CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND WAGER

January 20th, 2006

If you don't trust the Seahawks to cover in the NFC Championship Game, consider the moneyline

By Jason Brough
BodogNation Contributing Writer

The Seattle Seahawks had an impressive year - in fact, it was the best in their tortured 30-year history. They went 13-3 in the regular season and had a first-round playoff bye wrapped up by Week 15.

Despite all that, bettors still don't appear convinced they're Super Bowl calibre. Early action for the NFC Championship Game between Seattle and Carolina was on the Panthers, so much so that the spread was bid down from Seattle -6 to as low as -3.5 at some sportsbooks.

Of course, with consecutive road victories over the Giants and Bears this postseason, the Panthers have much to do with the line move. But don't the Seahawks - the same team that went 8-0 at home in the regular season, defeating visitors by an average of 16.75 points - deserve a little more respect?

Maybe, but Carolina backers are pointing toward Seattle's schedule to support their position. Not only was it one of the easiest in the NFL, the Seahawks didn't exactly blow out any quality visiting NFC teams.

Looking back, there was a three-point home victory over Atlanta (8-8) in Week 2, another three-point home victory over Dallas (9-7) in Week 7, and yet another three-point home victory over the New York Giants (11-5) in Week 12. And that was it for visiting NFC opponents with a record that finished at or above .500.

 

Although the Seahawks and their high-flying offense have the potential to run up the score on any opponent, there are competing precedents that suggest a tight game come Sunday.

So what are Seattle supporters to do? With the obvious potential for a Seattle landslide victory, they don't feel comfortable taking the Panthers +3.5. But at the same time, Seattle -3.5 makes them nervous.

There is another option to consider: the moneyline.

Quick refresher: The moneyline is a way to bet without the point spread. The favorite and underdog are given odds to outright win a game or event. The minus sign (e.g. -130) always indicates the favorite and the amount you must bet ($130) to win ($100). The plus sign (e.g. +120) always indicates the underdog and the amount that you win ($120) for every bet ($100).

Although each offshore book is different, here is a chart that shows a general guideline for converting football spreads to moneylines.

Not every moneyline will present an opportunity, but be sure to compare the moneylines and corresponding spread. Wagering is a game of supply and demand. Going against the public trends will lead to getting better prices on all your plays.

Accordingly, with the heavy action on the Panthers, there is reason to believe there might be value in taking the Seahawks with the moneyline. Translation: when shopping around, if you can find a line cheaper than Seattle (-175), it deserves some consideration.

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