees where there wasn't necessarily a clear-cut hierarchy, like there is in Kansas City? The two most viable candidates at the moment are the Steelers Willie Parker-Jerome Bettis combo and the Broncos' one-two punch of Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. Let's throw them under the microscope.

Last year in Pittsburgh, the role definition was clear: Bettis was the scorer, and Staley was the yardage guy. Using the scoring system outlined above, 30 of the 36 fantasy points Duce recorded came by virtue of yardage; Bettis, on the other hand, netted just six yardage points in games where both he and Staley were available. Of course, Jerome also scored nine touchdowns in those eight games and enjoyed a full month with Staley out where the Bus rolled up 18 yardage points and three touchdowns, making him the vastly more valuable fantasy back.

The Steelers' plan entering 2005 was similar; however, they didn't count on both Bettis and Staley getting hurt in training camp. Nor did they expect Willie Parker to be this good, this fast. They've had Bettis and Parker available for three games, and in those three games each back has one good fantasy outing and two mutts.

Moreover, those quality fantasy starts did not come in the same game, meaning if you started both Bettis and Parker, you were essentially leaving one lineup spot vacant.

There is, however, some good news. Last week the Steelers planned their work and worked their plan almost exactly as they had hoped, to the point that they didn't need to throw a single pass in the fourth quarter against Cincy. Both Parker (18) and Bettis (13) received double-digit carries, as did fullback Verron Haynes (11). Clearly, the Steelers won't be afraid to pull the flaps down and pile-drive opponents into submission once they get a lead.

Here's the problem, though: six of the Steelers' remaining 10 dates are against run defenses in the top half of the league, so you can't apply the Chiefs' theory with any regularity to a Bettis/Parker backfield. It might make sense in two remaining dates with the Browns, the Bengals rematch, and a week-15 tilt against the Vikings, but you'd just be shooting yourself in the foot if you were hoping for double the pleasure starting both your Steelers against the Ravens (twice), Packers, Colts, Bears, or Lions.

At present, Parker is the better fantasy play in performance and combo formats. You'd have to think Bettis is the way to go in basic leagues, but last week when the Steelers got close they threw short scoring strikes to Heath Miller and Hines Ward. Only start the Bus in touchdown-only leagues, and even then he may not be your best option.

Broncos Running Back By Committee ---- The Broncos' committee has been in effect since the beginning of October, the first time both Bell and Anderson received double-digit carries in the same game; Anderson had 23 for 115 yards, Bell chipped in 60 yards on 15 carries. The following week, Anderson was far less productive with his 11 carries (34) yards than Bell was with his 12 (127 yards and two touchdowns), and that trend continued against the Patriots: Anderson had 15 for 57 and a score, Bell had 13 for 114 and a touch.

Last week, Anderson was effective (120 yards and a score on 24 carries) and thus received three times the workload Bell did. Bell, by the way, averaged 7.5 yards per carry on his eight totes.

Where's the rhythm here? Anderson went off against one of the two top-10 run defenses the Broncos have seen, posting 20 for 98 and a score on the Chiefs, but he's been a 50-50 proposition against average or worse defenses. Bell has been productive against each of the past four opponents; how big a workload he gets seems to hinge on how effective Anderson is.

Ah, but there's also this caveat: both of Bell's big games have come in Denver, while Anderson's triple-digit affairs have taken place on the road. Is Bell faster in the thin air? Does Anderson wear down more quickly? Mike did have a decent outing at home against the Chiefs. Does Shanahan have to have a reason?

If you're buying into the home-road thing, three of the Broncos next five are away from Mile High. Of course, two of those road tilts are against top-10 run defenses, and five of Denver's last nine games pit them against run defenses ranked 11th or better.

If this is starting to sound like Vizzini in The Princess Bride ("a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me…"), well, now you know why we call them Shenanahannigans.

What's a fantasy owner to do? Anderson is technically the starter, and he's received more carries in five of the last six games, an average of seven carries more than Bell. But they're separated by roughly three yards per game and have the same number of touchdowns, so production is similar.

Unless you've got a portal to Mike Shanahan's brain or an accurate ouija board, your best bet is to apply a baseball analogy. With Anderson, you're looking to simply get on base; it's the conservative approach that is going to keep you from getting shut out but might not give you the home run Bell does. Using Bell is like swinging from the heels; you may miss, but there's also a chance you're going to connect and hit one out of the park.

Starting both certainly increases your chances of getting that run across; a Bell-Anderson backfield would have yielded a 100-yard rusher in each of the last four games and six touchdowns in the last five outings. Until the Broncos hit a stretch next month that has them facing the seventh-, eighth- and ninth-ranked run defenses in consecutive weeks, starting both Bell and Anderson is indeed a viable option.

Unless Mike Shanahan decides to start giving Ron Dayne carries…

 

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