Free Week 2 NFL Expert Picks

Buffalo (+6.5) at Miami

Buffalo (0-1) is still kicking themselves after a 19-17 loss at New England. It was a game that the Bills could have, and should have, won. The good news is that quarterback, J.P. Losman played well for the most part, although he didn’t get the job done in the second half like the rest of his teammates.

Losman is going to find another attacking defense this week in Miami. Running back, Willis McGahee ran hard against New England, but was stopped short on a crucial fourth down. He will need more than 70 rushing yards to win this game. The Bills’ corners shut down the Patriots’ wide receivers last week, but it won’t be as easy against Miami’s group led by Chris Chambers.

Miami (0-1) had a very tough assignment in Week One when they had to play at Pittsburgh on Thursday night. Miami lost 28-17 even though quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was out and replaced by Charlie Batch. Miami signal caller, Daunte Culpepper threw a couple of crucial interceptions in the loss.

Against Buffalo, Ronnie Brown will be featured in a power running game even after gaining only 30 yards last week. Culpepper will not face nearly the amount of pressure that he did in Pittsburgh, although Buffalo did a good job in that area against New England.

Outlook: Miami has Super Bowl aspirations and they can not afford to start 0-2. Their home field and talent advantage gives them a decisive win. NFL Free Pick: Miami

Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Atlanta

Tampa Bay lost 27-0 at home to Baltimore last week in a game where they couldn’t run or throw the ball. On the flipside, the Buccaneers’ defense did not look anything like the dominant unit we are used to seeing at home. That combination spelled one long day for Coach Jon Gruden.

Cadillac Williams rushed for only 22 yards last week, but he must be the featured player against Atlanta. Quarterback, Chris Simms is not effective when the pressure is all on him, as evidenced by his three picks last week. Look for Simms to rebound, and play a much steadier game overall, even in a hostile environment.

Atlanta is 1-0 after a 20-6 win at Carolina. Atlanta was able to run the ball with abandon with Warrick Dunn, and Michael Vick was efficient through the air and running when he had to. The Atlanta’ defense played stout against the run, and also did a good job harassing Panthers’ quarterback, Jake Delhomme.

Dunn is sure to get plenty of carries this week, but Tampa Bay will make him work a lot harder. Atlanta will go to the three-receiver set with Michael Jenkins, Roddy White and Ashley Lelie to try to create match-up problems, but it will only be effective if Vick is on target down the field.

One injury note for this game is that Atlanta defensive ends, John Abraham and Patrick Kerney, are both uncertain due to injuries.

Outlook: Two teams with very different starts last week have the tables turned a bit. Tampa Bay gets the cover and may win the game outright. NFL Free Pick: Tampa Bay

New Orleans (-2) at Green Bay

Green Bay is still trying to recover from a 26-0 debacle against Chicago. The one bright spot was that Ahman Green was able to prove that he was healthy, running for 110 yards even with a suspect offensive line. Quarterback, Brett Favre was again careless with the ball with two interceptions.

You have to figure that Favre is going to want to come out and prove himself in this game. That can be a double-edge sword as it can lead to more turnovers. Ahman Green must get more than the 20 carries he got last week to keep Favre’s attempts at a minimum.

New Orleans is 1-0 after a 19-14 win at Cleveland. The Browns are not exactly an offensive juggernaut with all the injuries they have, but it was still impressive that New Orleans out-gained Cleveland, 326-186 in total yards. 151 of those Saints’ yards came via the running game with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush.

McAllister and Bush will cause problems for most defenses this year because of their different running styles. The Saints also have a quarterback in Drew Brees who can make defenses pay with the play-action pass. If the defense can even be average, this team will be dangerous all year.

Outlook: New Orleans is looking for it second straight road win, and Green Bay is trying to avoid a second straight home loss.

NFL Free Pick: There is some risk here, but New Orleans has value at less than a field goal spread. Pick: New Orleans

Detroit (+8.5) at Chicago

Chicago is 1-0 after their win at Green Bay. It was a good start for quarterback, Rex Grossman who threw for 262 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The Bears were a passing game away from possibly making the Super Bowl last year, and having an offensive balance could get them to the “Big Game” this year.

The Bears’ running game is a two-prong attack with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. It doesn’t matter who starts or who rushes more, together they can be lethal. Detroit did a great job on Seattle running back, Shaun Alexander last week, holding him to 51 yards on 19 carries.

Detroit is 0-1 after a 9-6 home loss to Seattle. The fact that the Lions could hold the high powered Seattle offense to just six points means that coach Rod Marinelli’s new defensive approach is working. However, it appears they are still struggling to learn the complicated Mike Martz’ offense.

Detroit is definitely going to struggle to score points against a very good Chicago defense. The Lions’ defense needs to make sure that receiver Muhsin Muhammad doesn’t run wild, and force Grossman out of his comfort zone by throwing to other wide-outs.

Outlook: With the Over / Under at 32 points, the pundits believe this will be a very low scoring game. NFL Free Pick: Take the points. Pick: Detroit

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