Free Week 11 NFL Expert Picks

By Jeff Wilson: Week 11 has four selections, plus another three games that just missed the cut. The two best teams in the league are picked this week in Indianapolis and Chicago. The Colts are getting the thumbs up and the Bears are getting the thumbs down.

Editor’s Note: The selections in this column are purely the opinion of the writer, and are not being endorsed by any or all parties.

Games Considered But Not Picked

Oakland (+9.5) at Kansas City: Considered picking Kansas City. Kansas City is 5-4 on the year, and desperate for a win to increase their playoff chances. The Chiefs have won their last three games at home, while Oakland is 0-4 on the road and has just a 2-7 record overall.

Kansas City’s Trent Green is back at quarterback this week, and while he is the better long term solution than Damon Huard, I am not sure how he will play his first week back. Aaron Brooks may also start at quarterback for Oakland, and he can’t be any worse than Andrew Walter. Those two factors give some cause to pause.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Carolina: Considered picking Carolina. Carolina is 5-4 after their Monday night victory over Tampa Bay. The Panthers are still having trouble running the ball, and their 3rd down conversions are nothing to write home about. Still, it feels like this team is about to go on a run.

St. Louis (4-5) is on a four game losing streak and has basically handed over the NFC West division to Seattle. To make matters worse, offensive tackle, Orlando Pace is out for the season and that will affect the passing game. The Panthers look like at least a touchdown winner here.

Washington (+3) at Tampa Bay. Considered picking Washington. The big news this week is Washington switching over to Jason Campbell at quarterback instead of veteran Mark Brunell. That is either a sign of desperation or brilliance, depending on your viewpoint.

Tampa Bay is 2-7 overall, but a fairly respectable 2-3 at home. Rookie quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski did well early on, but he is struggling now that NFL defenses have started to game-plan for him. Tampa Bay should not be favored by three points over anyone (except maybe Arizona), and Campbell should give the Skins a much needed spark.

NFL Week 11 Selections

Chicago (-7) at NY Jets: Chicago is 8-1 and has a two game advantage over any other NFC team. That is in part thanks to their 38-20 win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football. The Jets are 5-4 after a huge win over New England. Both teams need to avoid an emotional letdown this week.

New York is 2-2 at home this year, but 3-1 ATS at home. The Jets played Indianapolis very tough at home in a three point loss, and the crowd is going to be extremely fired up for this game after last week. The Bears can lose this game if they fall behind early, but expect a close contest either way. NFL Free Pick: NY Jets

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cleveland: The Steelers (3-6) are coming off two solid home efforts against Denver and New Orleans. Pittsburgh actually lost the Denver game, 31-20, but six turnovers had a lot to do with it. This team is still playing hard, but now they have to translate it on the road.

Cleveland is also 3-6, but has played well the last three weeks, going 2-1. Reuben Droughns is questionable for this game, and the Browns are having trouble running the ball anyhow. That means quarterback Charlie Frye will need several big passing plays to win. Frye will make some, but this Steelers’ team has too much in reserve. NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh

Buffalo (+2.5) at Houston: Buffalo (3-6) played very well in a close loss to Indianapolis last week, but they are still only 1-4 away from home this year. Running back, Willis McGahee is out again this week, and while Anthony Thomas is a good back-up, McGahee is missed as a home run threat.

Houston is also 3-6 on the season, but has played much better the last month with two wins over Jacksonville, and a close road loss to the Giants.

Quarterback David Carr is listed as questionable, but he will play, and I believe the Texans are a good value at home at less than a field goal favorite. NFL Free Pick: Houston

Indianapolis (-1) at Dallas: The Colts (9-0) opened up as a one point favorite in this game and it has held steady. Indianapolis is shooting for a perfect 16-0 season, and they seem to play better against good competition (Denver, NY Giants, New England), and struggle against lesser teams (Tennessee, Buffalo).

Dallas (5-4) definitely belongs in the good competition category, especially at home. However, the Cowboys have not won two games in a row since Week 4, and a 27-10 win over Arizona doesn’t inspire confidence that they can beat the best team in the NFL right now. NFL Free Pick: Indianapolis

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