2007 SUPERBOWL FUTURES

For Immediate Release -- March 1st, 2006

A look at the 2007 Super Bowl odds facing the Colts, Patriots and Steelers

By Jason Brough
BodogNation Contributing Writer

Less than a month after the Super Bowl winner is decided might seem like an odd time for an NFL column. But don't forget what Gordon Gekko told young Bud Fox in Wall Street, "Money never sleeps, pal!"

The Bodog Sportsbook has its Super Bowl XLI futures on the board, so let's examine the three offseason favorites to win it all come Feb. 4, 2007 in Miami.

2007 Superbowl Futures Indianapolis Colts - Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/2

Over the last four years they boast a 48-16 regular-season record, yet they've failed to make a single Super Bowl. Still, at 9/2 to finally win it all, there are reasons to believe the Colts offer value.

Indianapolis finished second in both points scored and points allowed this season, and it was the latter that had Colts' backers swooning. A commitment to defense helped the Colts go 9-6-1 against the spread in 2005, despite regularly laying astronomical numbers. Adding to the Colts' cause for 2006 is the recent re-signing of receiver Reggie Wayne, meaning their deadly wideout trio of Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley remains intact.

Is now the right time to bet on the Colts?

This is a tough one.

On the one hand, the Colts were getting odds as low as 2/3 to win Super Bowl XL in December. Granted, they were 13-0 at the time; however, it serves as a warning to how appreciably a team's regular-season accomplishments can affect their Super Bowl odds. (And if the Colts have proven one thing, it's that they can win in the regular season.)

The above in mind, if you like the Colts, now might be the time to lock in.

On the other hand, who's to say Indianapolis will dominate the regular season again? Running back Edgerrin James is testing the free-agent market, meaning Indy could be parting with a four-time Pro Bowler as well as someone who's used to Peyton Manning's relentless checks at the line of scrimmage.

And perhaps more importantly, the Colts will face a much tougher schedule in 2006. In 2005, the combined winning percentage of their opponents was .476. This year, it's .510, and the Colts will play road games in Jacksonville, New England, Dallas, New York (Giants) and Denver. Translation: A less than stellar start to the regular season could result in better Super Bowl odds down the road.

2007 Superbowl Futures New England Patriots - Odds to win Super Bowl: 6/1

For a good example of how a team's Super Bowl odds can balloon during the season, look at the New England Patriots.

The Super Bowl XXXIX champion Pats went into the 2005 season as 4/1 Super Bowl favorites. However, when they started out 4-4 - their fourth loss coming to the Colts and signaling an alleged changing of the AFC guard - bettors abandoned the SS New England in search of newfangled investments like the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. As a result, in November, the Patriots were 14/1 long shots to win the Super Bowl.

Of course, then - wouldn't you know it - the Pats got hot. Tedy Bruschi found his game, Richard Seymour returned from injury, and New England finished the year with six wins and two losses. By December, the Pats were back down to 6/1 at the Bodog Sportsbook, leaving those bettors who just a month before got in at 14/1 feeling pretty good.

Is now the right time to bet on the Patriots?

The Patriots are once again at 6/1 to win Super Bowl XLI, a fair price considering it was uncharacteristic turnovers - a whopping five of them - that cost them their divisional playoff game in Denver. Without those, they'd surely have been favored to knock off the Steelers and Seahawks, and make it four Super Bowls in five years.

What's more, the Pats won't face the toughest schedule in 2006. The AFC East figures to remain a relatively weak division, meaning both an easy slate of divisional games and a good chance of winning the division and guaranteeing a playoff spot. New England's non-divisional road opponents include Tennessee, Green Bay and Minnesota - all winnable propositions. Therefore, it might be a risky strategy to bet the Patriots will struggle early again, because you might not get a better number later.

 

2007 Superbowl Futures Pittsburgh Steelers - Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1

Did you know the Bodog Sportsbook had the Steelers at 22/1 to win the Super Bowl just a month before they pulled it off? It seems like a high number, doesn't it?

But remember the Steelers had to win their last four games of the regular season just to make the playoffs. They then had to win four straight playoff games away from Pittsburgh - against four division winners no less - to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

What are the actual odds of that happening? Far greater than 22/1 you'd have to think.

Is now the right time to bet on the Steelers?

Here's the problem with taking the Steelers now: they play in the AFC.

When teams like San Diego and Kansas City don't even make the playoffs, you know it's a tough conference.

Add to the fact the Steelers play in the same division as the Cincinnati Bengals, and there's a decent chance Pittsburgh will once again be scrambling for a wild-card berth in 2006.

Fortunately for Steelers' backers, with all the contenders in the AFC, it will be tough for the sportsbooks to go much lower than 8/1 as the season progresses, even if Pittsburgh is winning.

In other words, there's limited downside to waiting and seeing how the Steelers' playoff hopes shape up in the first few months of the 2006 season. Sure, you might gain a few points by locking in Pittsburgh to repeat now, but you also might end up betting on a moot point.

PHOTO: Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are 8/1 to defend their Super Bowl title (AI Wire photo).

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