LINEUP ADVICE WEEK 13

November 30, 2005 3:00 AM ET

Jamal Lewis finally looked like the back who rushed for 2,000 yards a couple years ago, Ron Dayne is the next great Bronco back, and Steven Jackson is (quietly) enjoying Marc Bulger's absence. One of these things is not like the others, and we'll tell you which in the latest installment of Trend and Mirage.

Trend: Jamal's Prison Break
Those of you who have been waiting to see the Jamal Lewis who once crammed more than 2,000 yards of rushing into a single season, your wait ended last weekend. Lewis posted his first 100-yard effort of the season in the loss to Cincinnati, but more importantly he actually looked like the Jamal of old—punishing linebackers, dragging tacklers, and bursting through holes like a man on a mission.

Even better, if you've held Jamal this long: we have every reason to believe we'll continue to see this Jamal over the next month.

For starters, the potential job-share with Chester Taylor went by the boards when Taylor came up lame and was deactivated last week. Baltimore's other backs are also banged up, meaning the Ravens have little choice but to give Jamal 25 carries a game.

Lewis is also playing for cash, as he becomes an unrestricted free agent following the season. He's already indicated his frustration with the Ravens for not honoring a promise they made to him about extending his contract if he pled guilty to federal drug charges and got his jail time served in the offseason. And now he's taking his frustrations out on opponents—not to mention ringing the cash register with every tote.

Here's the best part: aside from a week-14 date with the NFL's top run defense in Denver, the Ravens have nothing but run-stopping patsies remaining on the schedule. Aside from the Broncos, the best run defense on the board is the Vikings, who allow 113 yards per game on the ground; the others are the Texans (158 yards per game), the Packers (121), and the Browns (128).

Yes, finally, Jamal is back and running angry. Here's hoping his first three months didn't make you so angry you kicked him to the curb.

Mirage: All Marcus Robinson Does is Catch Touchdowns
Robinson hit the natural hat trick in the Vikings' win on Sunday: three catches, three touchdowns. Is he the next Cris Carter?

Um, no.

The Vikings have been full of aberrations this season—like the game in which they became the first team in NFL history to return a kickoff, punt, and interception for touchdowns in the same game—and this is just another one of those flukes.

And it's flukey on several levels. Robinson is averaging barely two catches per game and was shut out completely in the week prior to his trifecta. He'd also gone three weeks without scoring before last Sunday—and that wasn't even his longest drought of the year.

Moreover, Vikings quarterback Brad Johnson is averaging one touchdown pass per game, and he'd been shut out in the two games prior to last week.

There are also too many cooks in the Minnesota receiving kitchen. Koren Robinson is battling for playing time, and the Vikes would also like to get a contribution from seventh-overall pick Troy Williamson.

Here's hoping you were able to capture lightning in a bottle and had Robinson in your fantasy lineup last week. But don't expect that same lightning to strike again any time soon.

Trend: Giving Jackson Action
Rams quarterback Mark Bulger has missed three games this season. Rams running back Steven Jackson has topped 20 carries three times this season.

And here's the real coincidence: the aforementioned sets of games are identical.

In other words, if Bulger isn't at the helm, the Rams turn the game over to their second-year back. There's plenty of logic in that plan; in fact, the lack of logic comes when you wonder why the Rams don't give Jackson 20 carries regardless of who's quarterbacking.

The nice thing (for those with Jackson, at least) is that Bulger isn't expected back any time soon. Because in those three games in which he's received the most work, Jackson has produced four touchdowns and averaged 128 rushing yards per game.

Rookie Ryan Fitzpatrick looked fine in his NFL debut last week, but there's little question the Rams will ride Jackson rather than put too much pressure on the rookie. And given how he's produced when handed such a work load—five games with 20 or more carries, four 100-yard efforts and one that fell just three yards shy—those banking on a big finish from Jackson have no reason to pull for a speedy Bulger recovery.

 

Mirage: Great Dayne
Admit it: high on tryptophan and gravy and desperate for backfield help, you tried to pick up Ron Dayne this week on the heels of his 98-yard outburst on Thanksgiving Day.

Shame on you.

There are myriad reasons to write off Dayne's day as a complete and utter fluke. He got carries only because Tatum Bell wasn't able to bounce back from his chest injury during such a short week, and then because Mike Anderson put the ball on the ground. More than half of his production came on one overtime run in which he was caught from behind. And we aren't even mentioning the whole "Broncos system" thing, or names like Olandis Gary or Quentin Griffin.

This really feels like telling you the sky is blue or don't put your toaster in the bathtub… but if we're able to save even one fantasy team from deluding themselves into thinking Dayne can help their fantasy squad down the stretch, then our work here is done.

More Fantasy Articles...