Free Week 6 NFL Expert Picks

Cincinnati (-5.5) at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay is 0-4 after their 24-21 loss at New Orleans. Despite the defeat, there were a lot of positives to come out of that game. Rookie quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski had a nice game in his starting debut, and Cadillac Williams rushed for 111 yards. His previous high this season was just 48.

Tampa Bay’s only hope to stay in this game is to control the clock with Williams against a suspect Bengals’ run defense. Every second they have the ball means less offensive possessions for Carson Palmer. The Bengals will have studied Gradkowski intensely during their bye week, so look for the rookie to have less success this week.

Cincinnati is 3-1 and coming off the bye-week. Two weeks ago, they took a 38-13 beating at home from New England that left their confidence shaken. The best way to reverse that is for this offensive juggernaut to come out firing on the road and put some early points on the board.

That should not be hard to do because the Tampa Bay run defense has dropped off considerably from last year, and is ranked 30th in the NFL. The Bengals will give Tampa Bay a dose of running back Rudi Johnson, and Carson Palmer will be able to work off that with the play-action-pass.

Outlook: Cincinnati is still angry about their loss to New England. They take it out on a Tampa team that can’t match points with them. NFL Free Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle (-3) at St. Louis

St. Louis is 4-1 on the season, and that is a surprise to everyone. A breakdown of their schedule shows three straight wins over Arizona, Detroit, and Green Bay. Those are the weak of the weak teams, although St. Louis still gets credit. The Rams also have a win over Denver in Week One, but the Broncos had five turnovers to St. Louis’ none in that game.

Looking at the stats, St. Louis comes into this game with the 8th ranked passing offense, and the 17th ranked rushing offense. The Rams can always move the ball through the air at home, especially when quarterback Marc Bulger is playing as well as he is. Bulger has not thrown an interception this year.

Seattle is 3-1 and coming off the bye-week. They must be a little surprised that they are looking up at St. Louis in the standings, especially considering that they have only lost one game. The Seahawks last game before their bye-week was a 37-6 demolishing by Chicago.

If Seattle is to rebound this week, they will do it without injured running back, Shaun Alexander. Maurice Morris fills in once again, and he should do better than the 36 rushing yards he amassed against the Bears. The bye-week was a good opportunity to get newly acquired receiver, Deion Branch acclimated to the offense. He should be a featured player this week.

Outlook: This has the makings of a high scoring game with the Over / Under at 44.5. That makes giving three points on the road easier to swallow. NFL Free Pick: Seattle

Houston (+13) at Dallas

Houston is 1-3 on the season and coming off the bye-week. So far, they have had three home games against Philadelphia, Washington and Miami. Their only road game was a 19 point loss to Indianapolis in which they were trailing by 27 points at the end of three quarters.

The Texans’ David Carr has the best quarterback rating in the NFL. He will have to be very sharp in this game as they will not be able to run the ball with any success. Carr has been able to succeed even with being sacked 15 times, and that number is sure to increase against a good Dallas pass rush.

Dallas is just 2-2 on the year, but is a much better team than that record indicates. Their 38-24 loss to Philadelphia was draining in many respects, but Coach Bill Parcells is one of the best in the NFL at getting his team to focus on the task at hand. That task is to destroy a vastly inferior Texans team.

The big question circulating around Dallas this week is whether to bench quarterback

Drew Bledsoe for the unproven Tony Romo. Parcells is sticking with Bledsoe, and the reality is that he plays well against weak teams, especially when he is at home. Dallas will have no trouble scoring 25 plus points this week.

Outlook: Dallas bounces back this week in a big way. The 13 points is cause for some consternation, but not enough NFL Free Pick: Dallas

Carolina (+3) at Baltimore

Baltimore is 4-1 after a 13-3 loss to Denver on Monday Night Football. That game was a lot closer than it appears, and the Ravens could have easily won. Still, the Baltimore offense is really struggling right now, as they are ranked 29th in the NFL. This team has too many weapons for that to be the case.

Ravens’ running back, Jamal Lewis has also struggled in the last two games, with just 77 rushing yards total. He may lose more carries to backup Mike Anderson. Tight end, Todd Heap is questionable with an ankle injury, but he will likely play. Heap and the wide receiver core would like to see quarterback Steve McNair throw down the field more, and stop settling for his check-down routes.

Carolina is 3-2 on the year, but 3-0 “WSS”. That of course stands for “With Steve Smith”. Smith is one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL, and he makes the entire difference in their offense. So far this year, the Panthers are averaging 22 points with him, and under 10 without him.

Even with Smith, Carolina is going to have trouble scoring a lot of points against this great Baltimore defense. The key is to not have turnovers which create easily scoring opportunities for Baltimore. Quarterback, Jake Delhomme has only one interception this year, but he is known to cough it up at times when under heavy duress.

Outlook: This looks like about a 16-13 game. Either team has a great chance to win which is why I am taking the points. NFL Free Pick: Carolina

For all NFL betting picks, please visit VIP.com

More VIP.com "The Edge" Articles...