Bodog NFL Week 9 Picks

A Detroit native, Raconteurs frontman Jack White finds himself living in the home of (arguably) the most dysfunctional team in the NFL. It would seem unlikely, then, that the sad-sack Lions are an inspiration for any of his music...but bear with us.

While we doubt that his aforementioned opus has anything to do with pigskin prowess, we do like to believe that the song is apropos for the steadiest team in football - the New England Patriots. And heading into their biggest game of the season this weekend, the Pats are steadying themselves for a victory over the Colts.

See, New England QB Tom Brady hasn't just gone out and found a friend that knows him well - he's familiarized himself with an entire offensive corps. In one of the more unheralded and seamless transitions of the year, Brady has implemented five new faces at the "skill positions" - RB Laurence Maroney, TE David Thomas and WRs Chad Jackson, Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel - and they've all gotten to know Brady very well, each making key contributions to the league's seventh-highest-scoring offense (23.9 points per game).

But will Brady's steady hand translate into victory this weekend? You have to like his chances. Brady's dominance over Peyton Manning in head-to-head battles (since 2000, Brady is 6-1) is noteworthy, but Pats coach Bill Belichick's record against the Colts (since 2000, he's 9-2) is astounding.

And just to add a wrinkle, Belichick has thrown a wrench into Tony Dungy's film sessions by displaying new offensive schemes that make the Patriots almost impossible to gameplan against. In Monday night's whitewash win over Minnesota, the Pats threw the ball 46 times while calling only 15 rushing plays - a pass-run ratio of 3-to-1. In their previous six games, the Pats ran the ball 203 times compared with only 186 passing attempts (a 1.8-to-2 run-pass ratio).

And the kicker? In that pass-happy Minnesota game, New England racked up 430 net yards, its biggest offensive explosion of the year. Brady passed for 372 yards and threw touchdowns to four receivers. In all, he completed passes to 10 different targets, a testament to how comfortable he's become with his revamped offense.

It's enough to keep Dungy awake at night, and evidence the Pats are more than ready to knock the Colts from their undefeated perch this weekend.

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Compiled by Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Larry Johnson has spent the last two weeks reminding us that he was, in fact, worthy of that first-overall pick in your fantasy league. The Chiefs also seem to have found something in Damon Huard, who joined the 300-yard club for the first time in his career vs. Seattle last week. The Huard-Johnson combo could be trouble for a Rams' defense that has given up 23, 30 and 38 points in their last three contests. FYI - the total is listed at 48. - MH

The Steelers and Browns will need a miracle to make the playoffs, so it's down to Cincinnati and Baltimore in the AFC North. This is the first of their two meetings in 2006. A Cincy win would mean a tie for first while a loss would give the Ravens some breathing room down the stretch. Baltimore head coach Brian Billick had a great debut last week as the offensive play-caller but knows his team hasn't beaten the Bengals in its last three tries. - JB

The G-men are playing great football and have rattled off four straight wins because of it. Both Eli Manning and Tiki Barber were held in check last week by Tampa Bay, but the defense responded and limited the Bucs to a lone field goal. New York has one of the best pass-rush fronts in the NFL, which is bad news for a Houston side that has forever struggled to protect David Carr. - JB

Regardless of who ends up as Jacksonville's quarterback - David Garrard or Byron Leftwich - it's the defense that will decide most games for the Jags. On Sunday, it held Donovan McNabb to an 18-for-34, 161-yard passing day, by far his lowest output of the season. As for the Titans, they've won two in a row but come into the game with memories of their last visit to Alltel Stadium, a 40-13 loss last year in Week 17. - JB

Last week, Tony Romo became the ninth quarterback to start for the Cowboys since Troy Aikman retired prior to the 2001 season. That’s an average of a new man behind center every 10 games during the past five-plus seasons. For Dallas to have a shot at the playoffs, Bill Parcells needs Romo to settle in. Perhaps, the point spread indicates Romo has made believers of the betting public. Or, more likely, gamblers are aware of the Cowboys’ dominance of the Redskins. Dallas is 14-3 against the spread in the past 17 meetings, including a 27-10 win at Texas Stadium on Sept. 17. - AB

The Packers have gotten healthy off weak opponents, beating Arizona and Miami the past two weeks. Brett Favre goes for three in a row against a Bills’ team that has lost three straight. Buffalo also comes off a bye, which means it’s well-rested along with motivated to end the skid. If you believe Green Bay isn’t a .500 team, then you should lean on the home side in this one. - AB

The Saints won the first meeting 24-21 when Reggie Bush returned a punt 60 yards for a TD on Oct. 8. Bush left Sunday’s loss against the Ravens with an ankle injury that turned out to be just a sprain. He’ll play as New Orleans aims to sweep its NFC South rival. Look for another running back to be featured prominently as Tampa Bay seeks to get Cadillac Williams more involved in the offense. Like the Week 5 game, this one should be close. - AB

Michael Vick has put it all together. For football fans, it’s mesmerizing to watch. He’s stood in the pocket, delivered passes with authority to a variety of receivers, protected the ball and led the Falcons to the top of the NFC South. You want a team other than the Colts and Bears that could emerge as champion? Atlanta’s a hot choice. In the second of back-to-back road games, they get a Detroit team with a pathetic record. The Lions do have weapons on offense and are playing at home off a bye, though, so Atlanta backers should be aware. - AB

Joey Harrington will have to lower his turnovers just to keep this matchup close. He’s facing the best defense in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they’ve managed only 14.6 points per game, making another Bears’ blowout seemingly inevitable.- CR

The Vikings aim to rebound from an embarrassing showing on Monday Night Football. Quarterback Brad Johnson threw for only 185 yards and was picked off three times against New England. This week, he faces the worst defense in the NFL and should light up the scoreboard. - CR

The true impact of Shawne Merriman will be evident Sunday. The Pro Bowl linebacker will miss the next four games after violating the NFL’s drug policy, meaning the usually stingy Chargers run defense (which allows 84.7 yards per game) may actually have a weakness. - CR

It was bad enough trying to figure out if Jake Plummer would be a hero or zero heading into games, now bettors have to do the same with Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers' quarterback threw four interceptions last Sunday against Oakland and was the primary - if not only - reason the Super Bowl champs fell to the Raiders, 20-13. Last year, after starting 7-5, Pittsburgh made the playoffs by rattling off six straight wins to end the season. They'll probably have to go three better in 2006. - JB

With Matt Hasselbeck nursing a knee injury, backup quarterback Seneca Wallace will have to lead the Seahawks against a Raiders’ team that has held opponents to an average of 11.7 points in the last three weeks. Andrew Walter and the offense may actually be able to help their hard-working teammates, because the Seahawks give up a whopping 25.3 points per game. - CR

PHOTO: Tom Brady's steady play is a big reason his Patriots are favored over the unbeaten Colts. (AI Wire Photo)

Note: All NFL lines subject to change.

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