Wager On Football's
Fantasy Football expert stops by every week to give you
the lowdown on Fantasy Football. Fantasy insight is invaluable
when it comes to gaining knowledge about the one thing
that consumes so many of us die hard football fans for
six months every year. So Listen Up!! Then apply what
you learn to your starting lineups, you'll be surprised
how much skill your new Fantasy Football brain will contain.
Heck you could even make a smarter bet in our NFL sportsbooks.
The Fantasy
Playoffs Week 15
By:
David Bach man Fantasy Football Editor
12/15/04
Alrighty Then.....Where Was I
?
Well for most of us this is it. Week
1 of the Fantasy Playoffs. I’ve got a few things
I need to get off my chest here. First off – Look
at the weather for this week’s games on game day.
If you’re in one of those terrible leagues where
you have to start your lineups the day before well I can’t
do much for you. Get out of that league!! It is crucial
that you do a couple things this weekend in order to win
the all important playoff game.
Start Your Studs – Don’t play the what if.
Speaking of stud performances, how about last weeks game
by QB Billy Volek. With Steve "Air" McNair out
of commission, Volek threw for 426 yards and four touchdowns.
With that type of play from Volek, the Titans may not
need to bring McNair back anytime soon. Volek as hot as
he is has to be considered a starter this week.
Now listen you drafted Moss, or McNabb or Manning because
they are a stud. Don’t bench them now. If you get
beat because of an off week chalk it up to the fantasy
football gods. You win with your studs and starters and
well…you lose with them as well. People -- please
take note that Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Matt Hasselbeck
and Carson Palmer are not "studs." Neither is
Rudi Johnson, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Donte' Stallworth,
Keyshawn Johnson, Santana Moss or the host of other names
that you write in about. It really doesn't matter if you
drafted them in the first round or not.
• Check the weather forecast – Ever hear of
Green Bay in December? If you have a chance to play a
wide receiver playing in a dome or somewhere sunny (ahem
Tampa) than you may want to look at that guy over the
guy playing in a blizzard. This could come back to bite
you in the ass – Kerry Collins in Denver a couple
weeks ago. Just trust me on this one. Check the game day
weather.
• If you are in a league that can play 2 running
backs instead of 1 running back and three wide receivers
I’d suggest you play the two running backs. Rb’s
get more touches, are more involved in the play and consistently
have always put up more points than wide receivers. Now
I’m not telling you to play Kevin Jones over Randy
Moss here guys, but I am telling you to play two running
backs whenever possible.
• Start your defenses against San Francisco, Miami,
Oakland, Cleveland, NY Jets, and Detroit.
• Start running backs against Arizona. Maurice
Hicks is not the first player to post a breakout game
against the Cardinals; remember when Nick Goings rushed
for 121 yards and three touchdowns against them in Week
11? In their last five games, the Cards have allowed their
opponent's leading rusher to average 132.6 yards with
six TDs. St. Louis gets them next, so keep an eye on who
starts from Arlen Harris, Steven Jackson and Marshall
Faulk. And if you're a Shaun Alexander or Michael Pittman
owner, you have to love that they'll be playing the Cards
in Weeks 16 and 17.
• Need to start a kicker and you don’t know
who?? Here start Josh Brown – Seattle. He has 97
points, converted 91.6 percent of his field goals (22/24),
100 percent of his extra points (31/31) and will finish
with 119 points at his current rate. That's close to 30
points more than Wilkins.
• Who do you start at TE ? Well if it was me I’d
start Witten who has become a valuable option in leagues
with 12-plus teams. He has 592 yards and four touchdowns
in his past eight starts, which includes three games with
at least 97 yards, and is the first option in an offense
that has few stars.
• I’m just not sold on Clayton, even more
so now that Galloway is in the mix. So I’m saying
don’t play him this week. Clayton. On waivers in
countless leagues through the first three weeks, has become
the most productive and reliable option in the pass attack
for Jon Gruden's Buccaneers. The LSU star will finish
with 1,216 yards and five touchdowns at his current rate,
which are on the same level as Pittsburgh’s Hines
Ward despite three fewer starts.
• Watch out for Running Back By Committee’s
At the end of the year - Pittsburgh: The prototypical
RB-by-committee picture of the 2004 season, this one's
easy to figure out. Jerome Bettis got 10 of the Steelers'
31 carries in Week 14 to Duce Staley's 16, not a big differential.
Bettis is also the one who gets the goal-line call, beating
Staley in TDs 12-1 on the year. These guys get the Giants
(26th, 137.5), so Bettis is the better starter, especially
with Staley battling a hamstring injury. Assuming Staley
is cleared to play, he could even be useful as a No. 3
or flex starter. Baltimore: Jamal Lewis' return thrusts
this team onto the list despite Chester Taylor having
back-to-back 100-yard games.
The plan against the Colts (20th, 120.8) is for Lewis
to be used in two-thirds of the plays, meaning Taylor
is a sit getting the other third. As for Lewis, the real
question is how many carries "two-thirds" will
mean, since Indianapolis has allowed an average 25 carries
in their last four games, mostly blowouts. Lewis rarely
gets involved in the receiving game, so you're talking
about 16 carries perhaps at less than 100 percent. He's
worth starting, but not over a more established back.
Kansas City: Here's what's interesting; Larry Johnson
has led Derrick Blaylock in rushing yards and TDs in each
of the last two weeks, yet Blaylock was the one who got
more carries in Week 14 (14-7). Johnson has demonstrated
the better upside, but with the two in a virtual split
of the workload, it's tough to count on either against
the Broncos (5th, 96.7). Your best move is to only use
Johnson, and mainly if Blaylock is limited due to his
knee injury
Denver: It's all about health. Tatum Bell has demonstrated
that he's ready to assume a heavy share of carries, but
his separated shoulder puts his status in question. Even
if he can play against the Chiefs (14th, 112.8), Bell
probably won't be 100 percent and Reuben Droughns is expected
to start anyway. Droughns will be worth using if Bell
is ruled out, but otherwise you should steer clear of
both.
Well lets get onto some more stuff shall we?
Week 15 NFL Fantasy Quick Hits
Steelers wide receiver Plaxico Burress is listed as questionable
for Week #15. Follow Burress' practice schedule this week.
This is the best indicator of whether he will play against
the Giants on Sunday.
Steelers leading receiver Hines Ward is getting extra
attention from D-Backs now that Burress is absent from
the Steelers starting lineup. Ward has averaged just 3-catches
over the last 5-games and has found the end zone but once.
Laveranues Coles caught 12 passes for 100 yards in a
Week #14 loss to the Eagles. Coles owners have been waiting
for this Redskins scheduled stretch of game so they could
take advantage of the number of targeted looks Coles has
gotten this season. Coles ranks in the top-five of receivers
targeted this season and the upcoming schedule calls for
some big numbers from the ‘Skins most dangerous
receiver. Make sure you have Coles in your lineup during
the fantasy playoffs. Coach Dennis Erickson said that
if Maurice Hicks was healthy he would get the start in
Week #15 against the Redskins at Monster Park. According
to reports, "It is kind of hard not to play a guy
that played like he did the other day. But, we would use
both him and Kevan Barlow," Erickson said. San Francisco's
wide receiver Cedric Wilson caught two Ken Dorsey touchdown
passes in a Week #14 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Wilson
finished the game with 83 receiving yards and 5 receptions.
Wilson did lead the Niners in receiving yards on Sunday,
but it was his first end zone sighting since week number-one.
With running back T.J. Duckett slated to have arthroscopic
surgery on his left knee today and expected to miss at
least two weeks, raise the fantasy stock of Warrick Dunn.
Dunn should carry the load for the Falcons while Duckett
is out.
Patriots running back Corey Dillon had 22 carries for
88 yards and a touchdown in a Week #14 win over his old
team, the Cincinnati Bengals. Dillon didn't get to do
as much damage to the Bengals as he would like, but after
missing practice all of last week fantasy owners should
be happy with what they received. Dillon should practice
and be ready to abuse the Dolphins rush defense in Week
#15.
The Baltimore Sun reports that Jamal Lewis is expected
to play 40-45 snaps against the Colts in Week #15. In
fact Billick is on record as saying that Lewis could take
all of the Week #15 offensive work if necessary.
The Tennessean is reporting that Steve McNair (sternum)
might not play the rest of this season. McNair hasn't
practiced since re-injuring the sternum in the last week
of November and reportedly can't throw the football more
than 30-yards. Grab Volek now…and pick up sideshow
Bob too….ya you know the guy – Bennett.
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor had 21
carries for 79 yards and added 4 receptions for 4 yards
in a Week #14 win over the Chicago Bears. The Jags offensive
line has done a terrific job in the second half of the
season, and the addition of a healthy Kyle Brady has helped
Fred Taylor to his late season success. Taylor has four
100-yard performances in the last seven games and looks
to continue that trend against a porous Green Bay stop
unit.
Tampa Bay quarterback Brian Griese was 36-of-50 for 392
yards and threw three touchdowns in a Week #14 loss to
the Chargers. Griese's three interceptions didn't help
the Bucs cause, but his performance this season makes
him a candidate to be the Buccaneers starting signal caller
next season. Griese faces the Saints secondary in Week
#15, and is a must start unless you have exceptional depth
at quarterback------I’d think seriously about starting
Galloway this week as well in TD leagues especially. He’s
the man there now – Clayton is regressing.
One day after missing a 20-7 loss to the Panthers with
a sprained shoulder, Marc Bulger resumed light throwing
on Monday. The Rams are aiming for him to return next
week against the Eagles. "He's a little sore, but
who knows?" coach Mike Martz said Monday. "We
may have him, but I'm not going to count on it."
That means another week with 39-year-old backup Chris
Chandler, whose first start of the season was forgettable
and included a career-worst six interceptions." The
Rams match-up against the Cardinals in Week #14 is less
dangerous for Chandler, especially from the stand point
of pressure from the Arizona defensive line. Keep your
ear to the ground concerning Bulger
Kansas City running back Derrick Blaylock sprained his
MCL in the Chiefs Week #14 Monday night victory over the
Tennessee Titans. Blaylock underwent an MRI this morning
and the test revealed a slight MCL sprain. The Chiefs
coaching staff didn’t consider the injury serious
but will see how Blaylock responds during practice this
week. Broncos tailback Tatum Bell believes his shoulder
injury isn't as bad as first thought and insists he could
be available for next weekend's game against Kansas City.
Bell, a second-round draft pick from Oklahoma State, ran
for 123 yards and two touchdowns Sunday after replacing
Reuben Droughns, who fumbled twice early in Denver's 20-17
win over Miami. Denver improved to 8-5 and stayed tied
with Baltimore for the AFC's final wildcard spot. After
the game, Broncos coach Mike Shanahan said Bell's injury
was a third-degree shoulder separation, the worst kind
possible. Bell, however, said the shoulder wasn't feeling
too bad Monday
Eagles All-pro signal caller Donavan McNabb was 21-of-38
for 260 yards and a touchdown in a Week #14 win over the
Redskins. Fantasy owners can't wait for McNabb to face
the Cowboys secondary in Week #15. For many fantasy league
owners, the playoffs begin in Week #15, and the owners
that roster McNabb gets the Cowboys dismal defense as
their opening game opponent. How sweet it is! Those fantasy
owners that use Donavan McNabb or Brian Westbrook should
have Koy Detmer and Dorsey Levens in reserve, especially
if your league championship is in Week #17.
Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck
was 23-of-34 for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Hasselbeck
and the Seahawks pulled off the road victory upsetting
the Minnesota Vikings in Week #14. Things get much tougher
for the Seattle quarterback this week. Hasselbeck faced
the dismal D-units of Dallas and Minnesota over the last
two weeks, but in Week #15 the Seahawks travel back across
the country to partake in the Big Apple December weather
conditions while facing a very good New York Jets defense.
Even thought Hasselbeck is hot, you should consider your
options before automatically throwing him in your starting
lineup.
Chargers wide receiver Eric Parker did in fact have success
in the Chargers vs. Buccaneers game last Sunday. Parker
had six receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown in a
Week #14 win against the Buccaneers. With defenses concentrating
on Antonio Gates and the injury to Keenan McCardell last
Sunday, Parker had a stellar performance in Week #14.
Keep track of McCardell and his playing status this week.
If McCardell isn't at full strength for Week #15 vs. the
Browns, Parker makes a terrific wide out start in deep
leagues, and a serious sleeper in traditional formats.-----
Chargers second year tight end Antonio Gates had one reception
for 17 yards in a Week #14 win over the Buccaneers. Gates
was targeted only three times on Sunday by quarterback
Drew Brees, a season low.
Mike Tice had insisted last week that he would limit
Moss' playing time to rest his hamstring and sore back,
but instead Moss saw action on all but one of the Vikings'
60 offensive plays. Quarterback Daunte Culpepper threw
six deep passes his way, drawing two pass-interference
calls, and Moss finished with four receptions for 104
yards." At 90 percent Randy Moss is better than most
receivers in the league. Detroit wide receiver Roy Williams
scored five touchdowns in his first five games, and hasn‘t
been located since. Bench Him.
Despite the recent success of wide receiver Lee Evans,
teams are still focused on trying to take Eric Moulds
out of his routes. Opponents' double teaming of Moulds
has allowed Evans to exploit singe coverage for big plays.Reporting
numbers that are Priest Holmes like, Bills running back
Willis McGahee had 11 red zone carries and was targeted
as a receiver twice within the 20-yard zone in Week #14.
Texans quarterback David Carr had another disappointing
Sunday stat line in a Week #14 loss to the Colts. Carr
was 16-of-21 for 167 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Carr also lost a fumble making his traditional fantasy
performance almost a wash. When you don't take advantage
of the Indianapolis defense, at home, then you have missed
a huge opportunity to pad your stats. Yes, I am referring
to you Mr. Carr. As difficult as it is to do, you must
consider sitting Carr in Week #15, especially with the
large number of favorable QB match-ups this weekend.
Houston Texans running back Domanick Davis had 201 all-purpose
yards in a Week #14 loss to Peyton Manning and the Colts.
Davis had 23 carries for 128 yards and a rushing touchdown.
He also caught six passes for 73 yards. Davis was THE
Houston offense in Week #14, and unless Carr and his receiving
corps (especially Andre Johnson) can get some sort of
connection, the Texans won't win at Chicago in Week #15.
Without Brian Urlacher (hamstring), a possible scratch
in the Week #15 contest, Davis should have his way with
the Bears front seven.
Injury Updates
Terrell Owens suffered a lower back contusion in Week
14, and his status for Week 15 is uncertain. It's still
to early to be writing Owens off in fantasy leagues, especially
when he's facing the Cowboys, but you should keep in mind
that the Eagles have little left to play for -- one more
win or a Falcons loss would clinch them the NFC's best
record and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Expect Philadelphia to be cautious with their most important
receiver, so don't be shocked if he's limited, in which
case you should lower your expectations for the Eagles'
pass attack.
The Rams' running back situation sounds as shaky as
it did in Week 14, as Steven Jackson is listed as questionable
and Marshall Faulk is expected to be limited. If Arlen
Harris gets another start -- and right now, it seems like
he will -- he's not a bad gamble against a weak Cardinals
rush defense (145.2, 31st; 19 TD, 32nd).
Email:
Eddie Lyght, Chicago: Which three wide
receivers should I start: Houshmandzadeh, Marvin Harrison,
Eddie Kennison, Lee Evans or Ashley Lelie?
DB.: Harrison doesn't have a favorable
opponent (at Baltimore), but it's difficult to reserve
a receiver of his caliber. Houshmandzadeh has been too
hot to sit, and Lelie's contest vs. a terrible Chiefs
defense makes him an attractive starter.
Carlos Manual – San Jose: I've
ridden Peyton Manning all the way to the playoffs. Do
I bench him in the first round since he plays Baltimore?
I can play Griese vs. the horrible Saints. Also, do I
just need to drop Roy Williams for Eddie Kennison? Williams'
QB, Joey Harrington, looks horrible.
DB: Did anyone read what I wrote above?
I may have to start giving tests around here. Play your
stud -- Manning. And yes, drop Williams for Kennison.
You probably should have done that 3-4 weeks ago.
What I'm hearing
The rumors that head
coach Mike Holmgren could be in trouble predictably picked
up steam following the Seahawks’ crushing loss to
Dallas — a game that featured a fourth-quarter meltdown
eerily similar to the one that occurred vs. the Rams in
Week Five. Even if the Seahawks manage to make it to the
playoffs, we hear it’s really starting to look like
Holmgren’s sixth season in Seattle may be his last.
A strong performance against the Cowboys on a national
stage might have tightened Holmgren’s grip on the
head-coaching reins. However, an explosive offensive performance,
spearheaded by QB Matt Hasselbeck, was greatly overshadowed
by the team’s abysmal defensive effort for the second
game in a row. In addition, the Seahawks again demonstrated
a knack for making costly mistakes — like the team’s
three fumbles in the second and third quarters, which
helped Dallas score 26 straight points.
Sources on the scene
said Holmgren looked like a defeated man much of last
week, prior to the Hawks’ key 27-23 win at Minnesota
in Week 14. In his team’s last two home games, the
boos have gotten increasingly louder. At the same time,
the local media have begun speculating on Holmgren’s
future on a daily basis. We hear the growing perception
— both locally and nationally — that the Seahawks
could be the most underachieving team in the league has
not been lost on an organization that is clearly disappointed
by Holmgren’s lack of success. The head coach’s
strained relationship with team president Bob Whitsitt
certainly doesn’t help matters. The way we hear
it, unless the Seahawks can finish strong and go deep
into the playoffs, Holmgren’s dismissal after the
season would hardly be a shock. One thing you need to
know is this however. As for fantasy players let it be
said that his players though shorthanded are playing hard
for him. Start Alexander, Jackson, and Ken Lucas
in all leagues.
Final Thoughts
All this Goings and
Bell talk reminds me to remind you to take chances on
running backs late in the year. Fresh legs against tired
legs can catapult your feeble fantasy team into a playoff
cruncher. Did anybody pry away Duckett from disinterested
owners a month ago or so? I had a feeling the Falcons
were keeping him fresh for a playoff run. I think I mentioned
it in this column. And if I wasn't so shiftless and lazy
I'd look back through all may columns and prove it, but
you'll just have to take my word for it. Lots of people
cussing the Huddle and every other site on the planet
when Duckett was a non factor, but he could have single
handedly won a playoff game for his patient owners Sunday.
Patience is a HUGE part of this game. I was one of those
fantasy owners on the Tatum Bell roller coaster Sunday.
I scooped him up when his owner finally threw him in the
waiver pile. If the owner in my league who drafted Tatum
Bell in the 5th round and held onto him most of the season
had just been a little more patient he could been the
one to go through the invigorating joy and the immense
pain I went through Sunday.
And then there was Drew Bennett. His Monday Night performance
is the stuff of fantasy football legend not to mention
Monday Night Football legend. Seriously, you'll be an
old geezer drooling on yourself at the nursing home. They'll
wheel you into the TV room , and the Monday Night Football
announcers (probably the Olsen twins if I'm correct on
ABC's future direction) will be showing clips of Bennett's
performance all those years ago.
Don't You Have Some Work To Get To?
Have a Great Week. Check out the Fantasy
Football page for this weeks NFL fantasy player rankings,
studs & duds, who's Hot and who's NOT, as well as
the NFL fantasy football waiver wire.
Try out our NFL Sportsbooks
in the Review, and good luck in week 15 everyone. Dave
B. Write
Me.
