PREDICTING FANTASY LINEUP DECISIONS

As the bye weeks come to an end and the fantasy playoffs approach, it's more important than ever to make intelligent lineup decisions. One must always look at head-to-head matchups each week, but don't forget about the often-overlooked home/road splits of your important fantasy players. While you're not going to sit down one of your studs for any reason (at least you shouldn't), taking a look at the splits for your second or third running back or wide receiver and adjusting your lineup accordingly could be the difference between making the playoffs and standing out in the cold in weeks 14, 15, and beyond.

In the first of a two-part series, we'll take a glance at the players who enjoy the calming influences of home. The following players prefer spending quiet nights at home with their families or significant others. They prefer enchanting Saturday evenings with candlelight dinners followed by a chick flick or animated feature with their wife, girlfriend, and/or kids to boys' night out on the town, partying with their teammates at bars or, uh, gentlemen's clubs in strange cities like Atlanta or New York. Or something like that. Whatever the case, they're the Home Boys, and they play much better in the friendly confines of their home stadiums than they do in hostile enemy venues.

Quarterbacks
Donovan McNabb, Eagles
Monday Night's debacle notwithstanding, McNabb plays much better at Lincoln Financial Field than he does elsewhere. This season, he's averaging 291 passing yards with eight touchdowns in four home dates, compared to 270 per game and eight scores in five roadies. Over the last three years, Chunky has five more touchdown passes at home in two less games than he does on the road. If Donovan can stay healthy, he could reward fantasy owners with a three-game homestand starting in week 12.
Remaining home games: Week 12 vs.GB, Week 13 vs. SEA, Week 14 vs. NYG, Week 17 vs. WAS

Jake Plummer, Broncos
The poster child for the Home Boys, Plummer has always played better in his place of residence, regardless of where that might be (Phoenix or Denver). This season, the split hasn't been as pronounced (his Abe Lincoln at home against the Eagles in week eight representing his only huge fantasy game of the season), but in 2004 the Snake threw 17 of his 27 touchdowns at home, and for his career he averages 227 yards and 1.4 scores in front of the friendly fans, compared to 202 and one in hostile habitats. Unfortunately, Jake is spending most of his time handing off these days, and the Broncos have just three remaining home dates.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. NYJ, Week 14 vs. BAL, Week 16 vs. OAK

Drew Brees, Chargers
Brees is vying for Plummer's place as president of the Home Boys. So far this season, Drew averages two touchdowns per home game and has just six scores in five away games. In 2004, Drew matched Jake's 17 home scores (also throwing for just 10 on the road), although the difference in his home/road yardage splits are negligible. In his short career, he has 10 more touchdowns in the cozy confines of San Diego despite playing in two more road tilts. Drew has four remaining home games, with the Bills in week 11 representing the only top 10 pass defense on the docket.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. BUF, Week 13 vs. OAK, Week 14 vs. MIA, Week 17 vs. DEN

Eli Manning, Giants
You'd never think it based on the disaster at home against the Vikes in week 10, but Eli is much more comfortable in Giants Stadium than he is in opposing venues. Going back to week 15 of 2004, Eli has 15 touchdowns in his last seven home games, compared to just five in five roadies over that same span. The Giants welcome the Chiefs, who sport one of the league's worst pass defenses, to New York in week 15 in a game that could have serious fantasy implications.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. PHI, Week 13 vs. DAL, Week 15 vs. KC

Running Backs
Tiki Barber, Giants
Barber hasn't usually discriminated against road foes, but this year is something different. Tiki is torching opposing defenses in New York – to the tune of 158 all purpose yards and five touchdowns in five games – while laying down on the road (82 yards, two scores in four games). Basically, the Giants offense just operates that much better as a whole at home, where Eli is comfortable. Look for the trend to continue against the Eagles in week 11: Philly is allowing nearly 170 rushing yards per game on the road, worst in the NFL.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. PHI, Week 13 vs. DAL, Week 15 vs. KC

Willis McGahee, Bills
McGahee loves the home cookin'. Although he's scored seven of his 17 career touchdowns on the road, he averages nearly 30 less yards per game away from Orchard Park. A whopping eight of his 11 career 100-yard games have come at home, and his five worst career starts (and the only five in which he has run for less than 60 yards as a starter) have all been on the road. Sadly, even McGahee's home efforts don't look too promising in the season's second half. He'll do fine against the Patriots in week 14, but the Panthers and Broncos both rank in the top four in the NFL against the run. Ugh.
Remaining home games: Week 12 vs. CAR, Week 14 vs. NE, Week 15 vs. DEN

LaMont Jordan, Raiders
In his first year as a starter, LaMont has shown a true aversion to long plane rides, lumpy hotel mattresses, and buffet lines. In five home dates, LaMont averages 78 rushing yards per game and has scored seven touchdowns. Away from the freaks in the Black Hole, Jordan averages just 62 yards per and has yet to score a rushing touchdown, though he does have two receiving scores. Unfortunately for Jordan owners, the Raiders are on the road in four of their next six games.
Remaining home games: Week 12 vs. MIA, Week 15 vs. CLE, Week 17 vs. NYG

Clinton Portis, Redskins
Portis enjoys the end zones at RFK Stadium, but hasn't had much of a taste of them anywhere else. Over the last two seasons, Clinton has 10 rushing touchdowns. Eight of those have come at home. He also averages about 95 rushing yards per home game in that same span, a figure that drops about 20 yards away from the Capitol. Luckily, the Redskins will contest four of their next six games under the watchful eyes of Dubya at home in D.C.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. OAK, Week 12 vs. SD, Week 15 vs. DAL, Week 16 vs. NYG

Thomas Jones, Bears
After playing better on the road throughout 2004, Jones has shown a particular fondness for the Windy City this time around. Thomas has gone over 100 yards in all but one of his four home starts this season and has five touchdowns to show for those efforts as well. On the road: Zero triple-digit performances and just one touchdown. Although Jones owners will be happy to know that four of his next six games will be contested in Soldier Field, be aware that two of them are against the stingy Panthers (No. 1-ranked run defense in the NFL) and Buccaneers (No. 5).
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. CAR, Week 12 vs. ATL, Week 14 vs.TB, Week 16 vs. DAL

Stephen Davis, Panthers
You'd think a one-yard touchdown is a one-yard touchdown no matter where it's scored. In Davis' case, you'd be wrong. In five home games, Davis has nine touchdowns and even averages a respectable 66 rushing yards per game. In four games outside of Carolina, Stephen averages just under 40 yards per game and has scored only three times. The Falcons offer a juicy matchup in week 13 at home, but both the Buccaneers (week 14) and Cowboys (week 16) offer top-10 run defenses.
Remaining home games: Week 13 vs. ATL, Week 14 vs. TB, Week 16 vs. DAL

Kevin Jones, Lions
Not that there's been much of anything happening for Jones this year, but he's been slightly less horrible in the Motor City than he has elsewhere. In five Ford Field games, Jones has trucked for an average of 63 yards per game and scored three touchdowns. In four roadies, K.J. is at just 37 yards per game and has one measly touchdown. There were signs of life for Jones in week 10, and he could capitalize with three home games in the next five weeks – the next two coming against two of the weakest run defenses in the NFL (Falcons, Vikings)
Remaining home games: Week 12 vs. ATL, Week 13 vs. MIN, Week 15 vs. CIN

 

Wide Receivers
Plaxico Burress, Giants
Surprise! Burress completes the Giants' trifecta of Home Boys. Plax (pronounced PLEX, thank you) has averaged 91 yards per home game and four of his five touchdowns have come at Giants Stadium. For his career, Burress has 17 home scores in 41 games, compared to just 10 in 38 visits behind enemy lines. The week 15 matchup with the lenient Chiefs' pass defense looms as a possible difference-maker in your fantasy playoffs.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. PHI, Week 13 vs. DAL, Week 15 vs. KC

Terry Glenn, Cowboys
While Keyshawn Johnson hogs the ball on the road, it's Glenn who does the damage at home for the Cowboys. His touchdown on Monday Night in Philly was his first road score of the season, while he averages over 100 yards per game with three scores in four home dates. Oddly, throughout his career Glenn has been better away from home, with 21 of his 35 career touchdowns coming on the road. Still, this year's numbers don't lie, and Glenn's owners should enjoy four home dates in the Cowboys' seven remaining games.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. DET, Week 12 vs. DEN, Week 14 vs. KC, Week 17 vs. STL

Kevin Curtis, Rams
Curtis has been a nice surprise this year, but he's done most of his scoring at home. Oddly, Curtis has more receptions but less yards on the road (59 yards per game, compared to 73 at home). Essentially, all of Curtis' big plays have come in St. Louis – including three of his four touchdowns. Kevin should be able to hit some home runs in four home games the rest of the way, even with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce back in the lineup.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. ARI, Week 13 vs. WAS, Week 15 vs. PHI, Week 16 vs. SF

Keenan McCardell, Chargers
Not surprisingly, given Drew Brees' performance at home, his No. 1 receiver has also shone brightest in San Diego. This year, Keenan averages 70 yards per home game and has scored four of his six touchdowns at home, compared to just 38 per game and two scores on the road. Given that McCardell has just one touchdown in his last five games, he may not be fantasy start material anyways, but when the Chargers go on the road in weeks 12, 15, and 16, you shouldn't need any more excuses to bench him.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. BUF, Week 13 vs. OAK, Week 14 vs. MIA, Week 17 vs. DEN

Roy Williams, Lions
The fact that three of his four 2005 touchdowns came last week at home obviously shouldn't make Williams a Home Boy, but he followed the same trend in his rookie season. In 10 career home games, Roy has nine touchdowns and averages 66 receiving yards per game. In nine games as the visitor, Williams has just three scores and averages 46 yards per game. Williams is a hot commodity right now, and he could pay dividends with home dates against the Falcons, Vikings, and Bengals still on the schedule (emphasis on could).
Remaining home games: Week 12 vs. ATL, Week 13 vs. MIN, Week 15 vs. CIN

Tight Ends
Antonio Gates, Chargers
You're never going to bench the No. 1 tight end (and one of the best receivers overall) in fantasy football, but be advised that 15 of his 21 career scores have come at home. In fact, Gates averages exactly one score per home game in his carer, and has just six scores in 19 career roadies.
Remaining home games: Week 11 vs. BUF, Week 13 vs. OAK, Week 14 vs. MIA, Week 17 vs. DEN

Dallas Clark, Colts
There's not a whole lot of statistical data to work with when it comes to Clark, but in his three years in the league he's proven much more productive in the RCA Dome than he has elsewhere. Six of Dallas' eight touchdowns have come at home early in his career.
Remaining home games: Week 12 vs. PIT, Week 13 vs. TEN, Week 15 vs. SD, Week 17 vs. ARI

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