Before we get into this week’s
pick, we need to do the post-mortems from Week
Two. The college pick of Texas (-2.5) over Ohio
State, and the NFL pick of Arizona (-8) over San
Francisco were both unsuccessful. It puts the
year to date college record at 0-2, and 0-1 in
the NFL.
And even though there is
no “crying allowed” in this column,
I have to get this off my chest. Arizona was up
by 10 points over San Francisco with just over
30 seconds to go. The 49ers were driving in Arizona
territory, and decided to kick a quick field goal
and then go for the touchdown with the few seconds
remaining.
San Francisco had no chance
of tying the game, but they did get the fortunate
cover at 34-27. Overall, these things do happen,
but it doesn’t make them any less frustrating.
Miami (+4.5) at Louisville
When Louisville (2-0) started
off this season, their quarterback and running
back duo of Brian Brohm and Michael Bush was the
best in the country. That all changed when Bush
broke his leg in an opening 59-28 win over Kentucky,
ending his season before it really started.
Bush was certainly going
to be a huge weapon in this Miami game, but the
cupboard is not bare without him. George Stripling
and Kolby Smith both looked very good against
Kentucky, and in a 62-0 blowout over Temple. They
will, at a minimum, make the Hurricanes respect
the running game.
Still, Brohm would be a lot
more comfortable knowing that his bruising running
back was lined up behind him. Brohm must be extremely
accurate and disciplined in this game knowing
that he is going against one of the best secondaries
in the nation. He is also going to see a lot more
pressure than he is used to from the Miami front
four.
Miami is 1-1 after a 13-10
home loss to Florida State, and a 51-10 win over
Division 1-AA, Florida A&M. The Hurricanes
know that the best way to keep the explosive Louisville
offense off the field is to run the ball with
success.
Against Florida A&M,
Miami had four running backs (Derron Thomas, Javarris
James, Tyrone Moss, and Charlie Jones) who gained
at least 62 yards. Even the fourth string rushers
at Miami are extremely talented, and the Cardinals
will get a taste of that depth on Saturday.
To keep the Louisville defense
honest, quarterback Kyle Wright will frequently
go with play-action. His favorite target is tight
end, Greg Olsen, but he needs to get more production
out of his talented, but underachieving, wide
receiving core.
While the Miami offense does
not have the explosiveness of Louisville, they
will be able to match points against a beatable
Cardinals’ defense.
Summary and Outlook
You have to like the effort
that Louisville has shown even after the Bush
injury. They believe they can still contend for
the Big East championship and a BCS bid. Heck,
Coach Bobby Petrino probably has his team believing
they can win the national championship.
Miami is still smarting over
their earlier loss to Florida State. The Canes
have enough talent on both sides of the ball to
overcome the home field advantage. They also have
enough pride in their program that they take offense
to being an underdog to a Big East school, even
on the road.
The play is Miami with the
cover, and they have a good chance to win the
game outright.
Pick: Miami
For
all College Football lines, please visit VIP.com
Posted by miker at September
15, 2006 09:34 AM
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