2005 BODOG FANTASY INFO

October 12, 2005 4:00 AM ET

This week's Trend and Mirage takes a glance at a passer who's playing way over his head, a pass-catcher who's playing way under his, and a couple of running backs whose prospects could be headed South.

Trend: Brunell not Brutal
It is simply painful to admit, but Mark Brunell may not be all that bad. At least not for the next three weeks. Brunell's 322-yard week five outburst is slightly less impressive when you consider he needed 53 pass attempts to get there, but the fact he has thrown for two touchdowns in each of the last three games is impossible to ignore. Brunell hasn't had such a streak since 1998.

That the 35-year-old Brunell clearly has tunnel vision for just one receiver – Santana Moss – is a bit disconcerting, but we see Mark continuing his success against a trio of mediocre pass defenses over the next three weeks. The Redskins next three opponents happen to rank dead last, second-to-dead last, and third-to-dead last in the NFL in passing defense. That's right, the Chiefs are allowing 273 passing yards per game, the Giants have ceded a whopping 322 yards per tilt, and the kings of ineptitude, the 49ers, have allowed a ridiculous 344 yards per game and lead the NFL in passing scores allowed, with 12.

Don't get us wrong, we're not implying Brunell is a great fantasy quarterback for the duration of the year. Far from it, but for the next three weeks, when owners of signal-callers like Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, Jake Delhomme, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Matt Hasselbeck will all face bye week issues, he could be a more-than-adequate fill-in.

Mirage: Invisible Evans
You may remember Evans from such breakout rookie seasons as 2004, when the speedster did his best Chris Chambers imitation with nearly 850 yards and nine touchdowns. His 2005 has started off in similar fashion to his freshman campaign, only now he's been limited by his quarterback instead of by his own inexperience.

Much like last season, Evans hasn't done squat in the season's first five weeks. In fact, Evans did virtually nothing until week 12 last year. The replacement of J.P. Losman at quarterback with Kelly Holcomb should inject some fantasy value back into the dangerous Bills' deep threat.

Holcomb has the ability to put up solid stats. He's proved that more than once in the past three years as a backup and part-time starter for the Browns. And he can't possibly be all that much worse than Drew Bledsoe was a year ago. In game one of the Holcomb Era in Buffalo, Evans took the sixth play of the game for 49 yards before being pushed out at the one-yard line. That is the type of explosive play Evans thrived on last season, and that is the type of play we should see much more of as Holcomb becomes more comfortable in this offense.

 

Trend: Rudi Reeling
It's tough to call Rudi Johnson a disappointment. He is the NFL's fifth-leading rusher in terms of yardage and has a healthy 4.2 yards per carry average, but his one touchdown and his lone 100-yard effort are now a distant week one memory. Johnson hasn't helped fantasy owners much in four weeks, and, unfortunately, things don't look like they're about to change.

While Carson Palmer is going wild and his pass-catchers are crossing the stripe with regularity, Rudi is becoming the forgotten man. While Palmer has 10 touchdown passes from beyond the 12-yard line, Rudi has received less than 20 touches in his last two and hasn't crossed the stripe since the season opener. Because of all the big plays, Rudi has exactly one carry inside the 10-yard line since week one.

Wait, there's more. In the next seven weeks, the Bengals schedule turns brutal. They face the Steelers twice, the Ravens twice, and the Colts, in addition to their week 10 bye. You've probably heard this before. Last season, Rudi faced a brutal second half schedule and thrived with 771 yards and eight touchdowns in the final eight games. However, 250 of those yards and five of those touchdowns came in the final three weeks, when Palmer was out with a knee injury. Carson Palmer's big play passing offense is simply too effective to allow Rudi to repeat last season's 12-touchdown outburst.

Mirage: 100-yard Brown
Ronnie Brown looks to be finally pulling his weight. After two sub-par efforts in his first two career starts, Brown has erupted for 227 yards over the last two games, including his first career touchdown. With the impending return of Ricky Williams, it's tough to see the 100-yard efforts continuing.

Unfortunately, we don't know exactly how coach Nick Saban will use Williams. What we do know is that he will, in fact, use Ricky in some way, shape, or form. Talk out of Miami early this week has Brown and Williams on the field at the same time, either in the same backfield or with one split out in the slot or even out wide. In both scenarios, Brown would get the short end of the stick. He'd play more of a fullback role in a dual backfield, and since he's the better pass-catcher, he'd be the one to split wide if that opportunity were to arise. Obviously, that leaves Ricky to take the handoffs the bulk of the time when both backs are in the lineup.

Brown is even saying all the right things, playing the company line that whatever is best for the team is best for him. We'd much rather see the dude stand up for himself and demand the majority of the carries, but that hasn't happened so far. We aren't likely to know much about Ricky's role until he has a game or two under his belt, but anything that takes touches away from Brown can't be a good thing, so it's tough to envision him continuing to gobble up yardage by the century. Play fantasy football today - Check out www.bodogfantasy.com.