Free Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

This NFL Picks column against the spread is in its 5th year, and while the record has not been spectacular all five years, it is always entertaining. So enjoy this weekend, and lets get on to the Week One selections.

Buffalo (+9) at New England

The Bills went 5-11 last season, and open up this year with about as hard a game as humanly possible. The big question in the off-season for Buffalo was who would be their starting quarterback. After a three-way competition, the nod was given to J.P Losman, a 2004 first round pick.

Losman has struggled in his brief career, and Buffalo knows they can not win this game with him throwing 40 times. They will try to pound the ball with Willis McGahee, and catch New England over the top with a long one to Lee Evans. On defense, Buffalo needs to shut down Corey Dillon, hope Laurence Maroney is still injured, and then pray Tom Brady has an off day.

It has been a tumultuous week for the Patriots (10-6 in 2005). Receiver, Deion Branch is refusing to honor the last year of his contract, and is now filing a grievance because the team hasn’t traded him. His absence leaves them very thin at wide receiver even though New England did acquire Doug Gabriel from Oakland.

The Patriots’ offensive engine lives and dies with Brady. Even without Branch, there are still enough receiving targets at tight end and out of the backfield to put up a lot of points. The Patriots’ defense hopes to have Tedy Bruschi back, and his presence is needed as inside linebacker is the one weak spot of the defense.

Outlook: The spread in this game has jumped from eight to nine points. Still, I can’t envision this game being closer than double digits. NFL Free Pick: New England

Philadelphia (-5) at Houston

Houston was 2-14 last year and that meant that changes were going to come in full force. Head coach, Gary Kubiak arrives after being the offensive coordinator with Denver. He will implement the Broncos’ zone blocking scheme. Unfortunately, running back Domanick Davis is hurt and out for the year.

Wali Lundy and the newly signed Ron Dayne will lead the rushing attack, but the offensive line is still a work in progress. Everyone thinks that David Carr is ready to become a good quarterback if he stops getting sacked so much, but the Eagles’ relentless defensive pressure is not a good match-up for him.

Philadelphia finished last season at 6-10, as the team fell apart after quarterback Donovan McNabb got injured. They were also hurt by the Terrell Owens saga. McNabb is back healthy while Owens is now the problem of Bill Parcells in Dallas. At the very least, the locker room should be a lot more peaceful this year.

Eagles’ running back, Brian Westbrook will be ready to play this week despite a foot injury. The Eagles have promised to rely on the running game more so that their offense is balanced. McNabb will still determine the outcome of most games, but this contest offers a good chance to start running the ball effectively.

Outlook: Philadelphia is a sleeper pick to win the NFC conference. They show why this week with a convincing win on the road. NFL Free Pick: Philadelphia

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Kansas City

Kansas City went 10-6 last year, but they have a new head coach as Herm Edwards replaced the retired Dick Vermeil. Edwards is known as a players coach from his Jets days, and he had a mixed record of success. He is taking over a pretty good team here, and the expectations are to at least make the playoffs.

In this game, the Chiefs will test Larry Johnson early and often against the Bengals’ run defense. The problem is that the Kansas City offensive line is in disarray and the entire offense is still adjusting to new offensive coordinator. Mike Solari. If the Bengals can hold Johnson under 100 yards rushing, they will have a big advantage.

The Bengals were 11-5 last year and had a good chance of beating Pittsburgh in their Wild Card game before Palmer got hurt. Palmer returned from his ACL injury for the last two pre-season games, and he looked very sharp. More importantly, he is not showing any signs that his knee will impair him for this game.

With Palmer under center, Cincinnati has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, while the defense is where they have been hurt in the past. However, this is an improved unit with big body Sam Adams in the middle of the defensive line.

They would love to have the suspended Odell Thurman available for this game, but they will still put forth a good effort without him.

Outlook: Kansas City is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, but this Chiefs team looks to have problems at the outset of the year. NFL Free Pick: Cincinnati

Dallas (+2.5) at Jacksonville

Jacksonville was 12-4 last year and 6-2 at home. They lost receiver Jimmy Smith to retirement which is a big blow to the passing game. The Jaguars also lost running back, Greg Jones for the year with a knee injury. Fragile Fred Taylor is still the featured back, but Jones was expected to play a big part of the running game.

Quarterback, Byron Leftwich will likely be asked to throw the ball 30-35 times in this game. That is more than the Jaguars are comfortable with, but they are going to have to match points with Dallas. There were rumors that Leftwich could be replaced by backup David Garrard if he struggles, but this is his team for now.

Dallas was 9-7 last year, but with Bill Parcells as their coach, and the addition of receiver Terrell Owens, this team is thinking Super Bowl. Owens will play in this game despite missing most of the pre-season, but he is still capable of scoring a touchdown or two, and being the hero of the game.

Dallas will have trouble running the ball up the middle against the great pair of Jacksonville defensive tackles. The Cowboys’ Julius Jones has enough speed to run outside, but Parcells will likely use the passing game to soften up the Jaguars’ defense. Quarterback, Drew Bledsoe needs to bring his “A’ game and avoid costly turnovers.

Outlook: Another pick of a road underdog getting less than three points. A risky proposition, but one worth taking. NFL Free Pick: Dallas

More VIP.com "The Edge" Articles...