Triple Crown Watch

The Preakness might not get much respect, but you still have to bet on it

When it comes to horse racing’s Triple Crown, the Preakness is equivalent to an NBA game: Nobody really cares until there’s a minute or so left.

You can walk into a room, flip on your television and catch the final 60 seconds of an NBA game and learn everything you need to know. Same holds true for the Preakness. Coming out of the final turn, the only real question is will the Kentucky Derby winner also win the Preakness and give all sports fans a reason to care about the Belmont Stakes next month?

It’s not the fault of the Preakness, because we all know a horse race with millions of people watching and betting on it is still exciting.

Rather, it's the Preakness' position as the second race in the Triple Crown series. It lacks the prestigious appeal and tradition of the Kentucky Derby and the potential historic glory of the Belmont Stakes.

But life has inherent rules that must be adhered to, and in this case, one of those inherent rules is: If you have the means to gamble on a sporting even, then gamble on a sporting event.

So here we are, days away from the Preakness. Only nine horses are in the field at the Pimlico Downs, making our wagering decisions much less cumbersome than the 20-horse field at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. One of those nine horses is Barbaro, the Kentucky Derby champion, making our wagering decision very much less cumbersome.

Barbaro moved to the front in the final turn of the Kentucky Derby and then ran away from the field for a 6 ½-length victory, the widest margin since Triple Crown winner Assault in 1946. Jockey Edgar Prado, among the best there is in the saddle, ran such a flawless race, he barely had to do anything toward the end.

One of the byproducts of such a cruise to victory is the phrase “He’s a lot of horse.” We’re not quite sure of the precise definition of that saying, but it’s a great sports phrase and it deserves its place in the American vernacular.

Can the undefeated Barbaro be successful after just a two-week layoff when all his other races were at least five weeks apart? Some say yes, that he’s fresh. Others say no, that he’s not used to such a short rest.

Barbaro could be tested this Saturday in Maryland. Brother Derek, who had an awfully wide trip at the Derby with his No. 18 post and finished in a dead heat for fourth, should be a challenge. After all, Brother Derek was the morning-line favorite at the Derby for a reason. He’s a good horse. Fast, too.

Brother Derek is the second choice for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, running from the No. 5 post and opening at 3-1.

“It’s a great post, right in the middle,” trainer Dan Hendricks said. “We’ll be able to see what Like Now does. I think it will give Alex [Solis] an easy starting point. We might be able to get the jump on [Barbaro] right out of the gate and not have to worry about him until later on in the race.”

Sweetnorthernsaint, the No. 7 horse, is the third at 4-1. Remember, the morning-line favorite for the Derby was Brother Derek, yet come post time, the heavy money went the way of Sweetnorthernsaint, who finished a tired seventh after peaking early.

Still, Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint – the only two other horses from the Derby to run in the Preakness – are going to have to cross the line ahead of Barbaro and that’s not exactly the easiest task. Barbaro is a perfect 6-0.

Here’s a funky little stat for those who like funky little stats: None of the five previously undefeated Derby winners have ever lost the Preakness. Ever. Guess you know where to put your money this Saturday.

Of course, the even-money odds Barbaro opened at will likely drop. Betting on the short money is usually not the best way to make big money, but it can be considered a good way to not lose big money.

Enter the wheel bet.

It’s a lesson taught to many at the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Smarty Jones, the world’s most adored horse that year, was a preposterous 1-9 favorite at post time. So, if you bet $2 to win, as millions of people did, you turned a profit of about 20 cents. That doesn’t even buy you a newspaper these days.

But, if you played an exacta wheel bet with Smarty Jones (meaning you picked Smarty Jones and any other horse to finish 1-2 in either order), you’d make some nice money, even if another favored horse finished in one of the top two spots.

The field is only nine horses for this year’s Preakness, the smallest group since 2000. This should provide for a much smoother race for the horses instead of the Ventura Freeway that is the Kentucky Derby. This benefits Brother Derek the most, since he’s more accustomed to running against smaller fields. Look for Brother Derek to set the pace, or at least be near the front early.

A smaller field gives the gelding Sweetnorthernsaint a better chance this time around, too, since tactics and talent often don’t prove as important as they do in the crowded Derby.

Six new horses join the mix for the Preakness. Bernardini and Like Now appear to be the best of the lot. Bernardini won impressively at the Withers Stakes at Belmont Park. Like Now, a speed horse, won the Gotham Stakes.

Diabolical, a 30-1 longshot, may live up to his name for Barbaro bettors. Likely not. But you never know. Just keep in mind none of the five previous Preakness winners skipped the Kentucky Derby.

If you’re a Yankee fan, you might be interested in 20-1 longshot Hemingway’s Key, owned by George Steinbrenner. If you’re a Yankee hater, well, at least you’ve got one less horse to choose from.

Mark LaMonica is a freelance sportswriter based in metro New York.

PHOTO: By winning the Preakness, Barbaro would be in position to make history at the Belmont Stakes (Getty Images photo).

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