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From investors in the
dot-com bubble (who might've studied the Dutch
tulip craze of the 17th century) to signers of
Terrell Owens (who might've considered his years
in Philadelphia and San Francisco), those who
believe the phrase "it'll be different this
time" are dancing with the devil...while
playing with fire...and running with scissors.
So begins Week 1 of the NFL
season. What can we expect? If history has anything
to say, don't be shocked if some or all of the
following games transpire Sunday:
No. 1 - The Big Surprise
Last year, it was 6-point
underdog Miami hammering Denver 34-10. The Dolphins,
who had endured a 4-12 record in 2004, had a new
coach in Nick Saban and an aging quarterback in
Gus Frerotte. Meanwhile, the Broncos were coming
off a playoff season and, as per usual, were being
touted as Super Bowl contenders. So how did Miami
do it? More importantly, what can we learn?
First off, never underestimate
the power of weather. The Broncos are a cold-weather
team. They're used to playing in sub-zero temperatures,
not 90-degree South Florida heat, as was the case
during that game. In fact, Denver fell to 0-7
all-time in Miami with last season's loss.
"We knew it was going
to be difficult to come in here and deal with
the elements in their backyard," coach Mike
Shanahan told the Associated Press after the game.
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Weather a Factor?
Temperatures in the high-80s are
forecasted for Sunday in Tampa. That's
where the Buccaneers (-3) will play
Baltimore. Given the Ravens' defense
thrives on aggression - not a surprise
with Ray Lewis patrolling the middle
- will the heat and humidity affect
Baltimore's ability to get after Bucs
running back Cadillac Williams? T-Bay
was 6-0 when Williams ran for more
than 100 yards last year. Also of
note, Baltimore is winless in season
openers since 2001.
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Second, understand that
a new coach is tough to game plan against. Before
taking the job with Miami, Saban was the head
coach at LSU, so his play-calling tendencies at
the pro level were uncharted. Saban threw a number
of creative offensive plays at the Broncos, including
a 61-yard reverse run for wide receiver Chris
Chambers.
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An Unknown at the
Helm?
New Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy
didn't have much to work with last
year as offensive coordinator in San
Francisco. In 2006 he'll have Brett
Favre as his quarterback, an upgrade
to say the least over Alex Smith,
who was an embattled rookie last year.
The Packers (+3.5) host arguably the
NFL's best defense in Chicago. Can
McCarthy catch counterpart Lovie Smith
off guard?
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No. 2 - The De-Hyper
Every year a few teams become
chic picks to shake off the shackles of mediocrity
and emerge as playoff contenders. Last year, one
of them was Arizona.
It's tough to fathom now,
but the Cardinals opened as mere 1-point underdogs
at the Giants in Week 1. New York won 42-19, exposing
Arizona's hopeless running game (Kurt Warner was
the team's leading rusher with 11 yards gained)
and woeful kick coverage. (The Giants returned
both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns in the
game. Not suprisingly, the Cardinals finished
dead last in kick-return defense last year, surrendering
an average of 28.3 yards per kickoff, three of
which went for scores.)
The next week, bettors weren't
so generous with Arizona. The Cardinals closed
as 1-point favorites at home to St. Louis, and
the hype was officially unbelieved when the Rams
pulled out a 17-12 win.
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A Little Too Much
Respect?
Despite missing the playoffs, the
Miami Dolphins won their last six
games in 2005, and with the addition
of quarterback Daunte Culpepper are
being given a legitimate shot at beating
out the New England Patriots for the
AFC East title in 2006. They're also
1.5-point favorites going into Pittsburgh
to face the Super Bowl champion (though
Ben Roethlisberger-less) Steelers
on Thursday. The thing is, Big Ben's
replacement, Charlie Batch, was 2-0
straight up and against the spread
as a starter last season.
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#3 - The Reminder
The Indianopolis Colts were
the bane of sportsbooks last year. Six times the
team that started 13-0 commanded double-digit
spreads. Of those six, Peyton Manning and Co.
covered four of them. It was only when the Colts
locked up home-field advantage throughout the
playoffs that they let up and lost their last
three against the number.
Of course, much of the luster
came off the Indianapolis shine when it fell at
home to Pittsburgh in the playoffs. And when it
lost running back Edgerrin James to free agency
during the offseason, some even suggested the
Colts had lost their shoe-in status in the AFC
South.
But don't forget, the Colts
opened the 2005 campaign with question marks,
specifically concerning their suspect defense.
Their answer? In Week 1, as 3-point road favorites
they took it to the Baltimore Ravens 24-7. They
then proceeded to allow 10 or fewer points in
their next four games. Just a reminder to all
the doubters: good football teams adapt to change.
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What's An Edge
Worth?
The Colts are 3.5-point road favorites
in New York this week against the
Giants. Last year, Indy garnered and
covered the following road lines against
playoff teams: -4.5 in New England
(Week 9), -5 in Cincinnati (Week 11),
-7.5 in Jacksonville (Week 14). Of
note, Manning threw for more than
300 yards in all three of those games,
while James rushed for 100 yards against
only New England.
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TOP
PHOTO: Nick Saban won't have the element
of surprise on his side in 2006. (AI Wire photo)
Note: All
NFL lines subject to change.
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