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I've got a TON to say so let's get at it
Some Gambling Advice
Unsolicited betting advice:
I have mentioned this before in this column, but
it bears repeating. One of my favorite bets is the
halftime line bet. But only in certain circumstances.
This weeks Monday night game was one of those circumstances.
The idea is to use the bookmakers
knowledge against him. Know your enemy.
Going into Monday night the point total line was
a ridiculous 58 according to my source. Not a number
you like to touch even in a slugfest like this game
promised to be. But an interesting thing happened.
There were only 20 points in the first half. Therefore,
if you use the oddsmakers math before the game started,
there were going to be 38 more points scored in
the game. The oddsmakers are pretty sharp. They
are usually very close. But when they set the halftime
line, they can't sell a 38. So they set the line
at 28. With this10 point differential now you are
in gravy territory. You bet the over and collect
your money. Sweet bet. It worked Monday night for
me and it works almost every time I find such a
glaring hole in the numbers. Betting football games
is hard. You have to take the easy ones when they
give them to you. And, oh yeah there were 59 points
scored in the game.
Why
NFL Management Matters
Kansas City has a red-hot
offense yet a losing record because its defense
is surrendering 26.3 points per game. Why should
this come as any surprise since, in the second half
of the 2003 season, the Kansas City defense allowed
26.6 points per game? Then, in the offseason, the
Chiefs made no attempt to sign defensive players.
Kansas City management decided that a defense that
was allowing 26.6 points per game would be sufficient
for the 2004 season. What Kansas City management
got is a defense allowing almost exactly its previous
average.
Why
NFL Tactics Matter
Is God punishing us for watching
football all day on Sunday by making the Sunday
Night games unwatchable? I mean I know he is punishing
us with Joe Theisman and Paul Maguire, but man oh
man......the wrath of Sunday Night Football is almost
unbearable. Punts, field goals, penalties, turnovers,
and a mind numbing announcing crew do not make for
good entertainment. Could we please get some more
drunk sideline guests like last year please.
Pittsburgh is the league's
hottest team, and while Ben Roethlisberger is getting
the press, the Steelers defense explains much of
the team's success. Currently the Pittsburgh defense
is second best in yards allowed and tied for third
best in points allowed, and that's after back-to-back
games against New England and Philadelphia, two
high-scoring clubs.
Honestly, how many Steelers
defensive starters can you name without looking?
Pittsburgh does not blitz much -- usually a linebacker
pass rushes, but since the team employs a base 3-4,
that still only adds up to the conventional four
pass rushers. What's effective about the Pittsburgh
defense is that offenses are often confused regarding
where the rush will come from: Of the seven-man
defensive front, it's impossible to predict, play-to-play,
which four will rush. Also, Pittsburgh rushers execute
usual "twists," rather than simply blasting
straight ahead as most rushers do. Sunday against
the Eagles, Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick
LeBeau several times had two linebackers line up
over the Philadelphia offensive guards, then rush
crossing each other -- making an "X" pattern,
the left linebacker rushing right and the right
linebacker rushing left. When this happened, the
Philadelphia guards were confused about which way
to turn, and Donovan McNabb had to throw the ball
away to avoid being sacked.
Stat of the Week
In consecutive games against
unbeaten New England and Philadelphia, a combined
13-0 when Pittsburgh faced them, the Steelers jumped
to a combined 51-6 lead.
Stats of the Week
No. 2
San Diego, last year's last-place finisher, has
scored the most points of any NFL team.
Stats of the Week No.
3
Arizona and Oakland, which both won on the road,
ended a combined 0-30 road losing streak.
Stats of the Week
No. 4
Atlanta has scored 170 points and surrendered 170
points.
Stats of the Week
No. 5
The Steelers outgained unbeaten Philadelphia by
307 yards.
Stats of the Week No.
6
From the late second quarter through the middle
of the third quarter, Buffalo held the ball for
27 consecutive plays and 11:03 of clock time.
Stats of the Week No.
7
Since taking the field for their Super Bowl appearances,
Carolina and Oakland, which met Sunday, are a combined
8-27.
Stats of the Week
No. 8
Kansas City scored 31 points, gained 459 yards and
lost.
Stats of the Week
No. 9
Kansas City is averaging 30 points per game and
has a losing record.
Stats of the Week
No. 10
In two meetings this year, the Browns held Jamal
Lewis to 362 fewer yards than he gained against
them in two meetings last year.
Stats of the Week No.
11
With 15 touchdowns, Priest Holmes has more touchdowns
than four entire teams -- Cincinnati, Jacksonville,
Washington and Miami. With 12 touchdowns, Shaun
Alexander has as many as two entire teams, Washington
and Miami.
Stats of the Week No.
12
Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper have combined
for 47 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions.
Nothing But Random Thoughts
Adam Vinatieri's TD pass to
Troy Brown surprised the Rams, and has also confused
some Fantasy football League owners. We have received
many questions asking if Vinatieri would receive
credit for his scoring toss. The answer is that
in FantasyFootball leagues, kickers only receive
credit for kicking points, however this is for the
majority of leagues. I’m in another where
the kicker did get credit for the touchdown pass.
It’s all in how your league commissioner sets
things up. Suggest it to your commish for next year
if you don’t have it. But knowing Bill we
won’t see this play again till 2008 when all
of a sudden he brings it out of the closet again.
In most leagues basically Vinatieri
or any other kicker who throws a TD pass this season
will not be awarded six points. Receivers, however,
do get credit for TD receptions, so Brown does get
six points for his catch. We hope this clears up
any confusion for you in FantasyFootball league
play.
Tight
End
There is an apparent shift
in talent going on at the position, where Antonio
Gates, with apologies to Tony Gonzalez, now reigns
supreme. Outside of those two, though, no one has
been reliable, and you might have to accept good
performances from the position as a bonus. Don't
count on adequate production in any week from your
tight end unless you own Gates or Gonzalez.
Some players were thought
to be among a new iNFLux of quality talent at the
position, yet have recently dropped off in production.
New England's Daniel Graham began the season by
catching five TD passes in his first four games,
but has not scored a touchdown in his past four
games and has no catches in his last two. Tom Brady
continues to spread the ball around, yet has looked
less in the direction of Graham, who has started
to attract more defensive attention.
The outlook at tight end is
bleaker than ever unless you have Gates or Gonzalez,
so don't have high expectations. Any time you can
get one TD from your tight end, you should consider
it a good week. And if you're getting zeroes from
a guy like Graham, don't expect to find any great
alternatives. Keep him on your roster in case he
starts to play respectably again, which is very
possible. Most tight ends endure some sort of cold
spell, and won't perform well on a regular basis.
Take what you can get when you can get it.
Philadelphia's L.J. Smith has
just one TD reception in his past six games, and
has not been the same since suffering a shoulder
injury earlier in the year. Smith has continued
to play, yet has not been getting open often during
the past few weeks. San Francisco's Eric Johnson
has cooled off as well, with only 87 receiving yards
in his past three games. Jason Witten has played
well recently, yet he might simply be riding a hot
streak. We'll soon see if he can keep playing well,
but he wasn't productive earlier in the year. With
injuries decimating Dallas' receiving corps, Witten
should continue to perform well overall.
Updated
Player News
Kelvin Garmon - G
- CLE Browns placed guard Kelvin Garmon
on injured reserve with a torn ACL, ending his season.
The Browns are reeling after consecutive last minute
losses to Philadelphia and Cleveland.
Leigh Bodden - DB -
CLE Browns placed cornerback Leigh Bodden
on injured reserve with a chest injury, ending his
season.
Bodden was Cleveland's best special teams player.
Brent Smith - G -
NYJ Jets released tackle Brent Smith
Derek Pagel - DB -
NYJ Jets placed safety Derek Pagel on injured
reserve with a calf injury, ending his season.
Shawn Wooden - DB
- MIA Dolphins safety Shawn Wooden will
spend the rest of the season on the reserve/physically
unable to perform list.
He suffered a lower back injury during the first
week of training camp.
Bill Gramatica - K
- MIA Dolphins waived kicker Bill Gramatica.
The man who once tore a knee ligament while doing
a lambada dance could be finished. He missed an
extra point in Miami's one-point loss Sunday.
Jeno James - G - MIA
Dolphins guard underwent surgery on his
right knee Tuesday.
He'll be evaluated on week-to-week basis. If it
was arthroscopic surgery, he'll probably be back
by week twelve
Lorenzo Bromell - DL
- NYG Giants activated defensive tackle
Lorenzo Bromell from the physically-unable-to-perform
list.
He'll help backup the suddenly thin Giants defensive
line.
NFL
News
Miami Dolphins coach Dave
Wannstedt called it quits Tuesday midway through
a dismal season that began with the retirement of
running back Ricky Williams and has left the team
with the NFL's worst record at 1-8.Defensive coordinator
Jim Bates was promoted to interim coach.
"As you might imagine, this was not a very
easy decision from a personal standpoint, but I
believe it is a proper decision at this time for
being a professional," Wannstedt said. "Somebody
has to accept the responsibility. I am the head
coach and that falls on me."
Randy Moss probably will miss
another game this Sunday because of his strained
right hamstring.
Though Moss made progress during rehabilitation
over the weekend, coach Mike Tice said Tuesday the
star receiver likely will be listed as doubtful
for the game at rival Green Bay. Moss missed the
first game of his seven-year career Monday night
when the Vikings (5-3) lost at Indianapolis. The
All-Pro hasn't caught a pass since he got hurt in
the second quarter of Minnesota's game at New Orleans
on Oct. 17.
The Pro Bowl defensive end
Michael Strahan had his season ended on Sunday after
tearing a pectoral muscle in the third quarter of
a 28-21 loss to the Chicago Bears.
Fellow starting defensive end Keith Washington also
was lost for the season on Sunday with a knee injury.
What a fluke couple of plays for the now doomed
defense of the Giants. Better put Eli in cuz this
ship is about to start sinking.
One week after Philadelphia's
Terrell Owens imitated Ray Lewis, Pittsburgh's Hines
Ward stepped forward with a dead-on impersonation
of Owens and his Fly-Like-An-Eagle routine. Only,
unlike Owens, he didn't do it once; he did it twice,
following each of his first-quarter scores by flapping
his arms for takeoff. So how come nobody's calling
the guy names today? If you have to ask you don't
know much about Hines Ward, and there are more people
in that club than you'd imagine.
We have a change atop the MVP meter, with Colts
QB Peyton Manning overtaking Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper.
Here’s to hoping you saw them square off on
“Monday Night Football.” Manning excelled,
even as Minnesota’s defensive line consistently
pressured him, completing 23-of-29 passes for 268
yards and four touchdowns. Culpepper was no slouch
either, completing 16-of-19 throws for 169 yards
and a score.
I might be in the minority, but I happen to think
Culpepper played just as well as Manning. Sure,
Manning’s numbers are better, but that’s
because he had more weapons. He could take more
chances. Culpepper, playing without WR Randy Moss,
couldn’t take many shots down the field. But
he played within himself and kept his team in the
game with accurate throws and an occasional smart
dash from the pocket.
Yet it’s clear Culpepper
is in danger of falling out of the MVP race. The
deep throws to Moss sway voters, not solid game
management. If Moss can come back in the next couple
of weeks, Culpepper still may have a shot.
Now, the Week Nine
MVP meter, with last week’s rankings in parentheses:
1. Colts QB Peyton Manning (3)
2. Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper (1)
3. Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (2)
4. Chargers QB Drew Brees (—)
5. Giants RB Tiki Barber (T4)
6. Patriots QB Tom Brady (T6)
T7. Chiefs RB Priest Holmes (T9)
T7. Eagles WR Terrell Owens (T4)
9. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (T6)
10. Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander (—)
Dropping out: Texans QB David
Carr, Vikings WR Randy Moss.
He Said What???
Cowboys head coach Bill
Parcells quoted in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram
on why he hasn’t been harder on his team:
“I have taken a lower-key approach with this
team. I have not been hammering them. I have not
been beating them up. I’ve been encouraging
them the whole way. Quite apparently, I’m
not getting through.”
Buccaneers head coach Jon Gruden quoted in the Tampa
Tribune on playing the Falcons, a team put together
by former Bucs general manager Rich McKay, this
Sunday: “Rich is not playing in the game and
I am not either, so it was something that was very
sensitive and always will be sensitive. He was a
great general manager here, but that is not for
me to concern myself with. He is not here, he is
in Atlanta. It is a big game for them and us. The
players will decide the outcome. It has no bearing
in my opinion.”
Rams head coach Mike
Martz quoted in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch ranting
about where the blame should fall for the team’s
struggles this season: “You guys have been
here long enough to know that I’ve never tried
to mislead you or sugarcoat anything. If I’ve
screwed something up I’ll tell you. I’ll
try to take a bullet (for players) when you can
to help them. (But) there comes a time when some
of these guys have just got to … show up and
make a play. That’s not a cop-out or brushing
it off onto (the players). But I’m upset.
We’ve got some guys we’re counting on
and they’ve got to step up.”
49ers head coach Dennis Erickson
quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle about rumors
that he was interested in moving on from the job
with the Niners: “It upsets me because there
is nothing further from the truth. Like I said before,
I hope I have the opportunity to turn this around.
That’s my competitive blood.”
Now get
back to work...
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On Football Writer Ray Monohan is an NFL analyst
with 10+ years of experience covering the NFL. He
provides a great perspective on the NFL with player
and team insight unmatched in the NFL football betting
industry.
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