FANTASY KEEPER LEAGUE TIPS

December 6, 2005 3:00 PM ET

Heading into the season, most keeper league owners had a pretty good idea of which players they intended to retain for 2006 and beyond. However, a number of the players that were earmarked for keeper status have not lived up to expectations. With that in mind, we will examine some of the players who surprisingly find themselves on the bubble in leagues that allow owners to retain multiple players.

Quarterbacks
Daunte Culpepper, Vikings
Few fantasy experts predicted at the beginning of the season that the second-best quarterback in 2004 would be a bubble player heading into 2006. However, the veteran signal caller threw six touchdowns and a dozen interceptions in seven games this season. Worse yet, he suffered a season-ending knee injury that is threatening to keep him out of action for a significant portion of next season. Our expectation is that unless Culpepper makes a miraculous recovery that enables him to play in week one, most keeper league owners will toss him on the scrap heap. Given how poorly he played and the serious nature of the injury, it will be hard to argue with owners who take that approach.

Brett Favre, Packers
Some keeper league owners will rule out Favre next season simply because of his age. Others will look back on this season and cite the fact that Brett led the league in interceptions as a sure sign of his diminished skills. Heck, there's even a chance that the old gun slinger will surprise us by hanging up the cleats at season's end. If he does play, we wouldn't give up on Favre so easily. Winning a keeper league next season is no more or less important than winning one in the future, so don't let Favre's age factor too heavily in your decision. Brett played the majority of the season without his top wide receiver Javon Walker and behind an offensive line that's in transition after losing both starting guards during the offseason. If Walker returns to pre-injury form, the Packers make some key offensive line upgrades, and take steps that will help them establish a running game, Favre might have another 30-touchdown season left in his bag of tricks.

Donovan McNabb, Eagles
It's not the injury that scares us, it's the absence of Terrell Owens. We all know that McNabb tossed 31 touchdowns in 2004 when he and Owens were on the same page. Now that T.O. is headed out of Philly, there's always a chance he could revert to putting up pre-Owens numbers. In 2003, McNabb passed for 3,216 yards and 16 touchdowns, which aren't exactly impressive numbers. However, in 2002 he put up 2,289 yards and 17 scores in just 10 games. Our advice is to hold out as long as possible before making a decision on Donovan. The Eagles have salary cap space to work with and won't be afraid to use it to acquire a quality wideout or two to help McNabb. Sit back and wait to see how the offseason unfolds before making a move.

Marc Bulger, Rams
It will surprise some fantasy owners to learn that Bulger ranks right behind Joe Montana on the list of all-time passer ratings. The former 49ers great compiled a 92.26 passer rating, while Bulger has a 94.4 rating in his short career. That being said, the Rams are expected to make a coaching change at the end of the season. We can almost guarantee that the next head coach will not be as pass-happy as Mike Martz has been throughout his run with the team. We're also trying to determine whether Isaac Bruce has gas left in the tank. If not, can Kevin Curtis can step in and fill his shoes on a full-time basis? Working against Bulger's cause is that he's missed six games (and counting) over the last three seasons with various injuries. Helping his cause is that Torry Holt, arguably the most consistent wideout in the league in recent years, will be back for another season in St. Louis. It's a tough call, but we'd stick with Bulger for another season.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
We've been waiting for two years for Hasselbeck's success in the month of December to carry over to the remainder of the season. Unfortunately, the presence of Shaun Alexander and the absence of injured wide receiver Darrell Jackson have spoiled yet another season for Hasselbeck, who has just 15 touchdown passes through 12 games. Alexander will be a free agent at the end of the season, so there is a chance that Hasselbeck will pass more next season. However, if Alexander stays in Seattle, we won't consider Hass a top keeper candidate. At this point, Matt is arguably a backup quarterback depending on the scoring format your league uses.

Running Backs
Priest Holmes, Chiefs
Like everyone else, we're waiting to find out whether Holmes will return from his latest injury. He's confessed to flirting with the idea of retiring in the past, so there's no guarantee he'll return next season even if doctors give him a clean bill of healthy. Even if Priest returns, Larry Johnson will still take a significant number of carries. Once this season ends, Holmes will have missed 15 games in his last two seasons. If you play in a salary cap league and spent top dollar to sign Holmes earlier this year, your best bet is to cut him in hopes of reacquiring him at a cheaper rate.

Jamal Lewis, Ravens
No! It's really that simple. The jailbird will be a free agent at the end of the season. If he leaves, he'll certainly hook up with a better quarterback than Kyle Boller, which might prevent teams from stacking eight men in the box. Even so, Lewis has played like a washed up, unmotivated running back this season. A change of scenery could do him some good, but we are unwilling to invest a sizeable chunk of salary cap to keep him on our rosters.

Deuce McAllister, Saints
The Saints tweaked their offense prior to the season with the intent of making McAllister their featured player. Why they ever shifted the offense away from Deuce to begin with is something only head coach Jim Haslett could explain. The obvious question regarding McAllister is whether he will bounce back to previous form following ACL surgery. Edgerrin James and Jamal Lewis both returned to action a season after they underwent similar procedures. Although they managed to play, neither back returned to their previous form until the second season after surgery. Given the depth at this position, keeper league owners should be able to find a safer back than McAllister.

Clinton Portis, Redskins
The knock on Portis is that he's an inconsistent scorer. Although he's already scored seven rushing touchdowns this season, three came in one game. In fact, he's been held scoreless in eight-of-12 games already this year. On the other hand, he scored all seven touchdowns in his last seven games. Portis has already topped the 1,000-yard mark for a fourth consecutive season and still has a shot at reaching the double-digit touchdown milestone in 2005. Portis has finally settled in with the Redskins' offense and clearly warrants a spot on keeper rosters.

Chris Brown, Titans
After missing five games last season and portions of several other games, Chris Brown nearly fell off the fantasy radar this past summer. However, he has bounced back with 1,002 combo yards and seven scores in 12 games this year. Some fantasy owners will still be frightened away by Brown's past injury issues. Yet if he finishes the season without missing a game, Chrissy would have to be considered a keeper candidate based on the impressive numbers he's produced for a lousy Titans squad. In fact, he'll probably be a bargain pick in most keeper leagues because most owners will pass him over in favor of players who are considered more durable.

Wide Receivers
Randy Moss, Raiders
Based on his long track record of success, most keeper league owners won't hesitate to retain Moss' services next season. The other side of the argument is that he has 45 receptions for 771 yards and just five scores this season – numbers hardly worthy of a keeper league player. Of course, the key excuse is that he has been playing injured for most of the season. In other words, he's been a highly paid decoy throughout most of his first season in Oaktown. Given that credible excuse and the fact that Moss has scored 10 or more touchdowns in six of his eight seasons, keeper league owners would be wise to assume that this season is an anomaly.

Terrell Owens, Eagles
We suppose most fantasy owners will wait to find out where Owens lands next season before committing to him. Let us remind you that T.O. topped the 1,000-yard mark and scored at least nine touchdowns in five of eight seasons with the lowly 49ers. Okay, so they weren't exactly a lowly team throughout most of his stay in the Bay Area. Then again, he was arguably the biggest reason the team was successful. How has Garcia looked since he and Owens parted ways? How about former 49ers head coach Steve Mariucci? Given his track record of success, we expect Owens to land on his feet and put up big numbers wherever plays next season.

 

Javon Walker, Packers
The simple fact that Javon Walker fired agent Drew Rosenhaus makes us want to put him on the keeper list. Unfortunately, Walker is in the same boat as McAllister in that it could take a full season following ACL surgery for him to return to his previous form. Most unnerving is the possibility that Favre could retire at season's end. We might be willing to take a chance of Javon's surgically repaired knee, but there's no way we'd retain him at his previous salary if Favre walks away.

Reggie Wayne, Colts
Peyton Manning's other wide receiver has been a mild disappointment this season. Wayne should come close to matching the 1,210 receiving yards he gained in 2004, but his five touchdowns are a far cry from the dozen end zone visits he made last year. He is currently ranked 10th in receiving yards, but 17 receivers have scored more often than Reggie. However, the mere possibility that Manning could revert to his pass-heavy ways next season makes Wayne worthy of keeper status. Keep in mind that Marvin Harrison isn't getting any younger and that Edgerrin James could be playing elsewhere next season. Both of those factors could lead to Wayne assuming a bigger role in Indy's offense.

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