Friday January 7th, 2005 - Page updated at 1:30pm
By:
C. McDermott
NFL
Handicapper For WagerOnFootball.com Sportsbook Review
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Wild Card Playoff Previews - (5)
St. Louis (8-8) at (4) Seattle (9-7)
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Previews)- Revenge will be on the collective
minds of the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday afternoon, when
Mike Holmgren's team plays host to the St. Louis Rams
in an NFC Divisional Playoff.
The Seahawks wrapped up the NFC West title last week,
edging the Falcons, 28-26, to claim the franchise's first
outright division crown since 1988. But Seattle topped
the division despite being swept by the Rams, who stunned
the home team in a 33-27 come-from-behind overtime thriller
on Oct. 10, then added to the misery with a 23-12 handling
of the Hawks on Nov. 14. Knocking St. Louis out of the
postseason would help erase the remnants of those setbacks
for Seattle, and would also give the Seahawks their first
playoff win since 1984, when they downed the Raiders in
an AFC Wild Card game.
The Rams, meanwhile, will be looking for the three-game
sweep of Seattle while trying to extend their current
winning streak to three games. Mike Martz and company
were 6-8 and seemingly on the playoff ropes entering Week
16, when they defeated the Eagles (20-7), who helped the
Rams prevail by playing their starters sparingly. Last
week, St. Louis placed itself in the field of 12 by taking
down the Jets, 32-29, in overtime. The Rams will be vying
for their first postseason victory since 2001, when they
reached the Super Bowl before falling to the Patriots.
SERIES HISTORY
The Rams lead the all-time series with Seattle, 9-4,
and swept the home-and- home series between the division
rivals this season. St. Louis was a 33-27 overtime winner
in Seattle during Week 5, and completed the sweep with
a 23-12 home triumph in Week 10. The Seahawks' most recent
win in the series came in 2003 at home, when they edged
the Rams, 24-23.
This will mark the first-ever playoff meeting between
the franchises.
Martz is 5-2 in his career against Seattle, and has the
same record in his head-to-head series with Seattle's
Holmgren. The Seahawks' skipper is 7-6 against the Rams
all-time, including a 5-1 mark while with Green Bay (1992-98).
RAMS OFFENSE VS. SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
St. Louis is likely to do most of its offensive traveling
via the air, as the team finished the regular season ranked
fifth in NFL passing offense (265.8 yards per game). Quarterback
Marc Bulger (3964 passing yards, 21 TD, 14 INT) comes
off a season-high 450-yard passing effort in last week's
win over the Jets, as he spread the ball liberally to
wideouts Torry Holt (7 receptions, 116 yards, 2 TD in
the game), Isaac Bruce (5 receptions, 86 yards, 1 TD)
and Kevin Curtis (6 receptions, 99 yards). Holt (94 receptions,
10 TD on the year) was held to seven catches for 85 yards
and no touchdowns in his two games against Seattle this
year. Bruce (89 receptions, 6 TD) fared better, totaling
13 grabs for 182 yards in the victories. In the Week 5
win, Bulger threw TD passes to Curtis (32 receptions,
2 TD), fellow wideout Shaun McDonald (37 receptions, 3
TD) and tight end Brandon Manumaleuna (15 receptions,
1 TD), but also threw three interceptions. The Rams allowed
50 sacks on the year, which was tied for 27th in the league,
though the Seahawks dropped Bulger a total of just three
times.
Bulger will have to avoid the big mistake against a playmaking
Seattle secondary that was responsible for 21 picks during
the regular season. Cornerback Ken Lucas (70 tackles)
had a team-high six interceptions on the year, and two
of those came off of Bulger in Week 5. Fellow CB Marcus
Trufant (96 tackles, 5 INT) registered one in the same
game, and also notched a pick off of Atlanta's Matt Schaub
last Sunday. Despite their big-play ability, the Seahawks
ranked just 23rd in the league in passing defense (224.4
yards per game), and have given up nearly as many big
plays as they have accounted for. Some of the problem
rests with a pass rush that managed just 36 sacks on the
year, a figure that was tied for 21st in the league. The
team will likely be without end Grant Wistrom (knee),
meaning more pressure will be on leading sack man Chike
Okeafor (53 tackles, 8.5 sacks). Okeafor had two sacks
of Bulger in Week 5.
The Rams have had their struggles running the football
this season, and finished the regular season tied for
25th in the league in rushing offense (101.5 yards per
game). But that luck of production was not evident in
St. Louis' Week 10 win over the Seahawks, when Marshall
Faulk (774 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 4 TD) rushed
for a season-high 139 yards on 18 carries. Backup Steven
Jackson (673 yards, 4 TD) added 47 yards and a touchdown
on 10 totes in that game. Last week, Martz's team managed
just 47 ground yards, including 29 on 10 carries for Jackson.
The running game should be more effective if guard Tom
Nutten (knee), who is doubtful with a knee sprain, is
able to suit up.
Seattle ranked just 23rd in the league in rushing defense
(126.9 yards per game) during the regular season, with
a banged-up linebacking corps bearing most of the responsibility
for that trend. The Falcons piled up 204 ground yards
against the Seahawks last week, and LBs Chad Brown (37
tackles), Isaiah Kacyvenski (89 tackles) and Niko Koutovides
(62 tackles) will have to do a better job against Faulk
and Jackson. Okeafor was the line's leading tackler in
2004, and the club will require a consistent effort from
both he and tackles Cedric Woodard (49 tackles), Rashad
Moore (46 tackles) and Rocky Bernard (39 tackles) in the
run-stopping game. Bernard led that group with six tackles
against Atlanta last Sunday.
SEAHAWKS OFFENSE VS. RAMS DEFENSE
The sting of failing to win the NFL rushing crown will
likely be lessened this week for Seattle running back
Shaun Alexander (1696 rushing yards, 23 receptions, 20
TD), who has given the Rams fits this season. Alexander
rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown against St. Louis
in Week 5, then bolted 22 times for 176 yards against
the team five weeks later. Alexander did cough up a costly
fumble in the latter game, however. The All-Pro was limited
to 80 yards on 19 carries against Atlanta last Sunday,
though he did chip in with his 20th touchdown of the year.
Fullback Mack Strong (131 yards, 21 receptions) and third-down
back Maurice Morris (126 yards, 21 receptions) have received
frequent touches out of the backfield this season. The
Hawks ranked eighth in the league in rushing offense (130.9
yards per game) in 2004.
St. Louis' defensive Achilles heel has rested with an
inability to stop the run, as the team was fourth from
the bottom in NFL rushing defense (136.2 yards per game)
during the regular season. The Jets piled up 180 ground
yards on the Rams last week, including 153 from league
rushing champion Curtis Martin. The linebacking corps
of Robert Thomas (56 tackles) in the middle, Pisa Tinoisamoa
(95 tackles, 1.5 sacks) on the weak side, and Tommy Polley
(78 tackles) on the strong side has been a disappointment
all year. The line has stopped the run sporadically, with
end Leonard Little (46 tackles) and tackle Ryan Pickett
(45 tackles) ranking as the most productive members of
that unit.
Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (3382 passing yards,
22 TD, 15 INT) has hit his stride of late, and was named
NFC Offensive Player of the Month for his efforts during
the club's recent run. Hasselbeck completed 72 percent
of his passes and threw for 10 touchdowns versus four
interceptions in his final four regular season games.
Darrell Jackson (87 receptions, 7 TD) has been the team's
No. 1 target this year, but he was held to three catches
for 18 yards against the Falcons last Sunday. Jackson
had five grabs for 91 yards and a score against St. Louis
in Week 5. The status of Koren Robinson (31 receptions,
2 TD), who was suspended for last week's game after missing
a team walkthrough, is in doubt for Saturday. Veteran
Jerry Rice (30 receptions, 3 TD) should see a wealth of
time either way. Hasselbeck put up modest numbers in two
outings against the Rams this year (35-71, 388 yards,
2 TD, 1 INT), but was sacked a total of once in the contests.
Seattle ranked 13th in NFL passing offense (221.2 yards
per game) during the regular season, and was 12th in sacks
allowed (34).
Though the Rams' secondary has not been regarded as a
big-play unit, the team finished 2004 ranked a respectable
11th in the league against the pass (198.4 yards per game).
Cornerback Jerametrius Butler (79 tackles, 5 INT) has
all but one of the club's interceptions on the year, with
fellow CB Travis Fisher (34 tackles, 1 INT) posting the
other. Butler intercepted Hasselbeck once in the Week
10 win St. Louis finished the regular season with the
unusual distinction of having no picks from its linebackers
or safeties, though strong safety Adam Archuleta (88 tackles,
2 sacks) was among the team leaders in stops. The Rams
have struggled to bring a consistent pass rush, though
they managed six sacks against the Jets last Sunday. End
Bryce Fisher (48 tackles, 8.5 sacks) added two to boost
his team-leading total, and fellow DE Little (7 sacks)
had one as well. Little had the Rams' only sack of Hasselbeck
in Week 5, and the team did not drop him in their Week
10 triumph.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rams signed punter Kevin Stemke (39.8 avg.) to replace
veteran Sean Landeta prior to Week 12, and the team has
seen a slight improvement in its net punting average since
that time. Jeff Wilkins (19-24 FG, 32-32 XP) remains one
of the league's most reliable kickers, and is 5-5 against
the Seahawks this season. St. Louis has had scant production
from its return game, as punt returner Shaun McDonald
(4.8 avg.) and kickoff returner Aveion Cason (22.1 avg.)
have both been weak. Cason is filling in for Arlen Harris
(20.2 avg.), who remains doubtful with a hamstring strain.
The Rams gave up one touchdown each on a punt and kickoff
return during the regular season.
Seattle has used four different punters this season,
with veteran Ken Walter (38.3 avg.) handling the duties
of late. Walter has a net of just 33 yards on 24 punts.
Kicker Josh Brown (23-25 FG, 40-40 XP) has fared better,
and is 7-8 on kicks of 40 yards or better. Brown is 6-7
against the Rams this year. Punt returner Bobby Engram
(11.8 avg.) is explosive, but kickoff return man Maurice
Morris (21.1 avg.) has failed to break a big one. Seattle
has not allowed a kickoff or punt return for a score during
the campaign.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Despite going 0-2 against the Rams during the regular
season, Seattle remains the stronger of the two clubs
on paper. Alexander gives the Seahawks a consistent force
in the running game, and he should find plenty of rushing
room against the Rams' thin front seven. Hasselbeck should
also thrive against a St. Louis defense that doesn't provide
much of a pass rush and doesn't make a wealth of big plays
in the secondary. Seattle has its own defensive struggles,
particularly against the run, but can be counted on to
turn in a couple of giant plays against the pass. The
Seahawks, who will be gunning for their first postseason
win in 20 years, also figure to have an emotional edge,
particularly in front of a friendly crowd.
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Wild
Card Playoff Previews - (5) N.Y. Jets (10-6) at (4) San
Diego (12-4)
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San Diego will be abuzz on Saturday evening, as the hometown
Chargers will face the New York Jets in the franchise's
first home playoff game in a decade. The Chargers last
played at home in the postseason following the 1994 season,
when they downed the Miami Dolphins, 22-21, in an AFC
Divisional Playoff. The Bolts were AFC Champions that
season, but have not won a postseason game since. In fact,
the franchise has not played beyond the regular season
since 1995. Marty Schottenheimer's team won its 12th game
of the year last week, defeating the Chiefs, 24-17.
San Diego will be playing host to a Jets team that is
making a return to the playoffs following a one-year hiatus.
Herman Edwards' club reached the postseason despite losing
three of their final four games, including a 32-29 overtime
setback to the Rams last Sunday.
Saturday evening's encounter will be a rematch of a Week
2 battle at Qualcomm Stadium, won by the Jets, 34-28.
SERIES HISTORY
San Diego holds a 17-11-1 lead in the all-time series
with the Jets, but has lost the two most recent head-to-head
meetings, both at home. The Chargers were 34-28 losers
in Week 2, and also dropped a 44-13 decision in 2002.
The Chargers' last win over New York took place in 1994,
and their most recent home victory in the series occurred
in 1990.
This will mark the first meeting between the teams in
the postseason.
Charger coach Marty Schottenheimer is 2-6 against the
Jets all-time, including a 1-3 mark as head coach of the
Cleveland Browns, and a 1-1 record while with the Kansas
City Chiefs. The most memorable matchup between Schottenheimer
and the Jets came in a 1986 AFC Divisional Playoff, which
the Browns won, 23-20 in overtime. The Jets' Herman Edwards
is 2-0 against both Schottenheimer and San Diego all-time.
JETS OFFENSE VS. CHARGERS DEFENSE
The Jets attack begins with running back Curtis Martin
(1697 yards, 41 receptions, 14 TD), who last week became
the oldest player in NFL history to win the league rushing
crown. The 31-year-old Martin rumbled for 153 yards on
28 carries, overtaking Seattle's Shaun Alexander for the
NFL lead. Martin rushed 32 times for 119 yards and two
scores in New York's Week 2 win over San Diego. Backup
LaMont Jordan (479 rushing yards, 2 TD) has provided an
effective change-of-pace in the rushing game, and averaged
5.2 yards per rush during the regular season. Jordan carried
only once against the Chargers in September, but has seen
his role enhanced greatly since. Fullback Jerald Sowell
has 45 catches out of the backfield, which is tied for
second on the team. Edwards' squad ranked third in NFL
rushing offense (149.2 yards per game) on the year, behind
only Atlanta and Pittsburgh.
Their first effort against Martin and the Jets not withstanding,
San Diego's defensive strength in 2004 has been against
the run. The unit ranked third in NFL rushing defense
(81.7 yards per game) during the season, with inside linebackers
Donnie Edwards (150 tackles, 5 INT) and Randall Godfrey
(84 tackles) thriving in the team's 3-4 scheme. Godfrey
and Edwards were set up for success by a productive defensive
line, one that has been paced by nose tackle Jamal Williams
(32 tackles, 4 sacks) and rookie end Igor Olshansky (39
tackles). Godfrey and Williams were held out against the
Chiefs for precautionary reasons, and Edwards had six
tackles in limited time. Outside linebacker Ben Leber
(60 tackles) led the way with nine stops in the game.
The pressure on Saturday will rest squarely upon the
shoulders of Jets quarterback Chad Pennington (2673 passing
yards, 16 TD, 9 INT), who has endured a rotator cuff injury,
inconsistency, and run-ins with both the hometown media
and his own offensive line this season. The Marshall product
will look to rekindle the magic that was on display in
a Week 2 win over the Chargers, when he completed 22 of
29 passes for 258 yards and a pair of touchdowns with
no interceptions or sacks. Pennington will look for wideouts
Justin McCareins (56 receptions, 4 TD) and Santana Moss
(45 receptions, 8 TD) to get open, after the duo combined
for just 90 receiving yards in last week's loss to St.
Louis. Moss has two 100-yard games to his credit this
year, and caught four balls for 97 yards against San Diego
in Week 2. The status of veteran Wayne Chrebet (31 receptions,
1 TD) is uncertain for Saturday, after the receiver sustained
a concussion in the St. Louis loss. Pennington was sacked
a season-high six times last week, and the New York line
has now given up a modest 31 on the year.
The Chargers ranked next-to-last in NFL passing defense
(253.3 yards per game) during the regular season, a statistic
that was a by-product of both deficiencies in the secondary
and with the pass rush. Cornerbacks Quentin Jammer (62
tackles, 1 INT) and Drayton Florence (36 tackles, 4 INT)
will have to prove they can handle Moss and McCareins,
and safeties Terrence Kiel (97 tackles, 2 INT) and Jerry
Wilson (74 tackles, 3 INT) will be counted on for support.
Florence and Kiel both had interceptions against Kansas
City, and the Chargers rank among league leaders with
23 picks on the year. The San Diego pass rush accounted
for just 29 sacks all year, which was tied for the third-
worst figure in the NFL. Outside linebacker Steve Foley
(64 tackles) had 10 of those sacks, and no other Charger
posted more than four.
CHARGERS OFFENSE VS. JETS DEFENSE
The key to San Diego's offensive success will be running
back LaDainian Tomlinson (1335 rushing yards, 53 receptions,
18 TD), who figures to be healthy and well-rested after
sitting out last week's regular season finale against
the Chiefs. Tomlinson has six 100-yard games to his credit
this year, but was held to 87 yards on 19 carries by the
Jets in Week 2. Tomlinson had 76 receiving yards in that
loss. Backup Jesse Chatman (392 yards, 3 TD) has played
well in relief of Tomlinson this year, and was also inactive
in Week 17. The Chargers rank sixth in the league in rushing
offense (136.6 yards per game).
The Jets have been mostly effective against the run this
year, and were fifth in NFL rushing defense (97.9 yards
per game) during the regular season. The run-stopping
unit shut down the Rams last week, allowing Marshall Faulk
and Steven Jackson to combine for just 44 ground yards.
Linebackers Jonathan Vilma (107 tackles, 3 INT) and Eric
Barton (107 tackles), who are tied for the team lead in
stops, were a major factor in that effort. Defensive tackles
Jason Ferguson (58 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and Dewayne Robertson
(52 tackles, 3 sack) have been consistent at the point
of attack all year. Robertson tallied five tackles and
a forced fumble against the Bolts in Week 2.
San Diego quarterback Drew Brees (3159 passing yards,
27 TD, 7 INT) will enter Sunday's game looking to erase
the remnants of his worst outing of 2004, which came against
the Jets on Sept. 19. Brees completed just eight of 19
passes for 146 yards in that game, throwing a touchdown
and two interceptions before being benched in favor of
Doug Flutie. Since that time, Brees has fashioned a Pro
Bowl season, and this week won the NFL's Comeback Player
of the Year award. The signal-caller was held out of last
Sunday's win over the Chiefs, as were tight end Antonio
Gates (81 receptions, 13 TD) and starting wideouts Eric
Parker (47 receptions, 4 TD) and Keenan McCardell (31
receptions, 1 TD). Gates and Parker combined for just
six catches and 58 yards against New York in Week 2. McCardell,
who arrived in San Diego from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline,
was not yet with the Chargers for that contest. The Chargers
are 16th in the league in passing offense (210.4 yards
per game), and are fourth in the NFL with just 20 sacks
allowed.
The New York secondary comes off its shakiest outing
of the year, as St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger rung
up 450 passing yards in last week's win. Cornerbacks Donnie
Abraham (53 tackles, 2 INT) and David Barrett (77 tackles,
2 INT) will be glad to see receivers other than Torry
Holt and Isaac Bruce, but safeties Jon McGraw (39 tackles,
2 INT) and Erik Coleman (100 tackles, 4 INT) could have
their hands full with Gates. Both McGraw and Coleman collected
interceptions off of Brees in Week 2, and Coleman notched
another pick last Sunday. Of some concern to Jets faithful
is the status of end John Abraham (48 tackles, 9.5 sacks),
who has missed the last four games with a knee injury
and is listed as questionable for Saturday. In Abraham's
absence, DE Shaun Ellis (57 tackles, 11 sacks) has taken
over the team lead in sacks, recording three against Bulger
last week. The Jets ranked 14th in NFL passing defense
(207 yards per game) during the regular season, and were
tied for 17th in the league in sacks (37).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Jets punter Toby Gowin (38.2 avg.) has played to decidedly
mixed reviews this season, and his net of 33.5 is hardly
a thing of beauty. Kicker Doug Brien (24-29 FG, 33-34
XP) has been better, but missed on a would-be 53-yard
game- winner in overtime against the Rams. Brien was 2-2
in San Diego during Week 2. Rookie kickoff returner Jerricho
Cotchery (27.8 avg., 1 TD) gave the team a huge spark
with a 94-yard touchdown return last week. Justin McCareins
(6.3 avg.) has been handling punt returns of late, with
modest results. The Jets gave up an 87-yard kickoff return
for a score to Tim Dwight back in September, which remains
the only return for a TD the team has allowed this year.
An underrated factor in the Chargers' magical run is
the outstanding play of its special teams. Punter Mike
Scifres (43.1 avg.) and kicker Nate Kaeding (20-25 FG,
54-55 XP) have both been effective, and punt returner
Eric Parker (8.8 avg.) and Dwight (24.4 avg., 1 TD) have
both had their moments as well. If Dwight (hamstring),
who is listed as questionable, is unable to go this week,
kickoff return duties will likely be handled by rookie
Robb Butler. San Diego gave up a pair of kickoff returns
for scores during the regular season.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Chargers will have a great deal of things working
in their favor this week, not the least of which will
be an electric home atmosphere. The San Diego defense
has the ability to limit Martin's effectiveness, and Pennington
has not shown much confidence in throwing the deep ball
of late, which should benefit the up-and-down Charger
secondary. On the other side of the ball, Tomlinson might
not run wild, but Brees and his fleet of receivers should
be able to make some gains against a Jet secondary that
showed its many holes against the Rams. All signs point
to a San Diego triumph, and don't be surprised if it comes
by a decisive margin.
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Wild
Card Playoff Previews - (6) Denver (10-6) at (3) Indianapolis
(12-4)
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A sense of deja vu will be in the air during Sunday's
AFC Wild Card contest, as the Indianapolis Colts and Denver
Broncos square off for the second time in as many weeks.
The Broncos were 33-14 winners over the Colts in last
Sunday's regular season matchup at Invesco Field at Mile
High, but for this week's postseason tilt, the scene shifts
to the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. This also marks the second
straight year that the Colts are playing host to the Broncos
in an AFC Wild Card contest, as Indy was a 41-10 winner
under similar circumstances last season.
Denver's Week 17 win over Indianapolis might as well
have had an asterisk attached. While the Broncos needed
the victory to earn the AFC's final spot in the postseason
field, the Colts had already been locked into the No.
3 position, and thus rested a great number of their regulars.
Quarterback Peyton Manning played one series and threw
two passes, while running back Edgerrin James carried
just once in the defeat. Still, the loss snapped an eight-game
winning streak for Tony Dungy's crew.
Although last week's victory can hardly be considered
a landmark for the Broncos, Mike Shanahan and company
are hoping to continue the momentum that carried them
into the playoffs for the second straight season. Denver
appeared to be a playoff long-shot after a 3-5 stretch
dropped the team to 8-6 following Week 15, but consecutive
wins over the Titans and Colts, coupled with some help
elsewhere in the AFC, helped the Broncos reach the 12-team
field. Denver will be attempting to notch its first playoff
win since quarterback John Elway guided the club to victory
in Super Bowl XXXIII.
SERIES HISTORY
Denver holds an 11-4 edge in the all-time regular season
series with Indianapolis, including a 33-14 home victory
last Sunday. The Broncos were 31-17 winners when the teams
last played a regular season game in Indy, last season.
The only postseason meeting between the teams took place
last season, when Indianapolis won a 41-10 home matchup
in an AFC First-Round Playoff.
Dungy is 3-3 in his career against the Broncos, including
last year's playoff win. Shanahan is 2-3 all-time against
Indianapolis, including the postseason loss, and is 3-3
in his career against Dungy.
BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
The Denver offense will be saddled with the responsibility
of keeping the ball away from Manning and the Indianapolis
attack, and the best way for the unit to achieve that
will be on the ground. The Broncos ranked fourth in NFL
rushing offense (145.8 yards per game) during the regular
season, with bruiser Rueben Droughns (1240 rushing yards,
32 receptions, 8 TD) carrying most of the load and shifty
rookie Tatum Bell (396 yards, 3 TD) coming on late in
the campaign. Bell rushed 16 times for 91 yards against
the Colts last week, and Droughns added 76 yards on 15
carries. Droughns averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per rush
during the regular season, but also fumbled five times.
The task of slowing the Denver running game will fall
to an Indianapolis defense that ranked just 24th in the
league against the run (127.3 yards per game) during the
regular season, Defensive tackles Montae Reagor (41 tackles,
5 sacks) and Josh Williams (34 tackles) will be at the
center of that effort, along with end Raheem Brock (47
tackles, 6.5 sacks), who leads the line in stops. The
Indianapolis linebacking corps of Cato June (110 tackles,
2 INT), David Thornton (92 tackles, 1 INT) and Rob Morris
(77 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) is among the least heralded
in the NFL, but is capable of the occasional big play.
June and Thornton played sparingly against Denver last
Sunday, and Morris was held out.
Much like their rushing attack, the Broncos' passing
game has been effective at moving the ball, but has also
been subject to costly turnovers. Denver ranked sixth
in the league in passing offense (249.9 yards per game)
during the regular season, but quarterback Jake Plummer
(4089 passing yards, 27 TD, 20 INT) threw a number of
untimely picks. Plummer completed 17 of 30 passes for
246 yards and two touchdowns against Indianapolis last
Sunday, but also fumbled twice (he recovered both). Wideouts
Rod Smith (79 receptions, 7 TD) and Ashley Lelie (54 receptions,
7 TD) have each had productive years. Smith tallied six
catches for 76 yards in the Week 17 triumph, and Lelie
posted three receptions for 70 yards and a score. Tight
end Jed Putzier (36 receptions, 2 TD) has been an occasional
middle-of-the-field target for Plummer. A veteran Denver
offensive line has given up just 15 sacks this year, the
third-lowest figure in the NFL.
The Colts ranked a distant 28th in the league in passing
defense (243.2 yards per game) during the regular season,
but that figure had little to do with a pass rush that
tallied 45 sacks. End Dwight Freeney (34 tackles) led
the NFL with 16 sacks on the year, and fellow DE Robert
Mathis (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks), who has been slowed of
late by a groin strain, wasn't far behind. The combination
of the gun-slinging Plummer and the furious Indy pass
rush should mean some opportunities for the beleaguered
Colts secondary, particularly cornerbacks Jason David
(51 tackles, 4 INT) and Nick Harper (77 tackles, 3 INT).
David had three tackles last Sunday, but Harper and starting
free safety Idrees Bashir (57 tackles) were both inactive.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE
After sitting out most of last week's loss to Denver,
the incomparable Manning (4557 passing yards, 49 TD, 10
INT) will this Sunday look to become reacquainted with
his three 1,000-yard receivers: Marvin Harrison (86 receptions,
15 TD), Reggie Wayne (77 receptions, 12 TD), and Brandon
Stokley (68 receptions, 10 TD). All three saw limited
time in the Denver loss, with Harrison catching a team-high
five balls for 33 yards and a touchdown and Wayne adding
three receptions for 90 yards and a 71-yard scoring catch.
Manning will also look to involve tight ends Dallas Clark
(25 receptions, 5 TD) and Marcus Pollard (29 receptions,
6 TD), who have been key components in the passing game
all season. Indianapolis topped the league in passing
offense (288.9 yards per game) on the year, and the underrated
Colts line surrendered just 14 sacks, tied for the fewest
in the league.
Denver's inability to slow the Indianapolis passing game
in last year's playoffs prompted the team to make personnel
changes, with cornerback Champ Bailey (81 tackles, 3 INT)
and free safety John Lynch (64 tackles, 1 INT) the foremost
new members of that group. Bailey and Lynch will need
plenty of help from the other starters in the defensive
backfield, namely cornerback Kelly Herndon (67 tackles,
2 INT) and strong safety Kenoy Kennedy (87 tackles, 1
INT). Herndon forced and recovered a Dominic Rhodes fumble
last Sunday. Denver finished middle of the NFL pack with
38 sacks on the year, and will likely have some trouble
getting to the quick-thinking Manning. End Reggie Hayward
leads the team with 10.5 sacks, including one recorded
last week, and no other Bronco has more than three on
the year. Shanahan's team ranked sixth in the league in
passing defense (184.2 yards per game) during the regular
season.
Indianapolis running back Edgerrin James (1548 yards,
51 receptions, 9 TD) carried just once in last week's
Denver loss, and will seek to re-establish the form that
saw him ring up eight 100-yard games during the regular
season. James has not eclipsed the century mark since
his four-game 100-yard stretch was broken by Baltimore
in Week 15. Backup Dominic Rhodes (254 rushing yards,
1 TD) rushed 12 times for 34 yards and fumbled once against
the Broncos last week, but is unlikely to see many meaningful
touches on Sunday. Indianapolis ranked 15th in the league
in rushing offense (115.8 yards per game) during the regular
season.
Vying to slow James will be a Denver run-stopping crew
that ranked fourth in NFL rushing defense (94.5 yards
per game) during the regular season. The linebacking corps
of Al Wilson (104 tackles, 2.5 sacks), D.J. Williams (114
tackles, 2 sacks), and Donnie Spragan (67 tackles, 1 sack)
was reliable all year, and Hayward (43 tackles) was the
most prolific tackler on the line. Defensive tackles Monsanto
Pope (24 tackles, 1 sack) and Mario Fatafehi (20 tackles,
2.5 sacks) will also look for involvement, with backup
Ellis Johnson (16 tackles, 3 sacks) rotating in during
long-yardage situations. Denver held the Colts' backups
to just 34 rushing yards last Sunday.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Broncos replaced ineffective punter Micah Knorr with
Jason Baker (39.4 avg.) following Week 13, a move that
has provided diminishing returns. Kicker Jason Elam (29-34
FG, 42-42 XP) has been his trusty self, however, and last
week made good on all four of his attempts. The team has
utilized a variety of players to handle punt and kickoff
returns this year, with Rod Smith (10.1 avg.) used most
frequently on punts and Roc Alexander (20.3 avg.) fielding
a club-high 19 kickoffs. Charlie Adams busted his first-ever
NFL punt return for 39 yards last week, and could be a
factor on Sunday as well.
The Colts' kicking tandem of punter Hunter Smith (45.2
avg,) and kicker Mike Vanderjagt (20-25 FG, 59-60 XP)
is one of the steadiest in the business, though Vanderjagt
has uncharacteristically missed a few big kicks this season.
Former Buccaneer Martin Gramatica has handled the team's
kickoffs of late. Kickoff return man Rhodes (24.8 avg.,
1 TD) is capable of breaking a big one, but punt returners
Troy Walters (5.7 avg.) and Brad Pyatt (5.9 avg.) have
been less effective.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Many are expecting the Colts, who received a long look
at Denver's first- string last week, to roll with their
own first unit in the fold this week. And it is irrefutable
that the Indianapolis offense should run at a higher level
with Manning, James, and the fleet of receivers on the
field for the entire game. But that view ignores the fact
that the Broncos have a pretty effective offense of their
own, one that should be able to move the ball regularly
against a Colts defense that is shaky at best. Also, one
would expect Bailey, Lynch and a Denver secondary that
was revamped with slowing the Colts in mind to make an
occasional stop against Manning. Plummer seems destined
to make a mistake that turns the game in Indy's favor,
but don't be surprised if the outcome is in doubt as the
fourth quarter ticks away.
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Wild Card Playoff Previews
- (6) Minnesota (8-8) at (3) Green Bay (10-6)
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The heat will be turned up in an already-tense division
rivalry on Sunday afternoon, when the Green Bay Packers
play host to the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC Wild Card
game. The winner of Sunday's matchup at Lambeau Field
will have earned the right to move on in the postseason.
With a victory, the Packers will travel to play second-seeded
Atlanta in an NFC Divisional Playoff next weekend, while
the Vikings would visit top-seeded Philadelphia.
Minnesota will be looking to advance, and will also be
trying to eliminate the bitter taste of two narrow regular
season losses to Green Bay. The Vikings lost by identical
34-31 scores to the Packers in Week 10 and Week 16, the
first time the franchise had been swept in a home-and-home
against the team since 2000. Interestingly, 2000 was also
the occasion of the Vikings' most recent playoff appearance,
as they reached the NFC Championship before falling to
the Giants last year. As for this season, Mike Tice's
team limps into the playoffs having lost two in a row,
four of their last five, and seven of their last 10 after
starting the year 5-1. The Vikings were 21-18 losers in
Washington last Sunday.
Green Bay, meanwhile, comes into Sunday's game as one
of the NFL's hottest teams, having won nine of their last
11 since a 1-4 start. Mike Sherman's club, which is in
the postseason for the fourth consecutive season, defeated
the Bears, 31-14, in Week 17. Despite their recent run
of success, the Packers dropped the last contest they
played at Lambeau Field, falling 28-25 to the Jaguars
in Week 15. Green Bay was 4-4 at home during the regular
season, and 6-2 away from Lambeau.
SERIES HISTORY
Green Bay leads the all-time series with Minnesota, which
dates back to the 1961 season, by a narrow margin of 44-42-1.
The Packers swept the 2004 series with their longtime
division rival, winning by identical scores of 34-31 in
Week 10 and Week 16. Minnesota's last win in the series
came at Lambeau Field in 2003, when they prevailed by
a 30-25 count.
This will mark the first postseason meeting between the
teams.
Sherman has a 7-3 record against the Vikings all-time,
while Tice is 2-4 versus both the Packers and Sherman
as a head coach.
VIKINGS OFFENSE VS. PACKERS DEFENSE
The Vikings will bring the NFL's No. 2 passing offense
(282.2 yards per game) into Green Bay on Sunday, with
quarterback Daunte Culpepper (4717 passing yards, 39 TD,
11 INT) spearheading the attack. Culpepper led the NFL
in passing yards during the regular season, and threw
for 648 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception
in two meetings with the Packers this year. Wideout Nate
Burleson (68 receptions, 9 TD) had 100-yard outings in
both matchups, helping compensate for the absence of Randy
Moss (49 receptions, 13 TD). Moss did not play against
the Pack in Week 10, and had just two catches for 30 yards
and a score in the Christmas Eve tilt. Tight end Jermaine
Wiggins (71 receptions, 4 TD) has 10 catches and a touchdown
versus Green Bay this season, and posted a team-high seven
grabs for 58 yards in last week's loss to the Redskins.
The Minnesota offensive line gave up 46 sacks during the
regular season, including four last Sunday and four against
the Packers in Week 10. Green Bay did not sack Culpepper
in Week 16.
Culpepper will look to again pick on a Green Bay secondary
that features a pair of less-than-heralded cornerbacks
in Al Harris (62 tackles, 1 INT) and rookie Ahmad Carroll
(49 tackles, 1 INT). The tandem has relied on free safety
Darren Sharper (70 tackles, 4 INT) for assistance during
much of the season, with Sharper's 43-yard interception
for a score last week ranking as another big play for
the veteran. Looking to keep the pressure off of the secondary
is a Packer pass rush that has made big strides since
a slow start. The unit finished the regular season tied
for ninth in the league with 40 sacks, with end Kabeer-Gbaja
Biamila's 13.5 leading the way. Gbaja-Biamila had two
sacks of Culpepper in Week 10, but the team did not drop
Culpepper in the matchup at the Metrodome. Green Bay finished
the regular season ranked 25th in the league in passing
defense (228.9 yards per game).
Though he turned in a weak effort in Washington (8 carries,
19 yards), it appears that the Vikings will stick with
Michael Bennett (276 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 2 TD)
as their primary ball carrier. Bennett carried 17 times
for 92 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay on Christmas
Eve, and also caught three passes for 67 yards and a score.
Bennett's backup figures to be Onterrio Smith (544 rushing
yards, 36 receptions, 4 TD), and Moe Williams (161 rushing
yards, 21 receptions, 4 TD) should continue to be featured
in the role of third-down back. Williams had four catches
for 57 yards and a touchdown versus the Packers in Week
10. Tice's team ranked 18th in NFL rushing offense (113.9
yards per game) during the regular season.
The largest obstacle in running the ball against the
Packers is massive defensive tackle Grady Jackson (23
tackles, 1 sack), who helps tie up the middle along with
fellow interior lineman Cletidus Hunt (32 tackles, 2 sacks).
The presence of the pair makes life easier for linebackers
Nick Barnett (123 tackles, 3 sacks), Na'il Diggs (80 tackles)
and Hannibal Navies (47 tackles) who are undersized but
sure tacklers. End Aaron Kampman leads the line with 67
stops on the year, and is tied for second on the club
with 4.5 sacks. Green Bay was 14th in the league in rushing
defense (117.4 yards per game) following Week 17.
PACKERS OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS DEFENSE
Establishing the run will likely be a priority for the
Packers, who will turn to All-Pro running back Ahman Green
(1163 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 8 TD) to get the job
done in that regard. Green carried just four times against
Chicago last week, but has lodged an impact in both meetings
with the Vikings this year. The Nebraska product rumbled
for 145 yards on 21 carries in Week 10, and had 64 rushing
yards and a touchdown to go along with four receptions
against the team in Week 16. Najeh Davenport (359 rushing
yards, 2 TD), who sat out last week with a shoulder injury,
has been a productive backup to Green this year. Tony
Fisher (224 rushing yards, 38 receptions, 2 TD), who carried
19 times for 42 yards against Chicago last Sunday, caught
a touchdown pass against Minnesota in Week 10. Sherman's
squad ranked 10th in NFL rushing offense (119.2 yards
per game) during the regular season.
The Vikings have been largely ineffective against the
run this season, and the 118-yard day they yielded to
Redskins backup Ladell Betts last Sunday was hardly an
encouraging sign. The underachieving linebacking corps
of E.J. Henderson (93 tackles), Chris Claiborne (56 tackles),
and Keith Newman (47 tackles, 3 sacks) will have to do
better against Green, whom they held in check on Christmas
Eve. The Vikings' most disruptive run-stopper during the
regular season was tackle Kevin Williams (70 tackles,
12 sacks), who leads the line in stops and also paces
the team in sacks and fumble recoveries. Fellow tackle
Spencer Johnson (40 tackles) has also played well this
year, and end Kenny Mixon (46 tackles) has been the second-most
productive tackler in the trenches. Minnesota ranked 21st
in the league in rushing defense (125.4 yards per game)
during the regular season.
Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre (4088 passing yards,
30 TD, 17 INT) will be seeking an encore performance to
his Week 16 effort against the Vikings, when he completed
30 of 43 passes for 365 yards and three touchdowns in
a come- from-behind victory. Donald Driver (84 receptions,
9 TD) recorded 11 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown
in that game, and fellow WR Javon Walker (89 receptions,
12 TD) chipped in with five receptions for 90 yards and
a score. Tight end Bubba Franks (34 receptions, 7 TD),
who had four grabs for 59 yards and a TD in the Chicago
triumph, should serve as a middle-of-the-field option
for Favre. The Green Bay line allowed just 14 sacks all
year, which was tied for the league low, and Minnesota
had just one sack in two games against the team.
A unit that ranked third from the bottom in NFL passing
defense (243.5 yards per game) this year will be hampered
by the absence of strong safety Corey Chavous (elbow)
from the lineup this week. Chavous will be replaced by
Willie Offord (28 tackles), who had six stops against
the Redskins. Handling Driver and Walker will be the responsibility
of cornerbacks Brian Williams (74 tackles, 2 INT) and
Antoine Winfield (85 tackles, 3 INT), who mostly struggled
against the tandem in Week 16. Free safety Brian Russell
(81 tackles, 1 INT) will have to lend assistance. The
secondary will count on some help from a pass rush that
has chipped in with 39 sacks this year, including a team-high
12 from Kevin Williams and 11 from backup end Lance Johnstone
(31 tackles). Johnstone had a sack and a forced fumble
against Favre on Christmas Eve.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Vikings punter Darren Bennett (39.3 avg.) hasn't had
a spectacular year, but has been steady in his first season
with the team. Veteran kicker Morten Andersen (18-22 FG,
45-45 XP) is accurate, but is not a candidate to handle
long-range kicks, particularly outdoors. Jose Cortez will
handle kickoffs. Burleson (8.6 avg., 1 TD) can break the
occasional long punt return, but Mewelde Moore (19.3 avg.)
and Kelly Campbell (21.7 avg.) haven't offered much on
kickoffs. Minnesota gave up a kickoff return for a score
to Detroit's Eddie Drummond this season, their only TD
allowed on special teams in 2004.
Green Bay has lacked a top-notch punter for several years,
and Bryan Barker (40.1 avg.) has been decent but hasn't
offered the team much in the way of greatness. Longtime
kicker Ryan Longwell (24-28 FG, 48-48 XP), who is 4-4
against Minnesota this year including a game-winner in
Week 10, is extremely reliable. Antonio Chatman (7.7 punt
return avg., 22.6 kickoff return avg.) hasn't broken a
long one in the return game yet this season. The Packers
have not yielded a return for a score this season.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Minnesota has several stats working against it this week,
including Green Bay's lusty postseason record at Lambeau
Field, the Packers' advantage in cold weather, and the
Vikings' own 2-20 record on grass since 2000. But one
can just as easily break out the fact that the Pack is
a modest 4-4 at Lambeau this year, and that the weather
is going to be in the 30s at game time on Sunday, practically
balmy for Green Bay in January. The first two games of
this series have been played so evenly, there is little
logical reason to suggest the third installment will be
any different. Don't be surprised if this is the game
that the Minnesota offense finally takes consistent advantage
of the Packers' weak secondary, and that the Vikings make
a rare big defensive play against a Green Bay attack that
has made its share against many other opponents.
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