Betting 2006 Preakness: Fear Factor

A common question I’m asked is: why is the field in the Preakness Stakes usually smaller than the Kentucky Derby?

There are several answers. The Derby is more likely to increase the stud fees for the winner to about a quarter of a million dollars, whereas the Preakness alone will bring maybe $50,000 to $75,000.

Another is the Derby is a world wide event, owners and trainers want to be at Churchill Downs on Derby day and it is a career builder for all involved.

Perhaps the most important reason the field is smaller? The evident this year more then past years is eliciting fear.

If your horse does not win the Derby, you cannot win the Triple Crown, and he probably has just run the most grueling race of his life, so you don’t want him running again until he is fit. So in that case, it is best to pass on the Preakness. Also, most owners will pass because there are several major stakes later in the summer for three-year olds with big purses, and they want a shot at those. Having just 14 days off before the Preakness is not enough time to recover.
Then there is the fear factor; a major reason most will pass the Preakness this year. Trainer Bob Baffert has already shipped his two top horses (Bob and John and Point Determined) back to California, saying he did not want to challenge Barbaro at this point.
Whether they admit it or not, he is the reason the Preakness may have only 5 starters next Saturday at Pimlico, as the trainers saw a very sharp horse win the Derby.

Brother Derek will run because he has a great shot. The fact that Pimlico favors speed and there will be a small field, plays to his advantage.

If you look at the charts on Brother Derek when he was allowed to get close to or set the pace himself, he is unbeaten. He could not do so in the Derby because of all the other speed horses inside of him at the start, and he could not be rated.

This Saturday he will pose a great threat to Barbaro, who will have to catch him from behind. This will turn out to be a great race if Brother Derek is up to the task. The speed against the closer, it will look like a match race between these two. Then add Sweetnorthernsaint and we have a great race.

To show you how tough the Run for the Roses is on young horses, none of the horses who ran in the Derby will have an official workout this week. They will go into the Preakness with just the memory of what they did in their last race.
Possible Preakness field

Brother Derek, Barbaro, Sweetnorthensaint, Bernadini (won Withers) Like Now, Hemingway’s Key and possibly Ah Day whose owners will have to pay a $100,000 supplemental fee to enter him because he was not originally nominated for the Triple Crown races.

FURLONGS:

A young apprentice jockey at Pimlico, Rosie Napravnik, is setting the track on fire. She leads all riders there with 28 wins in the first 13 days of the meet. Just 18 years old, she is 4th in the nation with 127 wins so far in 2006. Rosie had five winners on Thursday and four winners on Sunday. She said it would be nice to win 5 on Preakness day.

Lone Star Park- Jock Roman Chapa will be out 8 weeks with a broken collarbone.
New York- Jock JR Velazquez says he will be back in about two weeks.
For any questions or horse picks, email me at [email protected].

More Betus.com Articles...