NFL ATS Breakdown

By Alex Davis, Sports Edge pro football writer. The Indianapolis Colts might have the best record in the National Football League, but what bettors really care about is who has the best record in the National Football League against-the-spread.

So, gathering up all our ATS data through the first nine weeks of the season, we quickly find out that the best team there has been ... the Colts.

Wow, that was anticlimactic. Indianapolis is 8-0 straight up in 2006, and a league-best 6-2 against-the-spread. However, while no other team shares Indy’s perfect overall mark, two others have equaled them at 6-2 ATS through nine weeks – the New York Jets and the New Orleans Saints. Those three teams have been your best bets so far. Here’s a breakdown of how each team sits ATS heading into Week 10 of the season.

Indianapolis --- 6-2
New York Jets --- 6-2
New Orleans --- 6-2

Yep, these are your Big Three right now – the mighty Colts, the surprising Saints, and the, uh, football-playing Jets. The Jets are actually a respectable (for them) 4-4 straight-up through eight games this season, so that lofty ATS mark isn’t really that shocking.

If they beat the Pats on the road this week, then we’ll be officially shocked by New York. As for the Saints, they’re not sneaking up on anyone any longer (thanks to their hot start), and their ATS pace could slow down as oddsmakers give them increasing credit.

Atlanta --- 5-3
Baltimore --- 5-3
Chicago --- 5-3
Jacksonville --- 5-3
Kansas City --- 5-3
Minnesota --- 5-3
New England --- 5-3
New York Giants --- 5-3
San Diego --- 5-3
St. Louis --- 5-3

Other than the Big Three, 10 other teams are above the .500 mark against-the-spread this season, with the Rams and Vikings (who are both 4-4 straight-up) scoring the most above their heads. The Bears are actually slumming on this list, as they’re 7-1 straight-up, but two games worse when it counts for gamblers.

The Giants, Patriots, Ravens, and Chargers are all 6-2 straight-up, while the Falcons, Jaguars, and Chiefs are all 5-3. In short, there’s not a clunker to be found on the list; all of the teams are at least decent.

Buffalo --- 4-4
Cleveland --- 4-4
Dallas --- 4-4
Denver --- 4-4
Philadelphia --- 4-4
San Francisco --- 4-4
Tampa Bay --- 4-4
Tennessee --- 4-4

The best team at only 4-4 ATS this season? The Broncos, who are 6-2 straight-up but haven’t done a great job of burying opponents. That creates a dilemma for bettors – it’s hard to bet against a Broncos team that you know is probably going to win, but is also very likely to just edge their opponent.

The Eagles and Cowboys are both also 4-4 straight-up, while the 49ers and Bills are 3-5. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers, Browns, and Titans are just 2-6 straight-up, and have paid off this season for their savvy supporters.

Cincinnati --- 3-4-1
Detroit --- 3-5
Green Bay --- 3-5
Houston --- 3-5
Oakland --- 3-5
Seattle --- 3-5
Washington --- 3-5

The Seahawks, though, have not been paying off despite a 5-3 straight-up mark (and injuries to Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander haven’t help them run up the score). The Bengals have an annoying push at the end of their ATS record, but it’s just a shade below their straight-up record (4-4). Washington and Green Bay both have three actual victories on the year, while the Lions, Texans, and Raiders have won just twice in 2006.

Carolina --- 2-5-1
Arizona --- 2-6
Pittsburgh --- 2-6

Carolina’s disappointing campaign extends all the way to their ATS record – they’re 4-4 straight-up, but an awful 2-5-1 where it counts for bettors. If oddsmakers are more lenient with the Panthers over the second half, though, that record could improve. The Steelers are going through a disastrous 2006, and are probably being avoided by most bettors right now. And the Cardinals? Well, the new stadium hasn’t done much for them.

Miami --- 1-7

Their win over the Bears on Sunday was their first ATS victory of the season – but what are the chances anyone placed money on the Dolphins in that game? At the very least, Miami might’ve won themselves a few more supporters over the season’s second half.

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