JAGUARS VS PATRIOTS PLAYOFF PREVIEW

January 5, 2006 4:00 AM ET

Saturday, January 7, 2006, 8:00 p.m. ET
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) at New England Patriots (10-6)

The two-time defending World Champions stumbled a bit in their drive for a third consecutive Lombardi Trophy, but by virtue of their winning the worst division in football (the AFC East sported a .389 winning percentage against the rest of the league) they'll host a Jaguars squad convinced they don't get the respect they deserve.

But don't think Bill Bellichick isn't aware that the last time the Patriots lost in the postseason it was to the Jaguars in 1998—the only blemish on Bellichick's playoff resume. And despite Jacksonville toiling in the shadows of the near-perfect Colts, don't think the Pats won't be ready with their A-game as they look to extend their nine-game postseason streak.

When the Jaguars have the ball: Over the first half of the season the Jags struggled to put points on the board, extending their string of games without topping 30 to an NFL-record-tying 58 before snapping the string against Baltimore. After that, the points came in bunches as Jacksonville scored 30 or more four times in the final two months, including 38- and 40-point outbursts to close the regular season.

However, the bulk of that scoring came against lesser defensive teams. The return of Richard Seymour to the middle of the Patriots' defense has restored much of the luster to the reigning champs, and the Jags will certainly have their work cut out for them.

Head coach Jack Del Rio has indicated he'll start Byron Leftwich at quarterback even though Leftwich hasn't played in a game since breaking a bone in his ankle on November 27. David Garrard has filled in admirably, posting remarkably Leftwich-like numbers while adding the element of mobility, and it's entirely possible Del Rio is trying to bluff the Patriots into prepping for the wrong signal-caller.

Assuming Leftwich gets the nod and he doesn't display much rust from his five-week layoff, the Jaguars will likely attack the Pats through the air. While Jacksonville has had success running the football, much of that success has come at the hands of vastly inferior run defense—among them the Titans, Texans, Niners, Browns, and Cardinals. Moreover, the Pats had allowed 125 rushing yards combined in the four games leading up to the relatively meaningless season finale against Miami in which they employed healthy doses of reserves. Between Larry Johnson's relatively subdued 119 and one in week 12 and Ricky Williams' 108 and one in week 17, no opposing back rushed for a touchdown or as much as 30 yards against the Patriots.

When Jacksonville dos try to run, they'll employ a rested Fred Taylor, though Greg Jones has returned to practice after suffering a jammed neck a couple weeks back and should also factor into the mix. It's difficult to see the Jaguars' collective approach to running the football bearing much fruit against New England; in fact, if Garrard gets the start he's your best bet for a rushing touchdown and will likely lead the team in rushing yardage as well.

So the burden of putting up points will likely fall on Leftwich and the passing game. Lord Byron was settling into a rhythm prior to his injury, throwing five touchdowns (against zero interceptions) and averaging 230 yards per game in the three tilts prior to busting his ankle. He was unquestionably helped by the development of targets in addition to Jimmy Smith, most notably Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford. Both are large receivers capable of going up for a lob in the end zone, a tact Leftwich frequently employed.

Garrard most certainly favored Smith, but as he too settled into a rhythm was able to incorporate Wilford and to some extent Jones and Reggie Williams into the mix as well. Either quarterback would generate north of 200 passing yards; if it's Leftwich, we like him to approach 250 and spread the ball to Wilford and Jones a bit more than Garrard might. Don't expect any one receiver to top 75 yards, and despite Smith's presence as the go-to guy it may very well be Jones or Wilford on the business end of a red-zone fade.

Only time will tell if Del Rio actually starts Leftwich over Garrard, and if that was the right call; it's entirely possible both quarterbacks will see work in this game, which kind of sums up the Jaguars' overall offensive approach. While Jacksonville does have some elite-level talent, their preferred method is getting contributions from everyone on their roster en route to a relatively boring victory. It's worked a dozen times already this year, so why change now?

As for whatever role the weather may play in slowing a team from Florida, don't sweat it. The Jags have won their last two games in sub-freezing temperatures and aren't afraid of the cold because, as tight end Kyle Brady put it, they're from North Florida.

When the Patriots have the ball:There's no question Tom Brady is a great quarterback who's had to shoulder more than his share of the burden this season, but before we bypass Canton and put him on the express bus to sainthood, let's put things in perspective. His league-leading 4,110 passing yards is directly attributable to the absence of Corey Dillon from his backfield for significant chunks of the season, he's thrown eight interceptions to go along with his nine touchdowns over the past six games, and while it may appear he's carrying the team on his shoulders since a 4-4 start he's benefited greatly from both a rejuvenated defense and the fact that the Pats have seen just one playoff team (the Buccaneers) since the first week of November.

That said, how can you argue with a perfect 9-0 playoff record and three rings in four years? The simple answer is, you can't. So despite the Jags sporting a pretty good pass defense—they ranked first in the league for the first part of the season but have allowed multiple touchdown tosses in six of their last seven games—Brady and the Patriots should be able to move the ball in the air. Obviously, Brady is the focal point of the passing game, and good luck determining who'll be doing the catching. You'd like to think Deion Branch, who has posted triple-digit receiving yardage in each of his past two playoff games and led the club in all receiving categories this year, would be the guy. But what about David Givens, who is working on an NFL-record streak of five straight playoff games with a touchdown catch? Or what about the 10—yes, 10—other Patriots who have caught touchdown passes this season, including linebacker Mike Vrabel and tackle Tom Ashworth? Clearly the Jags won't be able to focus on shutting down a specific receiver, so they'll have to find another way to keep Brady in check.

As the Patriots near the stripe, Corey Dillon becomes a bigger part of their game plan. Maybe because of his injuries—Dillon has carried the ball in just 11 games this season—Dillon has averaged fewer than 20 carries and less than 70 yards per game this year. However, he's still a force at the goal line, with five multiple touchdown games, a score in each of his last four, and a career-best 13 touchdowns overall. The Jaguars haven't allowed a running back touchdown since week 11, but aside from Edgerrin James (who accounted for 154 yards from scrimmage against them) they haven't faced any backs of consequence in that span. As such, another 80-yard, two-touchdown type of game from Dillon wouldn't surprise.

And if it comes down to a field goal, the Patriots have one of the best clutch kickers of our generation in Adam Vinatieri, who has missed just one kick since Halloween. Or they could always have Doug Flutie drop-kick.

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